gfp
-
Posts
4,495 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
8
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by gfp
-
-
Oh joy... This guy is coming to rant about Bill Gates and Epstein again.
-
1 hour ago, nwoodman said:
Thanks - these transcripts are getting pretty good. How do they get a name like Gobinath's perfectly transcribed? Must not be AI?
-
55 minutes ago, Viking said:
OK. So after all that… What is an investor to do?
Go short because IFRS is confusing?
-
11 hours ago, Jaygo said:
Bingo. I’m not Austin Mathews so I’m not making the kind of money he is. He can do lots of dumb shit with his money because lots more is coming.
But for normal folks we have to play the game that is being played not the one we want to play. I personally feel that reasonable dept financed asset purchases is the only way to get ahead. Would I rather make 15 mil a year and not worry about this shit? Yes!
I am in the position that if I work and invest what I can ( say 30k a year) I will live a decent life with some good security as I age, I personally feel that if I want to have an excess above this level I need to accelerate the flywheel by the use of dept.
so far so good. I can borrow at 6 and expect 10 through something like brk. Safe if done right.
the 6 is tax deductible yearly and the 10 is cap gains when I decide to unwind the game. I don’t like the game but I understand it is the way it is.
Jaygo I notice you always spell "debt" with a "p" - is that a keyboard thing or a country of origin thing or what? Just curious since it has been consistent.
-
3 minutes ago, Sweet said:
Sorta feel the same, and I read on Twitter it’s drones that fly about 200 mph which will be easily intercepted if true.I am certainly not an expert in any of this but I have heard the idea is to have over 100 different things (drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles) arriving around the same time at vastly different speeds, altitudes and directions - hoping to confuse the various air defense systems. With so much preparation I assume close to all of them will be shot down but odds are a couple will get through.
-
6 minutes ago, sleepydragon said:
Can someone explain to me what does bitcoins has to do with this?
Bitcoin was probably the only market that was open. If you feel like reducing risk and raising cash, you go with the markets that are currently open. Bitcoin is always open.
-
I saw the founder / promoter / whatever you call him sold $4.5m worth at $30/sh. I assume he has sold more since if allowed to. I am unclear if they can issue new shares at a premium to NAV any time soon. I covered my short with all the Levine attention but it’s been an entertaining and profitable distraction. I even held a short overnight one night
-
2 hours ago, charlieruane said:
Fascinating! Mind if I ask where you heard this?
Warren told the story either at an annual meeting or in an interview. Nike was the example but he had Lou liquidate his entire portfolio before he left.
-
18 hours ago, gfp said:
I don't know what they can or can't do but I don't see how they could get that extra capital invested in private companies very quickly. This thing traded $118.75 after hours tonight. (we are talking about DXYZ in case that is not obvious)
Matt Levine wrote about it in his column today, so I'm sure a bunch of people learned what it was that hadn't previously heard about it.
So DXYZ traded above $120/ share multiple times after-hours last night and this morning. Interactive brokers still had shares available to short at that time but the borrow rate was 80-90%. Less than half that price currently. NAV $5. Just a bizarre trading sardine
-
1 minute ago, backtothebeach said:
>500,000,000 shares authorized, 10,879,905 shares issued and outstanding
Hmm, could there be some reflexivity here? Can they place the other 489M shares at market price?
I don't know what they can or can't do but I don't see how they could get that extra capital invested in private companies very quickly. This thing traded $118.75 after hours tonight. (we are talking about DXYZ in case that is not obvious)
Matt Levine wrote about it in his column today, so I'm sure a bunch of people learned what it was that hadn't previously heard about it.
-
There is this crazy school of thought out there that values companies based on their earning power but Carson knows that.
-
I love it! If you know something please email it to me!
-
This Destiny Tech100 closed end fund is wild! Lots of entertainment
-
28 minutes ago, schin said:
When Warren passes, I would expect there will be selling of his prized holdings too.
I feel like the deferred tax liability will factor in heavily here and that he is spending a huge amount of time talking out these companies with Ted and Todd. I would be really surprised to see a position like American Express or Coca-Cola messed with after Warren passes. I could be wrong but my bet is that some of these are truly treated like the rest of the subsidiaries.
-
Oh wow - yeah that's $4.84 per share vs $75 per share at one point on Friday. Yikes!
-
On 4/2/2024 at 10:59 AM, KJP said:
That is possible. But take a look at insider ownership. The structure suggests to me that they want to cash out as many as possible.
EDIT: It's enough of an issue that I wouldn't buy this at, say, $4.80 today. I bought pre-market and my limit sell order already hit for most of those shares. I'm going to keep an eye on it and see if the spread widens out again.
