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king888

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    "Emerging Markets" - Hong Kong & Singapore

    in General Discussion

    Posted

     

    Also, are there sites to pull the 10 year financials like Morningstar or Valueline (free or paid)?

     

    Thanks!

    If you meant to data of Thai companies, you can use setsmart.com.  There are some fee but very cheap. And if you open a trading account with Maybank kimeng online, you can access it for free.

     

    King888, just curious -do you mind describing your friend's approach that's up 35x since 08? Concentrated bet on some small cap?

     

    My friend approach is very simple. High concentration and leverage.  In the investment community, someone even claim a higher return than this. But they are not my friend so I am not sure if the performance is really legit.  But in Thailand, if you bought the stock more than 5% of the company you have to report . And if you hold more than 0.5% of total share, when the book closed ,your name will be shown in major shareholder list.  So it is traceable in some way but someone use a lot of leverage to buy stock so we don't know the total net worth exactly.

     

    There is another famous retail investor in Thailand who wrote a book for more than 10 years. He has a compound return of 40% per year for 15 years .And his track record seem to be legit. because I saw his name appeared in many major shareholder list in Thailand. Last time, I checked he has a portfolio of around $70-80 million.  Last year, there is an English book published about him. The book is "The world's 99 greatest investor"  http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/the-worlds-99-greatest-investors/

     

    I don't won the book ,just found this pic from another forum

    http://f.ptcdn.info/847/012/000/1385979725-IMG0422JPG-o.jpg

     

    His approach is value plus growth .  And most of his success is from Retail sector. The retail stock such as CPALL ( 7-11 operator in Thailand)  has made 10x return in last 6 years. His holding period is very long as he said he has no intention to sell as long as the business is still good.  He use almost zero leverage and purely his own money to invest.

     

     

    "Emerging Markets" - Hong Kong & Singapore

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am from Thailand and currently live here. I have been investing in stock market for about 12 years already both in Thailand and overseas.

     

    I know many retail investors who have done extremely well in Thailand's stock market . One of my friend made like 35x return since 2008 ( $4-5 million portfolio now).  The market was very inefficient that time.    But right now , Thai market is very expensive even after the coup happened. It looks like every domestic investors both retails and funds keep putting money into market.  And domestic money is 60-65% of total trading volume now. Japan market has only 30-35% trading volume from local. 

     

    About Singapore market, last year I bought Mermaid Maritime and sold for a nice double after 4 months.  This year i had a position in Hong Leong Asia but not anymore because the turnaround might take loner than I expected and I want to put money to another idea.

     

    Malaysia has some interesting stock as well . Zhulian , one of leading MLM in this region looks cheap due to revenue decline in Q1 . But I heard that it is due to price lifting of the product that causes the revenue to decline ( Members bought more in advance before this Q after they knew that the price would rise).

    Facebook buys whatsapp for $16B

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    LINE is ten time better than WhatsApp ,IMO.

     

    I'm based in Thailand .Almost everyone used WhatsApp until 2 years ago when Line came.  Free to use and group chat with maximum of 100 people . It is not just a messaging ,it is more like social network app. Line Flash Deal , Line Games , Line Camera.  It has 350 million users and making $100 million/ quarter.

     

    So do you think FB will turn WhatsApp into a Line-like app?

    Mark said he won't change WhatsApp.  But if he want WhatsApp to compete with WeChat or Line ,he has to change it big time.Better to buy Naver Corp ,owner of Line, in Korean market which is valued at $16-17 Billion

     

     

    Facebook buys whatsapp for $16B

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    LINE is ten time better than WhatsApp ,IMO.

     

    I'm based in Thailand .Almost everyone used WhatsApp until 2 years ago when Line came.  Free to use and group chat with maximum of 100 people . It is not just a messaging ,it is more like social network app. Line Flash Deal , Line Games , Line Camera.  It has 350 million users and making $100 million/ quarter. 

    Micro caps

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just my 2 cent.

    The undervalued areas are not just micro-cap. It can be whole stock market in some countries . For example, Japan stocks  a few year back and maybe S.Korea for now. 

    The problem with micro cap is you are not able to build a meaningful position but it depends on portfolio size as well.

    With 1-5% position in each micro cap ,I guess that won't make much differences comparing to market return. 

    The key to outperform market and build wealth is concentration in the overlooked sectors/stocks.  Warren Buffett does that in his early day.  But that might be another topic.

     

    I am interesting to hear Nate's return also. He is the real pro is this space.   

    The $4 Million Teacher

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The high-income private tutors are cery normal across Asia countries.

     

    Minhong Yu from China, founder of EDU , even made more money than this back when he started.

     

    In Thailand, I think the highest-income tutor who teachs chemistry made more than $10 million a year and it is just the sole tutor with video recording that students pay for.

     

    The Asia students want  to get into top universities so they study overtime and enroll in tutor school.

