leftcoast
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Posts posted by leftcoast
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Canada's banking regulator, OSFI, proposed a new set of mortgage underwriting guidelines for Canadian banks yesterday. If these go into effect, they will tighten lending for many Canadian borrowers. For example, the new guidelines would disallow the use of "cash back" mortgages to get around minimum down payment rules. They would force lenders to use the 5-year posted rate to qualify borrowers for any uninsured mortgage, regardless of type or term. And they really clamp down on the use of HELOCs, by reducing the maximum LTV ratio for HELOCs and disallowing interest-only payments.
Seems like the federal gov't is serious about reducing the flow of cheap debt in the housing market, even if the Bank of Canada has its hands tied with interest rates. It will be interesting to see what kind of debate this sparks, since it could be a catalyst that finally pops the bubble in Vancouver. The gov't is also walking a fine line... they want to curb excessive borrowing, but they also don't want their policies blamed for an inevitable housing correction/collapse that will hurt a lot of voters.
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Did I read this right? Is she seriously suggesting that Berkshire's board should remove Buffett early and that shareholders might welcome this move?
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Technology is inherently neutral, but can be used for both good and bad.
Exactly. "Technology" just means better tools. Better tools empower groups and individuals to solve bigger problems. Better tools also empower groups and individuals to cause bigger problems, either intentionally or accidentally.
Buffett has said many times that his greatest fear is the threat of nuclear proliferation. That is a very rational fear to have. Sooner or later, a nuclear weapon is probably going to get used again by somebody. A nuclear weapon in isolation has the potential to kill a few million people, but newer technologies will have bigger consequences. The same tech that will empower us to eradicate horrible diseases will also enable to us to create even more horrible diseases, one of which could eradicate us.
As technology progresses and our tools get more powerful, the stakes for our species (and those co-habitating with us) just get higher and higher. And I honestly don't think anyone can say what the endgame looks like. Technology could "save the world" but it could also eventually end the world as we know it.
Better to be an optimist, though. Life is happier that way. :)
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That perverse psychology is what makes running a fund very, very difficult unless you have longer term lockups.
Fairholme's tag line is "Ignore the Crowd," but I guess the question is how do you do that when your own investors are "the crowd"?
Just curious (as a non-investment professional)... what's the attraction of running a mutual fund vs. a hedge fund? Doesn't seem like the administrative costs would be any lower, and for a manager like Berkowitz, the inability to manage inflows and outflows seems like it just adds all kinds of hurdles to performance. So what's the upside? Is it just that it's easier to acquire new AUM when you want to grow? Easy come, easy go.
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One consideration before you disconnect your landline entirely is that with all of those other options, you are reliant on the electrical grid for communications. In the case of an extended power outage, a handset (not cordless) connected to the phone company's copper landline is the only thing that will keep working after your cell phone battery has died. If you live in an area that is prone to power outages, earthquakes, storms, etc. it's something to consider.
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Kinect related applications have huge potential in my opinion and so far we have only seen the tip of the iceberg with it.
BeerBaron
Hmm. A Kinect app for day traders would be cool. Fist-pump the air to signal a buy order. Bury your face in your hands to signal a sell. Yell "Xbox Oh God I'm Ruined!" to liquidate your account. Burn calories while you trade. Won't make you wealthier, but it will make you healthier.
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Some great viral marketing out of CES this week. Microsoft offered $100 cash to anyone whose smartphone could beat a Windows Phone in any one of a variety of everyday tasks.
Article here:
Amusing video here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQZww_C6Zgg
http://techielobang.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/smoke_windows_phone.jpg
They should definitely make this into an advertising campaign.
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G&M article on Vito Maida of Patient Capital and his view on current market valuations.
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Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to everyone on this fantastic board.
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Leftcoast--I left out the TV/music part. In our household, we have a windows media center PC with a Ceton Corp 4-tuner card to handle our TV, along with 50,000+ songs. There are 3 Xbox's throughout the house as extenders for that. The new voice control via Kinect is awesome. I heard my wife in the basement this morning barking out orders to the Xbox before getting on the treadmill "XBOX--VIDEO--MY VIDEO APPS--MEDIA CENTER" I think Microsoft's development on the Xbox will provide consumers with many more benefits over time vs. the Wii. It is destined to become the home entertainment hub as well as a gaming machine.
Yeah, and the new Xbox Live dashboard that was rolled out 2 weeks ago also added voice search via Bing, which is really handy for finding content. Just say "XBOX - BING - BREAKING BAD" and it will instantly find everything related to the show, including soundtracks. No more hunting around for stuff.
Yes, the Xbox is becoming much more than just a game console.
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Leftcoast,
I just bought XBOX 360 with Kinect for the kids for Xmas.
I plan to set up Live through our WIFI at home and stream entertainment. But being somewhat cheap and ignorant, I bought the 4GB version. Will I still be able to stream content on Live with so little memory? Will a USB memory stick work? If not, what do I do?
