wisdom

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-soft-yields-fall-china-021854137.html spainish deflation

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-26/richard-cunniff-sequoia-fund-founder-with-ruane-dies-at-91-1-.html

You cannot invest directly in stocks in India unless you are an Indian.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904628504579431002134993072.html#articleTabs_article%3D1 I had recently attached an article with Jeremy Grantham from GMO under Fairfax. He is G in GMO. They manage $120B. Their studies on bubbles are worth reading.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904628504579431002134993072.html#articleTabs_article%3D1 Jeremy Grantham GMO - learning to live with a bubble

What percentage of their GDP is $163 B? Is it significant enough considering how much has been spent over the last few years? I do not believe so.

BRK should have over $50B in cash now and $2B in cash coming in every month. That is $30B more than he would like. Just like 2007 increase in cash - it is happening again. He is not predicting but he is ready to take advantage of opportunities should they arise. Watch what he does - not what is says for the larger unsophisticated audience.

Potential opportunities in commodity rich countries Australia and Canada that have very high personal debt loads. It will be an opportunity to buy Canada and Australia on sale.

Buffett on CNBC - would be surprised to see a 50% drop in the markets or deflation http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000257192&__source=yahoo%7cheadline%7cquote%7cvideo%7c&par=yahoo

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-02-17/china-digs-itself-deeper-into-dollar-trap the dollar trap - why the Chinese reserves in US treasuries are trapped

If the Chinese govt sells treasuries - the prices on treasuries would drop and a large amount of the reserves could disappear. In addition, the spike in interest rates would kill any recovery that is taking place across the world. With the total amount of debt outstanding any increase in interest rates would be damaging to any recovery.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-pares-losses-after-us-sales-claims-data-2014-03-13?siteid=yhoof2 Now Europe wants to follow China and devalue too.

Canadian networth is overstated due to the increase is housing prices. Usually it tracks US networth pretty closely and average Canadian housing prices are in line with average US housing prices. In the US - an average person lost 20 years of savings during the GFC. - Their networth fell back to what it was in 1994, if I recall correctly. An american median house is less 3x median income whereas in Canada currently is it at 5.5x - I do not believe this has happened before. avg US house is around $230k whereas in Canada we are at $390k. Used to be within $10k of US housing prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/china-has-a-real-estate-bubble-saxena-QEQyoXq4QQa~JE2wvwm9rQ.html apparently housing in China is now valued at 400% of GDP.

This could be defationary if China needs to devalue the Yuan. Last Lever As the economy slows, the Chinese currency has fallen 1.3 percent in the past month, Asia’s worst performance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It’s strengthened 35 percent since a dollar peg ended in July 2005, leading gains in emerging markets. The spot rate fell 0.06 percent to 6.1436 per dollar as of 11:31 a.m. in Shanghai. The yuan’s exchange rate becomes “the obvious remaining policy lever left to pull” for China to support its economy, Richard Iley, a Hong Kong-based economist at BNP Paribas SA, wrote in a March 3 note. “Any genuine attempt to rein in excessive credit growth is quietly being shelved as growth momentum continues to ebb,” Iley said. The yuan will probably need to depreciate further to loosen financial conditions to steer growth, he said. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-12/pboc-battling-bubbles-seen-keeping-rates-elevated-china-credit.html

Pictures from Guiyang to put things in perspective http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8b131a14-0bf2-11e3-8f77-00144feabdc0.html#slide0 2012 article on supply coming into the market in Guiyang http://www.weekinchina.com/msingle/?mpage=15726 Housing in China by Jcapital http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/10/28/in-china-theres-not-one-city-sans-terrifying-stretches-of-empty-houses/

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140227000006&cid=1202 On housing in Hangzhou. It looks bad.

Buffett is increasing cash - He has increased cash by $27B or 100% from 2008. BRK should have close to $52B cash by now. That is $32B more than Buffett would like. At $2B per month he could be upto $70B in cash by the end of the year. Back in 2010 and 2011 cash was at $34B when BRK was only generating $1B cash per month. In 2008 and 2009 cash was at approx $25B.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20140227000006&cid=1202 Hangzhou housing prices slashed by upto 30%. Apparently this has shocked the local property market.

Gio has loaded up on FFH. He will do well if you are right.

Eric, you are sounding like Gio :)

I agree but that might be a little difficult given that you live in Canada like me :P LOL - Even though my earnings are in Canada most of my investments are in US and in USD. Tried to buy them while the US had been on sale over the last several years. Will buy Canada when Canada is on sale.

Predictions about the bandwidth required in the future have come true with recent developments and we will have to lay more fibre for the future. But, a lot of companies that built that network went out of business in the early 2000's. Just because there will be demand in the future, that by itself does not justify building out the infrastructure right now. You have to build it as the demand appears and the economics justify it.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/pimco-sees-30-slump-in-canadas-housing-market-in-time-cuts-holdings/article17194498/ PIMCO on canadian housing http://inagist.com/all/438794496860360704/ Ray Dalio on the Canada

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-27/china-s-subsidies-end-prompts-forecasts-for-slower-growth.html Impact of reforms and cuts in subsidies in China