Valuebo
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Everything posted by Valuebo
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I think you meant to say cover his short... Yes, of course. Sorry. I'm too used to 'long' terminology because I don't do shorts :) Two topics (the Netflix one and this one) got merged or something it seems because if I remember correctly peter_burke_ceo's post was in the Netflix topic first. ??? --- Netflix -36% pre-market btw.
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Tha, this is funny:
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Was he long? Boring repetitions of old ideas (BRK), stealing ideas without adding much value which you could expect from such a guy, weird picks and a lot of free time on his hands to make endlessly long presentations. Not sure what to think of this guy at times...
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BAC Closes @ High of Day (Only Second Time Since March 2011)
Valuebo replied to moore_capital54's topic in General Discussion
Google Finance: Range 6.49 - 6.74 Closing Price: 6.72 +0.26 (4.02%) Not that I don't want it to be true, my average is $6.30 and it is a reasonable position of my portfolio. ;) -
Thanks Jacob! Gurufocus has an interview coming up with him soon and people can ask questions here: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/148337/ask-your-investment-questions-to-tom-russo A lot less questions so far than Prem got last month so shoot away, big chance you're question gets an answer. :)
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There's Always Something To Do: The Peter Cundill Investment Approach
Valuebo replied to Parsad's topic in General Discussion
I agree with Dcollon, great book! If I'm not mistaken he had a lot of contacts with companies in which he invested. Very different from an average value investor's approach. -
What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
Relevant: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/128897/gurufocus-interview-with-renowned-investor-joel-greenblatt -
I was wondering about this subject after reading this post of stahleyp: This is really basic entrepreneurship and I remember doing the same when I was 13-14 years old. I used to flip rare playstation games and figures and even had my own "store". ;D I have no doubt this is where I originally got my interest for investing from. I have always been attracted by the creativity, personal accountability and problem solving entrepreneurship demands. There is a lot of correlation between investing and entrepreneurship and I have no doubt many other members where just as creative as a kid or are actual entrepreneurs today. Am I right? If you truly have a passion for either investing or entrepreneurship, I bet you can be successful in both if you put you're mind to it. Any book recommendations about entrepreneurship to feed the hunger for knowledge about the subject would be greatly appreciated. Please no list with titles you found somewhere and haven't actually read. Time is scarce and I like to focus my time on things that are worth it. :) This weekend I'm reading '1000 dollars and an idea' by Sam Wyly, great book so far. Like the way it is written and how it shows his process of becoming an entrepreneur. I would also be very intrested to hear some overall thoughts from actual entrepreneurs (and others!) and how they experienced the relationship with investing and how it helped etc. Maybe an interesting discussion can come out of it! Tom
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What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
+++ :D If I can achieve 'only' a 10% return for the next 30 years, I will have $7+ (adjusted for 3% inflation) for every dollar I invested today. I can live with that but hope to do much better over time. I doubt however that over time I would achieve such results if I try to time the market waiting for the big pitch. I'd rather be all-in now with my low 5-numbers account then wait for valuations that might not happen for many years. The future is unknown and I can only buy what I believe will at least reward me with 15% returns over time. I can still spend money without overworrying about it, I just keep it in check knowing I will be rewarded later. I don't need piles of money to "enjoy my youth". One of the ways I enjoy my youth is by the process of (hopefully) becoming a good investor (and entrepreneur?). I can drive expensive cars and travel around the world when I am 50 if that is what I want to do then. If I die soon, it will be for others to enjoy. The mental reward of saving money and seeing it compound YoY is far greater to me than spending it on material junk that doesn't add to my happiness once a certain level of needs has been saturated. -
Yes, I brought it up in the "what a frikking lovely day...to be reducing risk!!"-thread to indicate how the typical expert focuses on the wrong things (future concerns and hot industries) to allocate capital. I simply dismissed it as a concern because it shouldn't, at any time, determine your market positioning. It is of irrelevance wether it comes to fruition or not, especially for value investors. I have no idea of the possible impact, although I doubt it will have much effect on future valuations. New buyers will arise. If anything, this "bad thing" could bear opportunity.