ROMC - Yes, you will be able to stream content on your new X360. The 4GB vs. 250GB versions refer to the size of the hard drive storage, not the system memory. And the good news is that you don't need the hard drive for services like Netflix, Zune video, Zune music, Last.FM, Facebook, Twitter, ESPN, or Hulu. All of this content streams off the internet and is not stored locally on the console. (Just like Youtube.)
The hard drive is used for downloading content that is stored on the machine. Here are the main purposes I can think of:
- Purchasing and downloading full retail games via Xbox Live instead of buying a disc in a store. For this, you will definitely need a bigger HDD because most games require well above 4GB of storage space.
- Downloading additional game content like extra multiplayer maps, new music, new levels, etc.
- Downloading game demos.
- Downloading Xbox Live Arcade games. These are smaller games that are only distributed digitally.
So basically the only thing you really need a big hard drive for is if you expect to download extra content for your games. If you do a lot of this, then you should consider getting more storage space. Yes, you can use a USB Flash drive (or an external USB hard drive if you have one) for extra storage, but only 16GB of it will be recognized by the X360, so it doesn't get you a lot of extra space.
Another, more MSFT shareholder-friendly option is to purchase the hard drive upgrade that Microsoft sells for around $120 or so. It's an accessory that you can buy anytime, so it probably makes sense to just wait to see if you really need it.
Merry Christmas! I'm sure your kids are going to be very happy on Sunday morning.
- Purchasing and downloading full retail games via Xbox Live instead of buying a disc in a store. For this, you will definitely need a bigger HDD because most games require well above 4GB of storage space.
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So to all of you who play video games or have kids who play them, I need some advice. My son's 8th b-day is coming up in mid january.
What's better: X-box, or Nintendo.
Can you download free games to play on either of these?
My son is trashing our PCs playing video games that he downloads and it is time for something a little more robust. I have an old colour TV and an extra monitor kicking around that he can use. I just need the console.
So far he likes conventional games along the lines of Mario Bros. and NHL hockey.
I am totally ignorant of the offerings today having grown up with Space Invaders, Asteroids, Pengo, and Pac Man, and graduated 10 years after to Masters of Orion, and Civilization.
First, full disclosure: I work in Microsoft's Interactive Entertainment Business, making games for the Xbox 360 and related platforms. So I'm knowledgeable, but also biased. :)
I agree with most of the points made above... Historically, Nintendo has offered more "casual" games and games for younger kids, whereas the X360 has catered more to the "core" gaming market. That said, both consoles have always offered content for both audiences.
However, I would say that Kinect has really been a game-changer for the X360 in terms of broadening the audience to include kids and entire families. If you look at the launch portfolio of games for the Kinect, there is not a single "core" game in there. They are all casual, accessible games with very broad appeal, and many are specifically for younger kids. For example, my kids and I spent a good chunk of last Sunday afternoon playing Kinect Disneyland Adventures and
.Kinect has been very successful at changing the perception that moms have about the Xbox brand, and there's lots more to come on that front. Check this out:
The other thing I would point out is that the Xbox Live service offers a lot of additional online functionality beyond games, which might make it appealing for you. For example, I actually use our Xbox to stream movies and TV more than I do for playing games. And if you're into sports, the UFC and ESPN services on Xbox Live are worth a look.
And as others have mentioned, the Xbox Live Arcade (XBLA) service also allows you to download smaller games for $5-$20.
In my (very biased) opinion, it's a no-brainer to go for the X360 + Kinect over the Wii, unless your son has a strong loyalty or attachment to Nintendo's exclusive IP (e.g. Mario, Zelda, Pokemon).
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I saw this article in the New York Times today and thought it was funny.
That’s why Craig Gorman, a partner at First New York Securities, routinely monitors his trading positions in the middle of the night. He turns on CNBC and fires up the Bloomberg terminal with six screens at the foot of his bed. “With the TV and all my monitors on, it gets a little bright in there,” he said. “My wife is not thrilled about it.”
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Cara threatens legal action if Prime agrees to Fairfax bid:
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One prerequisite for writing clearly is knowing the subject very well.
Agreed. You can tell someone has really mastered a subject when they are able to teach it clearly.
I think it also helps to have a very broad base of general knowledge and experience on which to draw (i.e. Charlie's mental models), so that you can make useful connections between different subjects. One of Warren's favourite techniques for communicating his ideas is to use analogies and parables that people can relate to. These often come across as "folksy" or "home-spun," but they are incredibly effective tools for simplifying and communicating complex ideas. This is partly because they use concrete examples (vs. abstract theory), partly because they allow people to relate the subject to something they are familiar and comfortable with, and partly because the human brain just seems to be wired to remember stories.
Another piece is to know your audience well, and to tailor the message for that audience. I think Warren used to imagine that he was writing his shareholder letters to his sister, who has basically no business or finance training.
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Does any one here think it will fly because if it does I want to sell my Vancouver home quick cuz it sure will kill our market which has been kept afloat because of immigration.
I thought the same thing. It would certainly level the playing field between Vancouver and Seattle.
