doc75
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Everything posted by doc75
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Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
They sold the remaining 13.2 million shares today for approx $800k (0.06 per share). As usual with Dundee, I'm curious what triggered the sale, and even more curious what triggered the investment in the first place. -
Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
I've been holding my nose and buying some common. I may also top up a bit on the prefs. They seem much safer to me than the yield would imply. -
While we're on the topic... Anyone here follow/like Gramercy (GPT)? I've been in it since the recovery from the CDO days, so I'm sitting on a big gain. But I like the space they're in and I've been so impressed by management that I've kind of put it in a corner of the portfolio and not paid much attention for a while. Currently down substantially from its highs.
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There's been a lot of recent discussion of bitcoin on CoBF and I didn't keep up. So I'm doing the lazy thing and asking: Has the computational complexity (in particular energy requirements) of bitcoin transactions been discussed here somewhere?
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Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
There's probably too much margin of safety for them to invest in their own stock right now. Makes them uncomfortable. In all seriousness: I understand the need to maintain liquidity, but I'd like to see them put money into their own stock (or buying back prefs or whatever) rather than make new speculative investments. Pare the operations back to focus only on rationalizing the existing portfolio. Once the market starts giving them some credit, they can try to grow the company again. But the liquidity is to redeem the E class preferred isn’t it which is like buying back preferred. I understand why they want to maintain liquidity. But occasionally they're deciding to throw money at new investments (or put more money into old investments). This is also a draw on their liquidity. I'd rather see them put that money into buybacks. In some cases they may be putting more money into things to keep them afloat. Sometimes this is necessary and prudent but history has shown that they often throw good money after bad. At the very least I'd like to see them stop with new speculative investments. Surely they cannot expect better returns than investing in their own shares and proceeding rationally. -
Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
There's probably too much margin of safety for them to invest in their own stock right now. Makes them uncomfortable. In all seriousness: I understand the need to maintain liquidity, but I'd like to see them put money into their own stock (or buying back prefs or whatever) rather than make new speculative investments. Pare the operations back to focus only on rationalizing the existing portfolio. Once the market starts giving them some credit, they can try to grow the company again. -
Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
Couldn't agree more. But I think these guys have deluded themselves into believing they are astute investors (despite all evidence to the contrary), and of course they're getting paid a good salary to do play the game. If they tried to put some of their assets up for sale, I think we'd see some pretty significant write-downs on their fair-value estimate. -
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
You mean like the 2015 exit made possible by an orchestrated leak from... was it Alpha Capital Partners in DC, before everything tanked a few months after that? It's possible. I wasn't thinking of any specific analogy -- didn't even know about the 2015 orchestrated leak. To me it's simply a more rational motive for spreading the rumour. -
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Pardon me for being daft, but what exactly is the benefit of throwing a carrot at shareholders in this way? How does it grease the wheels of anything in particular (e.g. the jumpstart reauth)? Well yes, I had thought about it and wondered if that's what you meant. I still don't get it. The fake news only placates GSE shareholders. Nobody's been worried about our outrage for a decade so I don't see why they're too concerned with calming us down right now. Especially with all the court decisions going the gov'ts way. Would the congressmen be receiving materially more angry tweets about jumpstart without the subterfuge? I agree that it seems something screwy is going on. I just don't see the point of this little PR exercise, if that's what it is. My initial thought was that it provided a nice exit for some folks. -
Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
What specifically was the negative surprise you saw in the Q3 report? The continued poor performance of the operating subsidiaries, particularly Blue Goose. I was (perhaps naively) expecting some stabilization there but Q3 was sour and Q4 looks like it will be uglier. -
