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motownsf

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    Tepper

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    tepper is at the point in his career now where his media appearances will add alpha, ala DE and BA. Given the way he responded to one of the questions, I believe tepper feels this is the blow off phase. he will be selling to the cnbc/bloomberg "audience".

     

    Exactly...What what he does, not what he says.

    Chanticleer Holdings

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    What are realistic sales and EBITDA margins like for international Hooters restaurants compared to what the US concepts might be?

     

    I imagine EBITDA margins are lower than BWLD right now as Hooters was a struggling concept and HIG typically buys semi-turnarounds out of their buyout funds.

     

    BWLD has roughly 15% EBITDA margins. If Hooters has 10% EBITDA margins and does $2.3m per store roughly in the US, the average US store does $230k in EBITDA.

     

    I doubt the concept does the volume it does in the US because, while the emerging markets growth story is hot and sounds great, the average person in Africa and Brazil has much less disposable income to spend on wings and beer. They will need to grow the store count a lot going forward and one must believe in the growth story.

    Chanticleer dropped by 46%

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    What are realistic sales and EBITDA margins like for international Hooters restaurants compared to what the US concepts might be?

     

    I imagine EBITDA margins are lower than BWLD right now as Hooters was a struggling concept and HIG typically buys semi-turnarounds out of their buyout funds.

     

    BWLD has roughly 15% EBITDA margins. If Hooters has 10% EBITDA margins and does $2.3m per store roughly in the US, the average US store does $230k in EBITDA.

     

    I doubt the concept does the volume it does in the US because, while the emerging markets growth story is hot and sounds great, the average person in Africa and Brazil has much less disposable income to spend on wings and beer. They will need to grow the store count a lot going forward and one must believe in the growth story.

     

     

     

     

    Loeb vs Ackman - This ought to be fun to watch

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In a high unemployment environment, do you really think this administration will go hard against the MLM industry, which is made up of self-employed lower-middle class constituents for the most part, to benefit a hedge fund manager's short position?

     

    The vast majority of people who have been involved with Herbalife have lost money. The company claims that anyone who loses money is really a customer (not a distributor), but the truth is there are millions of failed distributors.

     

    The majority of businesses fail in general. I agree that MLM isn't the most ethical industry, but MLM will exist. Do you really think the government would shut it down, forcing distributors to lose their livelihood and a lot of money in rapid fashion?

     

    I think Ackman is toast in this short position, partially because he brought it upon himself by creating a public circus around an investment position. Short sellers like to do this, but many of the best short sellers don't have to, and you never read about them or their positions in the news.

    Berkshire 13-F

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    DaVita is a great business with obvious tailwinds (aging population with bulging waistlines=more diabetes). You have tremendous customer lock-in too, as customers come back regularly for treatments at the same facility.

    Fairfax will own 38% of Imvescor Restaurant Group Inc. (TSX: IRG)

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    There's an enormous difference between owning a restaurant chain and the franchisor of a restaurant chain. Franchising can be, and often is, a wonderful business.

     

    From Imvescors prospectus for the rights offering, 249 out of 253 restaurants are franchises. For Prime that number is 143 out of 154.

     

     

    Being a franchisor is all about marketing (to customers and potential franchisees). If you are good at that, you can grow, and then you are just a royalty collecting, cash-machine.

    Ryan Talking Out His Arse?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't understand how anyone can willingly say that they are casting a vote for Obama because they are so bullish about what he can do for the economy.  He has had his chance, and the results are quite mediocre, despite the increases in equity market values. He is a lightweight who is now just resorting to gutter political ads and character attacks on a guy (Romney) who is one of the most squeaky clean people on the planet (despite the flip flopping on certain issues). In thinking about the long-term future of the country, I know that Romney/Ryan have a more compelling plan and more credibility beyond just having a big checkbook and a printing press.

     

     

    The Secrets of See's Candies

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    I'm not too keen on the company's plan to expand widely relatively quickly.  You diminish the brand a bit that way, especially in a highly competitive and somewhat localized industry. 

     

    I remember speaking to Chuck in the past, and he said it was incredibly important to See's to maintain the quality of their chocolates from location to location.  You add days to delivery and that reduces the quality.  You then have to open more and more factories or warehouses, and that adds business risk.  The industry is very fractured from city to city.  There is always a hometown favorite that is dominant, and has significant history and nostalgia behind the brand. 

     

    So See's had deliberately chosen to grow slowly, allowing the brand to organically enter other markets as residents in those regions became more and more familiar to the brand by visiting stores just outside their area.  It's why I will drive two hours to Seattle to buy chocolates at Christmas instead of buying boxes at hometown favorites Purdy's or Rogers Chocolates.  You plop one down in Miami and it just isn't going to do that well.  Cheers!

     

    Exactly right.  Retail stores have to be very close to manufacturing centers in the chocolate business an inventory turns so quickly and quality/freshness ultimately determines the level of customer satisfaction. This doesn't hold as much truth in the bulk candy business (gummies), but is true with chocolate. Will be interesting to see how many new manufacturing facilities they open.

    Facebook Co-Founder Gives Up U.S. Citizenship

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    He is allowed to do what he wants and it's allowed under the rules.

     

    Yes, he became fabulously wealthy as a result of some skill, foresight and a lot of luck. A lot of that is a result of the system in place here in the US. However, this is his decision.

     

    It always amazes me how angry people get about how much everyone pays in taxes, how much money they make, etc. If you are a shareholder in that person's company, it's a legitimate concern. Otherwise, people do not work hard, take risk, etc for the sole purpose of giving their money to the government, particularly a government that is chronically irresponsible.

     

    I am sure Saverin is not going to sit back and not give back. He will probably donate a lot to charity, etc, which is a heck of a lot more impactful than sending it to Washington.

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