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Also depends on what exactly you are measuring. Should one include their household's maintenance capex, or just pure opex? For example, should depreciation on your car count as household expense? What about the principal portion of your mortgage payments? Home improvements or renovations?
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It will also be interesting to see what effect this might have on the Vancouver housing bubble, since BC's economy is very heavy on rocks and trees, and also because mainland Chinese buyers have been the most recent justification used by the real estate industry to rationalize Vancouver's inflated prices. (Taking over for the Olympics.)
Vitaliy Katsenelson, the author of "Active Value Investing," has been been ringing the alarm bell about hidden trouble with China's economy for a couple of years now. You can read his detailed thesis on his website:
China – The Mother of All Grey Swans
http://contrarianedge.com/2010/10/30/china-the-mother-of-all-grey-swans/
The Chinese Black Swan
http://contrarianedge.com/2011/07/05/the-chinese-black-swan/
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But does the US know about her Australian citizenship? Did she notify the US? I have it in the back of my mind that with the US it has to be either/or, not dual. Is that correct?
Way back when, it was not allowed for US Citizens to have divided citizenship. There was even a story required for schoolchildren to read, "The Man Without a Country." Some people thought Lindberg should have his US citizenship revolked when he accepted an award from Hitler as that was not allowed for US Citizens. What if the US went to war with Australia? Stranger things have happened. Would your mother then be an enemy alien? Or if she owned a firearn, perhaps an enemy combatant? Would she then be carried off to a concentration camp as possibly having divided loyalty?
These are absurd suggestions, of course, but they do highlight the complexities of dual citizenship. I for one think that particularities of exclusive citizenship should be liberalized. But what is the current US position on this?
http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1753.html
U.S. law does not mention dual nationality or require a person to choose one citizenship or another. Also, a person who is automatically granted another citizenship does not risk losing U.S. citizenship. However, a person who acquires a foreign citizenship by applying for it may lose U.S. citizenship. In order to lose U.S. citizenship, the law requires that the person must apply for the foreign citizenship voluntarily, by free choice, and with the intention to give up U.S. citizenship.
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Questrade, RBC, and BMO are the 3 major discount brokers that currently offer this.
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Given the board's level of interest in MSFT and the future of computing, I'm surprised that the unveiling of Windows 8 last week didn't start any discussion here.
Galen Gruman -- Watch out, Apple: Windows 8 could trump the iPad
http://www.infoworld.com/d/mobile-technology/watch-out-apple-windows-8-could-trump-the-ipad-172971
Cnet -- Windows 8: Microsoft's Swiss Army knife vision
http://news.cnet.com/8301-10805_3-20106971-75/windows-8-microsofts-swiss-army-knife-vision
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I just finished reading the Oct 29th 2010 issue (free link).
Using the closing stock price of BAC on the day the issue was published ($11.45), and the stated valuation of BAC in the publication 6.7x normalized. I guess the author came to the conclusion that BAC will earn $1.70 per share in a normalized year.
Is there any chance the author can explain how only $1.70 is calculated to be the earnings power of BAC in a normalized year? Berkowitz was this past week saying $3 is the earnings power.
At the top of page 84, it appears that the base case for normalized earnings is calculated based on a 15% return on tangible common equity. Tangible common equity as of Sept 2010 is listed as $114 billion. So that gives a normalized net income of $17 billion, or $1.70 per share.
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Sanjeev, whereabouts is your office located? I was eating lunch on a rooftop in Yaletown and nobody felt a thing.
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I mailed my request in for the book some time ago but never got it. Does anyone have the person it should go to and the address??
This is the reply I received from Fairfax in early June when I inquired about the book via e-mail:
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Thank you very much for your interest in Fairfax and our 25th anniversary book.
The book was provided at the shareholders’ meeting as a thanks for the many years of support and was intended to be distributed to shareholders only on that day.
Understanding that not all of our shareholders can attend every meeting in person for many reasons, we have decided to send copies of the book to shareholders who send us a written letter by regular post. The letter should clearly provide your name, mailing address and the year you became a shareholder.
Our mailing address is:
Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited
95 Wellington Street West, Suite 800,
TORONTO, Ontario Canada M5J 2N7
Attention: 25th Anniversary Book.
In lieu of requesting funds to cover postage for delivery of the book, we will be asking that the recipient of each book make a donation to the Hospital for Sick Children in Toronto (http://www.sickkidsfoundation.com/donate/).
We thank you again for your interest and we look forward to seeing you in person at our next annual meeting. In the future, we hope to be able to continue provide interesting information and access to management at each of our shareholders’ meetings to make the trip in person worth your time and effort.
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I received my copy in early August.
MSPaint Gurus... if there is such a thing :)
in General Discussion
Posted
When you save the file in JPEG (JPG) format, it compresses the image, which creates visual "artifacts" like those little pixels you see. Saving it as in BMP or PNG format will prevent the noticeable compression, but will also result in a much larger file size (which you may or may not care about).
The JPG artifacts should not be too noticeable, though, unless you are scaling the image up much larger than its original size (or zooming in on it a lot).