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Well, I speak out of my butt. But you seem to hear things and have sources... so we'll see. Pardon me for being daft, but what exactly is the benefit of throwing a carrot at shareholders in this way? How does it grease the wheels of anything in particular (e.g. the jumpstart reauth)? -
Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
These guys have presided over some crazy capital destruction, but they also aren't catching many breaks. News out recently about a big fire at the Tender Choice plant in Burlington. Apparently the building is pretty much destroyed. (From what I've read. Not a first-hand account.) It'll be interesting to see if there's a big rebound in the new year. This is a really strong candidate for tax-loss selling. I was surprised (on the downside) with the Q3 report and actually had orders in to sell at $3.15. -
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Do you say it wouldn't fly on legal grounds? Politically speaking, this seems like the obvious way to go. Trump made a big deal about "those hedge fund guys". Whether they were friends in the past or not is immaterial: I think he'd love a solution that buys him the Main Street credibility of denying some of those guys a windfall while still allowing him to raise the finger to the Obama legacy. BUT: I'm the first to admit I'm completely naive here. -
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
After Ackman's nonsense regarding Valeant, it seems sensible that the market applies a heavy discount when he talks his book. -
According to BNN guests/analysts I have listened to today the new rules will have some bite. Kind of hard to believe a family with 100k income is currently able to purchase a 726k home.... whatever happened to the 3x income rule! http://www.bnn.ca/polopoly_fs/1.887271!/fileimage/httpImage/image.JPG_gen/derivatives/default/new-stress-test-rules.JPG http://www.bnn.ca/osfi-sets-new-rules-for-mortgage-lending-1.887025 Maybe I'm misinterpreting, but how many first time buyers with $100k in family income are sitting on enough cash to make a $140k down payment (20% of 726k)? Is this computation by Ratehub actually indicative of what's happening, or a fringe/theoretical example?
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Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
The Parq Casino opened this past Friday (Sept 29) at 11pm. I've found surprisingly little media coverage of the event. Plenty of coverage leading up to the opening, but very little after the fact. Just a handful of folks on Reddit making moderately negative statements about the casino itself (poor layout, very small, no better than what it replaced, no buffet, ...) and some moderately positive comments about the food (biggest complaint: no buffet). I guess Parq is only licensed for the same number of tables as the Edgewater Casino that they replaced. So perhaps they'll see how things go and push for more tables at some point in the future. Still lots of construction going on in the outdoor spaces, and the hotels aren't even taking guests until end of October. BUT: The casino did indeed open, apparently without any huge issues. I think this is solidly in the positive column for Dundee investors. -
Agreed. Given their relative sizes and the market dynamics on the west coast, it seems very strange Vulcan is going to let USCR take this. But after posting here I read Vulcan's PR on the situation and it certainly implies they're moving on. I'm sticking with it as a place to park some cash.
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I see it's been nearly 7 years since this thread has been active. I've been watching Polaris (PLS.TO) for years as an asset story. I've been in and out a couple times, fortunately with lucky timing. I'm updating today because there have been some nice developments and an opportunity that may be of interest. In late August, Vulcan Materials (VMC) made a buyout offer at $2.79 per share, a very healthy premium over the $0.95 or so trading price. The shares traded in the $2.71--2.73 range after the buyout, but the sale agreement allowed for superior offer and for Vulcan to match any such offer. So I picked up some more because I was building cash anyway and I viewed this as a (nearly) risk-free way to have a liquid piggy bank that paid nominal tax-advantaged interest with material upside potential should another bidder come along. Last week, I woke up to a nice surprise: An unnamed buyer came in with a higher offer at $3.40 per share. Polaris shares then traded in the $3.60-3.70 range awaiting Vulcan to match. I sold half of my position because I felt the greed monster taking over. Today Polaris announced that Vulcan didn't match, and that they have entered an agreement with US Concrete (USCR) at $3.40/share. Shares traded down to $3.35 on large volume. But the agreement with USCR also allows for superior offers. Vulcan is 10x larger than USCR and may themselves come back with a counteroffer now that they know the identity of the other buyer. I bought what I had sold plus a little more. The spread is tiny, but if you're Canadian and are looking to park some cash then this offers a better after-tax return than any short-term risk-free fixed income I know of... and there's possible (albeit unlikely) material upside.