    Does anyone study George Soros?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I read a couple of book about George Soros. His theory is very well suit to explain behavior of the market .  The fair value or economics equilibrium cannot be reached due to market participants. This can example every market that human participate in.  Stock market tends to overshoot or undershoot fair value almost every time.  Bull market drives valuation to skyhigh level because everyone feared of being dump not to make money. And Bear market is just the opposite.    But every market correct itself and turns the corner by a behavior such as IPOs  or too much capacity expansion. 

     

    I feel that the way Soros views the world is more or less similar to Charlie Munger when I read Poor Charlie's Almanack.  Both are super smart guys that pursuit different way of life but they share some similar trait and similar "mental models"

     

     

    Life vs PC Insurer

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    i thunk Prem didn't want ICICI to operate a Life insurance unit due to capital constraint.

    If bank has life insurance unit , the liability of the policy forces the bank to increase tier1 capital. This rule also apply to Bank industry in Thailand so most of thai banks do not have majority stake in life issurer unless it has very strong capital base.

     

    Life issurer in Asia is very profitable. For example ,AIA which dominate 50-60% of market share in Thailand , Hong Kong.  And most of life issurers are trading at 3-6x of book value.  The industry is in better shape here than in developed countries.

     

    Edit: AIA market share in Thailand is around 30-35% .  50% was in 6-7 years ago. But the decrease is just market share but new premium written has been increasing for years.

    Employing analysts remotely. Crazy idea?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Muddy Water , Alfred Little , Geoinvesting and many more employ analysts , investigators overseas especially in China.  I occasionally hire someone in China to do a due diligence to avoid the fraud companies also. But in lesser degrees and a lot lower cost than these short-sellers.

     

    Local people has a better understanding about local companies than most of the professional investors overseas who just read the annual report without on-the-ground due diligence. But it also depends case by case anyway.

     

     

    Anyone looking at Japanese companies?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    - Daihatsu Diesel

    - Water Oasis

     

    Any comments? I got the AR of WO ready for the weekend, looks incredibly cheap

    Did you mean Water Oasis(1161.hk) ?

    It is from Hong Kong . Not a Japanese one.

     

    I have been followed this company since 2010. It looks cheaper after the profit warning.

    But the bad point for HK public co is they do not file quarterly report . And the interim report or even annual report does not specific some of financial details clearly.

    Part of the profit of Water Oasis in the recent years are from non-operating items.But the good thing is it pays very good dividend. There is some disclosure issue regarding opearting business such as the closure of smaller brand in their portfolio. They launched JM Makeup brand in 2010 but suddenly stopped reporting it in 2012.I assume it was shutdown but no verbal explanatiom in PR or AR at all.

     

    PS. I might add position if it fell to around 0.3-0.4

     

     

    "Macro" Musings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Short Side Of Long Issue 2 April 2013

     

    giofranchi

     

    Well, thanks for posting this report. However , is it supposed to be distributed freely in the forum?

    Sanjeev has asked numberous times to not put any copyright materials here.And I just saw this at the end of report.

     

     

    It is a breach of international copyright laws to reproduce all or part of this report by email, fax or any other means. The Short Side of Long’s report is provided on fortnightly basis to paid subscription members only. If you are not a paid subscriber and receive emailed, faxed or copied versions of the reports from a source other than Short Side of Long, you are violating the Copyright Act.

     

    THE SHORT SIDE OF LONG

    theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com

    Copyright © 2013 All rights reserved.

    Is anyone else getting these questions...?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In my country ( Thailand) ,financial market becomes very popular topic in many media outlets. Stock market is at 16 years high . Top best selling books are investment/trading-related books. We have 400% run for the market index since 2009's low. I think it is one of the best performing market in the world.  Overall market is trading at 18-19x PER (2012) . But most of the profit comes from tax-cut. Most of  local brokerage houses said market is still cheap because forwarded PER is around 13x.

     

    Some companies trading at sky-high valuation . For example , one low-cost airlines trading at 35x PE(2012), its profit is at record high but analysts said profit will go even higher due to fleet expansion plan so 35xPE is "cheap". IPOs jumps 300% in the first-day ,it can't go higher than that because we have a ceiling price. 7-Eleven franchisee company is tarding at 50xPE and made a 10x run in the last 4 years. Since January , I think more than 30 companies that made more than 100% gain . Total number of listed company is around 600.

     

     

    Kyle Bass Interview

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    How can we short japanese bonds like he says? He thinks japan is a disaster waiting to happen in 2-3 years. Is shorting bonds or other derivatives possible? What's an easy solution via a us discount broker who does options/derivatives?

     

    This is an interview from Tres Knippa ,who runs smaller-size fund to bet upon the collapse of JGBs and YEN .  From what I understood he buys short-dated put option for JGB. And if the yield of JGBs picking up ,he will shift to short futures instead. 

    http://www.informedtrades.com/755338-tres-knippa-yen-overvalued-implied-volatility-suggests-japanese-government-bonds-cheap.html

     

     

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