Valuebo
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6 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Bbbbut everyone is high on hopium!
Oh Yeah, for sure!
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1 hour ago, Paarslaars said:
Lets assume:
3500 - ... = 3500 - 3999
4000 - ... = 4000 - 4249
4250 - ... = 4250 - 4499
Yeah but that would mean 95% think we exit the year below 4250. Which is bearishness you'd expect when things are way worse.
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I can't read this as basically 95% of surveyed peeps thinking we end the year lower or around this level at best, right? Cause choosing '3500 - ...' means you are still technically right with YE at 4400 for example. Rather enticing too to choose it over any other option with far lower odds.
Kind of a weird way to set up a poll. Makes it look more bearish than it might be.
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On 4/3/2023 at 4:46 PM, Spekulatius said:
NVDA really looks like a bubble, but looking at puts, I need to pay ~$10 for a $200 strike for 10/2023. That's a ~$190 breakeven or down 32% from the current $280 share price.
Looks more like a candidate for straight up shorting but I don't short.
You are probably right.
In any event I did the same as with my TSLA short a few days after on a drop; sold position for average 15-20% gain and concluded my call options are already hard enough to time, let alone puts. No need for added stress in the ptf.
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Thinking of going to Switzerland by car for hiking, cycling and running somewhere in May, tips always welcome! Honestly so many amazing spots there that I can't see the forest for the trees anymore.
Went to Prague, London, Champagne area (Reims), Guatemala, Belize (and Washington DC) so far this year, so can't complain. Been terrible weather here so glad to escape it somewhat at least.
Thinking of doing the classical 3 week+ trip of West coast USA in June and maybe Japan later this year.
You're only (relatively) young once I guess!
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+++ dealraker and Gregmal.
The endless and excessive worrying about the macro environment, exact CPI numbers, banking stability, next rate hike, ... must be so exhausting. Can't imagine it EVER being an edge over longer time periods.
Put some family members in mainly European stuff back in October/November and it's been booming to say the least. Haven't cared about those macro things then and I won't now. While people obsess over a possible (earnings) recession and what exactly is and isn't sticky inflation, many companies like LVMH and Delta are still able to surprise with stellar numbers. Maybe we aren't all doomed yet?
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Nvda OTM puts 6 months out.
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Good discussion here guys, thank you!
On a behavioral point, I'd just like to add it feels good to my contrarian brain that banks are generally looked at as black boxes that are basically uninvestable, regardless of of moat-like power for the big guys or the near-decade low valuations in absolute terms. Very confident in stating the relative valuation compared to the broad market hasn't been this low since '09. As if most companies have ever been anything else than black boxes for 99% of "investors". At some point the attraction wins from the smell and you take a basket approach where you rationalize that as a whole, the system of US banks is unlikely to blow up or permanentely destroy your capital. I feel we have approached that point in time, but maybe that is also because I don't see all that much amazing value elsewhere.
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A cost of a few bps with the added benefit that they all feel they don't have to raise rates for customers to compete for these deposits with each other? I'll gladly take it.
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Have a look at Market cap instead of share price when looking at historical prices @Viking. For bac thats around 300b then VS 215b now.
But yes, around same stock price but you got a bigger piece of the pie per share.
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More BAC options as we got near the 52-week lows last night with special thanks to Yellen. Tonight nicely followed up by Ackman who again seems to think he is actually helping. What absolute buffoons. Are there any adults left?
Taking the volatility here for what it is: nothing relevant.
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Afraid I agree with Spek here and that view has definitely changed over last few days. I expected market to remain more rational, silly me!
All said and done this weekend was sad to witness. Market working against it's own best interests despite - hopefully at least - rationally knowing things are far better and more robust than GFC. Just feels like we will need a serious washout here with firesale prices. Market gonna snif things out until it hits a clear wall because the fear is too absurd versus fundamentals. Too many potential dominos now considering uncertainty of deposit flows in and lackluster appetite for regional banks. FED is fucked as they can't signal more angst and should likely rise 25 bps and leave no guidance.
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1 minute ago, LearningMachine said:
I was not saying that the Monday filing would show that he purchased banks in the open market.
To the contrary, I was saying that the Monday filing would likely show what his Wednesday filing showed :-).
See https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/315090/000089924323008649/xslF345X03/doc4.xml .My bad, gotcha!
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16 minutes ago, LearningMachine said:
Because of that, I think BRK's Monday filing is likely to show something similar to his last Wednesday filing on what he purchased among all the noise :-).
Why would he buy open market, esp with the size he operates at, when he can get better deals over the weekend? And I'm talking against my book here as I bought USB calls on Friday at -8% which might see a small rebound if there was to be some sudden news from WEB.
I still don't think he wants to mingle too much with regional banks anyway, unless it gets very attractive. He also knows not to go at it too soon and that letting it "fester" some more gets him fatter pitches. Must be nice to know you can effectively make a great investment and simultaneously prop up confidence in the entire banking system in one go. Still see him going purely for the bigger whales out there, which will be the biggest (and only) beneficiaries when all is said and done. Just open market obv, none of the big players have any issues whatsoever, no matter the claims of some f**** idiots on fintwit... The idiocy and scaremongering is mindblowing I have to say.
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30 minutes ago, yesman182 said:
But I think the entire issue of deposits fleeing regional banks is overblown. I for one don't know anyone moving deposits.
This so much. This has been an echochamber in a big way these last two weeks of people calling for 2008 revisited. The system is sound and confidence has been shaken a little because of some tech idiots. Panic all around while the average guy in the street barely noticed anything is going on.
Shoot first, ask questions later.
I also see Buffett buying more BAC before big regional banking investments as I believe he will make the most logical conclusion that in the end the biggest banks will get out of this stronger again.
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Bought way too many bac calls at 28 and a bit.
Market doing it's well known 'sell first, think later' again.
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Lol the panic is real, both here and elsewhere. Funny.
I'll get my wish and get to buy more. Shitty banks doing more than FED could in a year for overheating economy. Meanwhile rates dropping hard so now banks like bac that are beyond well capitalized, diversified and got sticky deposito's, and that fell 20% in a few weeks on HTM losses are gonna... fall further? Okay. Maybe get it straight to $20 and let me put a third of my net worth in leaps.
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I loaded up on shorter dated calls all Friday, when fear was clearly palpable already, so I can live with that.
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54 minutes ago, Parsad said:
The difference for the big four banks and larger institutions is that they've offset potential outlier events using derivatives. Does anyone know how much of BAC's unrealized loss is offset by derivatives? Cheers!
Bingo. All these people going on about HTM losses as if these guys go at it willy-nilly, okay...
And I'm willing to bet this whole thing will have near zero impact on the biggest banks when all is said and done in a few weeks time. They have never been better regulated and capitalized, not to mention underowned and cheap cash cows with sticky deposits.
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Markets been a bit jittery and participants are fighting the last crisis. Bank run on SVB maybe but should be easily contained. This isn't the last crisis.
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Bought more TSLA puts at open.
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54 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Hit a solid slug of MSGE Dec $40 calls last week or so.
I'd buy more as well if I didn't feel like they are going to hit us with yet another cost hike on The Sphere making this stock probably tumble to $40 again. I hold some.
US Regional bank stocks - PNC Financial, TFS - Truist, USB- USB Bank, MTB - M&T Bank etc
in General Discussion
Posted
Correct. I'd say it's completely unlikely. But everyone fighting the last war. Banks aren't even the same animal anymore.
Sure, I guess if inflation went far crazier or years and they hiked rates way higher, they would maybe get in trouble. But way more things would break far sooner. I've also not been in that extreme inflation camp, quite the opposite.