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What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
Follow-up to indicate we possibly are already in this situation here in Europe. Now from some 'experts'. -> "Hold at least 50% in cash." -> "A lot of cash, but we are ready to invest in stocks in the next 6 months. We haven't see the lows yet. This will probably happen in 2012." -> "We are very prudent today. Cash, yes." Timing is hot again. History shows the bottom could be very near or already happened. I agree with you bmichaud that, as a professional with the possibilities at hand with preservation of capital as main focus, diversification in workouts and controls is a probably a very efficient way to steer away from some of the system risk we are facing today. No one will argue against this. But individual, value-oriented long-term investors not using any leverage can find extreme bargains in today's market. All they have to do is be patient, ultimately they will come out on top. -
What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
I just watched some video's from investors over here at an investing conference and I am blown away once more by the irrelevance and short-sightedness of what they are all saying. No wonder they don't outperform the market. Most of them have very high levels of cash atm but are confident today (I bet they weren't 3 weeks ago) they will invest once the market drops another 5-10% under the current lows! I am talking about Europe here, where markets dropped 30%. One actually said he missed the 2009 bottom but that he is determined now to buy in big once we drop significantly AND things get more clear. How is he going to do that? Others are bullshitting about what great opportunities population ageing will bring and how attractive growth markets are today. The US and Europe are done for it seems. One market strategist (who was very liquid in oktober 2010 and is again now) is totally losing himself in macro items as usual. For example, he claims the S&P500 will have a P/E-ratio of 7 in 2020 because population ageing will cause tremendous selling pressure. Even if this was true, who would actually care about this shit? The examples above are from people 40-50 years old and above. What the f* have they been doing the last couple of 20+ years while they were "investing"? Exactly this kind of bs; timing, measuring useless stuff, focusing on what is or will be hot, worrying about macro events and letting behavorial biases screw them over at every possiblity. Mr. Market NEVER changes and this kind of idiotic group thinking and focusing on the wrong things is what will give others opportunities forever. -
What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
I get tired of repeating myself, but here goes. Buffett's insurance business is not going to stop if his total investment portfolio (bonds and equity) drops 25-30%, whereas Prem's insurance business could stop if his total portfolio (bonds and equity) drop 25-30%. And that doesn't matter what the macro-environment looks like. If either of their portfolio drops considerably, one is far more likely to stop writing insurance than the other. Buffett doesn't have to worry as much about macro. I'm amazed you still take the time to explain. ;) --- You're correct imo Moore. People who claim we haven't see fear are looking at the wrong things. They are waiting for KO to drop to $30 before anything even happened. In the meantime Société Générale dropped 70+% from year high to low, to name one.The fifty largest European companies lost 35+% from year high to low, a few percentage points above the 2009 low. -
What a lovely frickin day....to be reducing risk!!
Valuebo replied to bmichaud's topic in General Discussion
Horizon Kinetics mentions the VIX in their latest letter. (The part about owner-operators is a great read as well!) http://www.hamincny.com/docs/2011Q3_commentary.pdf Also, I loved the article someone (I believe it was you moore?) posted about the vix/vxo: http://news.goldseek.com/Zealllc/1314374831.php Not something I would base my market exposure on but it is a nice side-indicator and historically it has a great track record of marking "normal" fear situations. People who claimed there was no fear in August/September, not even in Europe, were dead wrong imo. 2008 was extremely rare and comparing today with the situation back then is bs. There was fear, just not as crazy. -
So? He says BRK might have been the last to fall in case the dominoes toppled, not that it might would have fallen.
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please provide a source for Buffett's comment that brk would have failed. it has to be on the Internet no? Buffett built brk to survive anything including the failure of some investment banks. I remember him saying something in the lines of "If the goverment didn't step in and saved the system from colapsing, ultimately even Berkshire would have failed".
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AND laying out the BRK-case for the fiftieth time... :D
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http://www.funnyforumpics.com/forums/Thread-Hijack/1/Hijack-DeNiro.jpg
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Down 7% in opening. Not sure why. This? http://www.zacks.com/research/get_news.php?id=293l8455 Still looking to pick some up. Just don't have any cash left and won't be selling anything else at current prices.
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double post :x
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Nice find onyx1. There is a reason why it's one of Buffett's 4 filters. For the same reason Prem is investing in companies like DELL, RIMM and SD. Being confident in management's abilities is extremely important, especially when investing in the unknown and unknowable.
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The Great Super Investors Hold 10 Baggers
Valuebo replied to Ben Graham's topic in General Discussion
I'm still missing the meaning of this topic or the point that is being made. Everything that has been said here seems... obvious? :-X I'll follow Moore on this one. There really isn't anything else to say about it. -
I have tremendous respect for people like StahleyP with his amount of dedication to achieve a certain goal. Everyone has to decide what balance is best for him. Personally I have some of those habits as well. For instance, when in a mall I will automatically compare every product I'm buying and I'll convert the price against quantity (and to a much lesser extent quality). When I see a pizza for $4.5 and one for $1.5, I'll always take the cheapest as I doubt I'll enjoy the more expensive one 3 times as much as the cheap one. It doesn't make perfect sense but it's just something I do when looking at products. I drive a $2000 car because I doubt I need the comfort of a $10000 car just now. Especially since it doesn't take me to my destination 5 times faster, is 5 times saver or consumes 5 times less fuel. :P I plan on living with my parents for at least a couple of years after I graduate next year. I'll pay a fixed sum for living expenses and the rest I'll be able to save. It makes a big difference and I couldn't care less about the first years of total independence lost. When you think about what compound interest will do with your current savings it really isn't all that hard to stop spending on useless stuff.
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As BAC stock continues to fall, interesting perspective
Valuebo replied to Munger's topic in General Discussion
I completely agree Parsad. My average is $6.30 and I am very confident about the future for BAC. -5% pre-market. We just might get more chances to buy. ;) -
As BAC stock continues to fall, interesting perspective
Valuebo replied to Munger's topic in General Discussion
http://investor.bankofamerica.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=71595&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1618158&highlight= Not dead yet. Earnings boosted by adjustments of course.