Man, even thought this tightened up to around a ten cent daily range you can still take $900 per swing out of this range each trip. I for one have been enjoying the beer money
-
Good post Cigarbutt. It probably obvious but of course the corporate income tax has been materially reduced as well.
-
43 minutes ago, OracleofCarolina said:
I have never seen any stories on that, is he still making those books?
I don't think he still makes the books. He tells some stories about the margin and first BRK share purchase in '83 here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6bPl1IXlhs
-
5 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
The US should voluntarily raise the interest rates on all federal debt to 20% annualized, not only would it make the owners of the debt really happy (including China) but it wouldn't cost anything because it would just flow back into the economy.
As far as T-bills go, which is where most of the government is funded, the Federal Reserve could do this almost immediately. And it would be incredibly inflationary. Not cost-less. Which kind of highlights the backwards nature of conventional thinking on Fed moves.
-
5 minutes ago, Eldad said:
Like 10% of it is owned by the Social security trust fund, so higher rates keep that funded slightly longer.
Unfortunately like 30%+ goes overseas.
Please don't lose any sleep over the social security trust fund.
-
15 minutes ago, Saluki said:
There's a video on CNBC now of Einhorn pitching his stock Solvay at the Sohn Conference. When I checked the prices, the shares in Brussels are up 4% and the OTC US shares are up 12%. And markets are efficient?
Presumably the Brussels market is closed and the OTC market in the US is open when he spoke about the stock
-
3 minutes ago, blakehampton said:
We desperately need an undo button. I just accidently deleted a long written response and I now want to kms.
Anyway, my response was formed around how there is currently a spread between bank reserves and the recorded assets on the FED's balance sheet. I believe that this is cash that has made its way into the economy through asset inflation. By buying bonds and injecting cash, the FED essentially made owning assets more attractive relative to fixed-income and cash, especially when you consider how low rates were and for how long they stayed there. I do agree though that it ultimately comes down to bank reserves. I think that the biggest focus during QT is gonna be watching reserves as they let the bonds run-off. I'm sure they don't want to put banks in a precarious situation.
Yes the current net interest paid by the Fed is stimulative and should be added to the deficit to determine the amount of fiscal stimulus we are currently getting. But this is stimulus now, not during QE. The net interest paid by the Fed (the losses they are experiencing on their balance sheet) are not big compared to the "regular" fiscal deficit.
So - during "QE" they were accidentally taxing the private sector and now that we are inverted and in "QT" their balance sheet is stimulating the economy by paying net interest into the private sector.
Not exactly what they were going for on paper...
-
1 hour ago, blakehampton said:
Isn't QE simply an asset swap of long-term bonds for cash, with QT being the reverse?
It sounds like that but in reality it is a swap of some type of Bond for Bank Reserves. Bank reserves are not useful or important and they can't be used to buy stocks or really make their way into the real economy. Lending by large Fed member banks is not constrained by bank reserves in the system. Lending is restrained by capital ratios, demand for loans, appetite to take risk, regulatory changes on what counts for what, etc...
New money ("inflation") makes it into the real economy in two primary ways. 1.) The government deficit spends it into the economy. and 2.) Banks make new loans.
Swapping one government liability (treasury bond) for another government liability (bank reserves) does not have much of an effect. It used to be that bank reserves didn't pay interest, so QE was actually taking away an interest bearing security that was paying interest to the private sector and leaving the bank with useless, non-interest-bearing, neutered banking system tokens. In that way, QE was the opposite of stimulus. It was more like a tax - and you can see that because the Fed was making a profit on the balance sheet and remitting the extra capital to the treasury. A tax is when money is transferred from the private sector and remitted to the treasury.
But then bank reserves started earning interest and the yield curve inverted and then you had bank reserves paying more than the bonds of the Fed's balance sheet so the Fed started running a loss.
The only thing QE did of any consequence was slightly tighten mortgage spreads while the Fed was buying those securities. That is it. A few basis points.
-
Yes, today's "unskilled" labor hauling packs of shingles up an extension ladder on his shoulder is tomorrow's "skilled" roofer. Yes, we need the kid who carries the shingles up the ladder. No, the kid who carries the shingles up the ladder isn't going to ruin your country.
How is the Fed going to cut rates with inflation over 3%?
in General Discussion
Posted
I expected a higher GDP print (and I'm always bearish LOL). I think rail traffic is actually fairly normal if you ignore Coal volumes. I don't think coal volumes are a big economic red flag personally. There is some shifting back towards the western railroads again I would imagine. I would expect BNSF to print a decent intermodal number. Auto shipments are high. Petroleum products and chemicals are high. Looks healthy to me as far as rail traffic goes.