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rijk

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Posts posted by rijk

    BRK buying back stock @ 110% of BV!!

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    with the added downside protection in place,...  has anybody thought about selling put options?

     

    the jan 13 put strike 60 goes for 5

     

    -what is the chance of brk dropping below 60?

     

    -how terrible would it be to be forced to buy brk at 55 when buffett just told us that the stock is significantly undervalued at 70?

     

    my only reservation is that 3 (watsa, klarman, rodriguez) of the top 10 investors have recently expressed their concerns about the current state of affairs and the potential for a significant market correction

     

    even with the buy back authorization, i have no illusion that brk would be excempted if a major correction would take place, maybe brk could limit the damage to half of a market correction? a 50% market correction could maybe be limited to a 25%/$17.50 impact for brk, i.e. s&p 600 would take brk to $52.50, only slightly below the 55 excersize price?

     

    does the risk reward look interesting here?

     

    regards

    rijk

    money market fund or cash

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    yes i am european but i am mostly exposed to the us markets & currency

     

    my concern is not so much about capital protection but more about being able to access the cash when it would be most beneficial, i.e. during a market crash and to avoid the risk of a repeat of what happened in 2008

     

    i am not sure at which level panic exists right now, but it feels to me like the vulcano has been rumbling for a while and an eruption could happen in the near future.....  bottomline, the current debt crisis is not going away and something is going to happen probably sooner than later.......

     

    regards

    rijk

     

    TD Ameritrade and the Reserve money funds

     

    The firm's customers were approached by TD Ameritrade brokers and recommended to invest their liquid money in a money fund managed by The Reserve, RYPQX (the Reserve Yield Plus Class R fund), according to investors in the fund.[17][18][19][20] More than 98% of the fund had been sold to TD Ameritrade's clients, as disclosed in a statement from the Reserve on July 29, 2008.[21][improper synthesis?] When the fund broke the buck along with several other Reserve money funds in September, 2008, money assets of thousands of TD Ameritrade clients (including many senior citizens) were frozen. For the larger Reserve Primary Fund that also broke the buck, TD Ameritrade said it will reimburse clients for up to a 3% loss. Other Reserve funds, such as the Interstate Tax Exempt Fund, were sold by TD Ameritrade, and were caught up in the Primary Fund's Failure, leaving investors in these funds without liquidity. However, the Reserve Yield Plus fund previously marketed by the company is not covered by the offer

     

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TD_Ameritrade

    money market fund or cash

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    ameritrade offers two option to keep your cash

    -FDIC INSURED DEPOSIT ACCOUNT IDA03 NOT COVERED BY SIPC  - Balances reflected in your brokerage account are FDIC-insured and are held by TD Bank N.A and TD Bank USA, N.A., or both (up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank). The IDA balances are not covered by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) protection applicable to your brokerage account.

    -TD AMERITRADE Cash - Cash is held in your brokerage account, protected by Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC) coverage applicable to the account against brokerage failure (up to $250,000).

     

    rates are identical, basically 0, what i am concerned about is to have cash frozen in a mm fund  during a market crash

     

    what is the safest option and would the TD Ameritrade cash option eliminate this risk?

     

    regards

    rijk

    The fashion store industry

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Probably the best advantage you can get in this businesses is management. If the person/people who run the co are great merchandisers, they will do well and take share from competitors. Ex. Mickey Drexler, Jim Sinegal, Leslie Wexner, Ron Johnson. As in investing, it's an art, not a science.

     

    if this is correct, then ARO could be an interesting opportunity, look at the last 10 years ROE (25 - 65 %) & ROA (12 - 30%)

     

    is the worldwide internet launch a desperate move or could this aeropostale back on track?

     

    http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/427839

    What a Lovely Frickin' Day!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

     

    Because Fairfax is leveraged 4 to 1 asset to equity and has over $2B in debt.  They cannot afford a 25% drop in their portfolio.  If that happened they would never be able to write business again!  Cheers!

     

    this comment would indicate that the equity hedge is primarily driven by concerns regarding market valuations instead of being driven by leverage/insurance regulations...????

     

    Your equity position is 100 percent hedged. Why?

    If you looked at 2008–09 as just another post-war recession,

    then you would be very optimistic. You would say,

    “Things are going to continue to do well. Yes, the recovery

    is a little slower than it has been, but things will work out

    and you should be investing in equities.” On the other

    hand, if you thought 2008–09 was, in insurance parlance,

    a once-in-50-years event, like the Great Depression was in

    the 1930s and like Japan is and was in the past 20 years,

    then you might say you have to be careful. Because stock

    markets from the bottom of 2009 have gone up more than

    100 percent and interest rate spreads have come down

    dramatically, down to the levels (and perhaps even below

    the levels) of 2007 and 2008.

    US Home Builders

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    what a difference a month makes, several home builders are now trading below bv and at low single digit p/e (based on pre bubble normalized earnings power)

     

    phm p/bv 0.75 p/e 3

    len p/bv 0.74 p/e 4

    ryl p/bv 0.8 p/e 2

    mdc p/bv 0.8 p/e 4

    tol p/bv 0.96 p/e 10

    dhi p/bv 1.1 p/e 6

     

    buffett talks about excess housing inventory of only 1 million and a recovery by mid 2013

     

    http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/11845

     

    based on current economic conditions and outlook, it might be wise to pick "the last one standing" any suggestions?

     

    regards

    rijk

    What a Lovely Frickin' Day!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    "S&P500 today is nearly the exact same level it was 13 years ago in 1998...13 years ago!  It was overvalued then and it is undervalued today."

     

     

    why would fairfax keep a substantial equity hedge (86% as of Q2) at S&P 500 1062.5 level if markets are undervalued today at S&P 500 1150 level?

     

    why does the Shiller PE/10 indicate a 25% overvaluation today versus historical average if the market is undervalued at current levels?

     

    not trying to be a pain, just wanting to learn........

     

    regards

    rijk

     

    http://www.multpl.com/

    What did everyone buy today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    spread out your buys, we still have another 50% downside before stocks start to be valued in bargain territory, i.e. single digit P/E 10 valuations......

     

     

    regards

    rijk

     

    http://www.multpl.com/

     

    Are we looking at the same stocks? I am seeing plenty of that "single digit P/E 10" stuff?  ???

     

    edit : Nvm, you were talking about Schiller's PE...

     

    50% seems crazy. Many companies are already under 2009's low valuations. People seem to be looking at price ("All that downside!!!!") but don't see value. I don't get it.  

     

    "The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing." Phil Fisher

     

    Do you truly believe we can get to an S&P500 of 560 without any major depression? I am just not seeing it and the market acts like it is a serious recession already and some things will never recover.

     

    not saying we will see S&P 600, all i am saying is, be realistic, don't think that today's market is cheap, it's not, based on historic standards, the market is still overvalued by roughly 20% and we have only corrected 20% sofar from a 50% overvalued situation.....

     

    regards

    rijk

     

     

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