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Does it ever. I suppose there's some chance it's legit, but this has more red flags than a Russian military parade. Read the recent press releases, particularly this one trumpeting their engagement of "Mediatech Capital Partners": http://missionready.ca/mission-ready-retains-mediatech-capital-partners-to-facilitate-global-growth-initiatives/ Sure sounds impressive. Then enjoy Mediatech's website: http://mediatechcapital.com/
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Dumbdee - The Goodmans, The Bad & The Ugly - 30% of NAV bargain?
doc75 replied to sculpin's topic in General Discussion
I've been buying some more of the prefs (D series) over the past week as they were trading with a >10% current yield. Anybody else? -
Are Banff and Jasper crazy busy? To celebrate Canada's 150th b-day, Parks Canada was offering free entry passes to all of our national parks (for the whole year). I had heard that they were overwhelmed with the response and have wondered about the crowds out in Banff/Jasper. I'm on the east coast now and you've reminded me how much I want to get back to the mountains! If you have a chance, try to drop by Yoho National Park. Somewhat less busy and incredibly beautiful, with some fantastic day hikes. (Iceline trail is a favourite, if I'm remembering the name correctly.)
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Yeah! I mean, unless said person happens to be a woman who wants an abortion, or a man who wants to marry a man, or dumb things like that. But if living your life involves one-stop convenience shopping for guns and booze, or dumping your used car oil in a hole in your back yard, then conservatives often have a refreshing "live and let live" attitude. (In case it's unclear, tongue is firmly planted in cheek.)
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
Sure seems that way. Started at 11 am and allocated 6hrs of debate. Listening in the background. Dems are so f-ing painful to listen to.......absolutely clueless! Yeah it's a good thing Republicans never engage in political grandstanding, filibustering, obstructionism, mock indignation, etc., or nothing would ever get done. It's going to be quite a story for the Dems in the coming months if/when Mnuchin makes a bunch of HF a lot of money on Fannie/Freddie. They must know there are few stories with such potential to degrade the support of Trump's working-class base. I would think they'd want to save some energy now so they could turn up the volume when the time is right... but they've already got the dial set at 11. It will be a good time to sell some shares, turn off the TV, and go on vacation. -
And if there is anything recent events such as at Berkeley show, the left will simply not tolerate Trump supporters to exist. Milo is a provocateur who has made a fine living for himself as a professional troll. (Many of these on the left, too.) Berkeley is a far-left haven full of young idealists with lots of time to protest. Some type of protest was a foregone conclusion. But I find it scary that our universities are trending toward this idea that we should ban speakers if they have "heretical" views. I'm just baffled why a lot of lefties can't see Milo for the actor that he is; or Trump for who he is, etc. The alarmism is pretty unreal. IMO it only serves to lessen the impact of the broader left's argument on issues of substance, where perhaps there is a call for alarm. Nobody who was on the fence about Trump is going to listen to this type of screaming and say "I guess I was wrong". Also, the bipolar left-vs-right thing is so strange to me. It's a spectrum, no? What's the point of making over-broad statements like "the left won't allow Trump supporters to exist"? Is it tongue-and-cheek or is American politics really that divisive even at the average local level?
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FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
doc75 replied to twacowfca's topic in General Discussion
I'm "progressive", whatever that means. It doesn't drive me nuts if he was a smart guy who made money cleaning up a big mess. It does bother me if he is lying directly to the committee. Relevance? Perhaps none. I thought I had read that perjury in the confirmation process was serious business. I was asking particularly about robo-signing, where it seems he is either lying or there is some nuance I'm missing. See for example: https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-01-31/remember-robo-signing-at-banks-neither-does-mnuchin or https://theintercept.com/2017/01/30/mnuchin-again-denies-robo-signing-despite-yet-more-evidence-he-is-lying/
