sdev
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Posts posted by sdev
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New leadership at the historic company.
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I have been trying to figure out ways to buy into this supply/demand imbalance for a while now - the only way that I have found to get this exposure via a smart manager has been the doubleline total return fund. However I still have not found a pureplay fund that is long only RMBS. Any ideas?
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Not to beat a dead horse, but I've been saying it for a while and I'll say it again - people are ignoring the quiet international expansion of Fairfax. They aren't giant game changing bets, but tally all of the individual investments and it turns out Fairfax now has minority stakes in leading insurers all over the world. Over the next 10 years, I expect these investments to come to life as these nations grow and insurance becomes a meaningful part of these economies.
One flat year for Fairfax - it's really no big deal!! I'd be angry if the steward of my capital was down 50% and dumped everything on the lows though! :P
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this is really old news.
How is this old? The company just started. I have no idea why its in the UK, maybe tax reasons?
If you consider Feb 2011 just starting, then yes it is new. It is most likely UK based because this is Berggruen's baby, not Ackman's. Berggruen has raised 1 maybe 2 UK SPACs already and this is just another iteration.
Hi Sdev,
Thank you for clearing that up. I did not think it was new bc I thought it was 11, I asked a friend who is analyst at distressed hf in London and follows Ackman if he could confidentially find out more information. At the conference Ackman talked about the company for maybe 3 minutes. My friend couldnt find any info, neither could I. He thought it was new. Ackman does not even show up as one of the shareholders (as of yesterday at least). You seem to know this company well so if you have any insights please share.
Hey Jacob,
I just read about it a while ago when I was reading about Berggruen. He has a really interesting story, and if you look up his wikipedia, there are some great profiles on him. They talk about some of the SPACs he's done in the past and one of them most likely mentions the Justice SPAC. All in all, I don't think there's anything particularly special about it, aside from the fact that it may be selling at a discount (I haven't looked at it). I think Berggruen's last SPAC didn't do so hot if my memory serves me correctly, but overall his track record has been amazing.
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this is really old news.
How is this old? The company just started. I have no idea why its in the UK, maybe tax reasons?
If you consider Feb 2011 just starting, then yes it is new. It is most likely UK based because this is Berggruen's baby, not Ackman's. Berggruen has raised 1 maybe 2 UK SPACs already and this is just another iteration.
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this is really old news.
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Keep it up Prem, seeds for the next 20 years.
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Fairfax supporter but don't understand how this moves the needle at all.
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I think dumping treasuries for equities on a large scale is not an option. Insurance regulators and ratings agencies would freak out. However I bet that if there were seemingly undervalued bonds that had adequate guaranteessuch as munis in 08 or munis they tried to buy within the last year but received no fills, they would swap out their treasuries.
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He's using options I believe. The volatility of JGB's that price the options is obviously extremely low at the moment. Therefore tiny options (tails) are extremely cheap and probably will stay extremely cheap until rates move. I'm sure you can get tremendous leverage buying options on JGBs if you have a dealer that will trade them with you. I haven't done much legwork but I don't know of a retail option.
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I live in soma, would be interested in stopping by here and there to chat.
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Mediocre quarter? Since when did we become short term investors? They continue to expand globally, are making whole acquisitions, buying dirt cheap franchises that are once in a lifetime (ireland)... I'm happy.
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That won't help investor confidence.
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Rents are way higher than 2007 here in San Francisco. That is, if you can find a place. I've heard of rental places having 30 applicants standing in line to just see the place.
Its looking a lot like the days of the dot com boom here. We found it much cheaper to buy than to rent. While real estate prices have not gone up in the city, Palo Alto has seen an 18% jump since last year. What recession????
I cannot agree more. SF is f**cking insane. I first hand had to battle exactly 30 people to rent an apartment. The bay area is absolutely dripping in money, and it feels like 1998-1999.
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dose Anyone out there got current info on the company ?
How do you value the water play in this ?
Why go after such a complicated play when much more transparent companies are on sale?
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This idea was actually mentioned in Grant's a while ago, and I believe it was posted on the board.
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Enjoyed that, thanks.
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I lived in Mongolia for a summer to do research so I reached out to one of the managers to hear about what it is like now. It seems as though they are having a good time out there and there are bargains to be had in real estate. That being said, I couldn't wrap my head around the multiple to assets that the shares trade. As you would expect, I also find it hard to wrap my head around the ridiculous GDP growth (+14.3% in the first half of 2011 alone). At worst, it is a fun company to follow and an interesting country to read about.
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Such a fun company to own!
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I have not kept up with the investment industry, but man, what is Paulson smoking???
"Despite healthy advances from their spring 2009 lows, banks may have more room to run, particularly if Paulson is correct in the estimate he made to investors, according to The Wall Street Journal, that housing prices will rise as much as 10 percent next year."
He deserves the beat down on his holdings and mass redemptions coming his way.
Always easier to criticize.
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The King Of California: J.G. Boswell and the Making of A Secret American Empire
That book is worth checking out if you are interested in the company.
I read the book after you recommended it, loved it.
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Must be fun to work there.
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Recently, my car was totaled due to somebody making a mistake and rear ending me. When I bought the car a year ago, I shopped hard to find an under-appreciated, unloved car that was functional for my needs and not shameful. That ended up being a Saab 9-2x. After the insurance assessor gave me the valuation report and claim amount, I was surprised to find that I stood to make 21% on the car over the 11 month period that I owned it. Sometimes it just pays to be cheap! More importantly, it reinforced that the price paid is paramount, something that as a novice investor I tend to lose sight of from time to time. 8)
Brutal Quarter For Sears Holding
in General Discussion
Posted
Sometimes a long string of great successes hinder an investor's ability to change course quickly when a wrong decision has been made - I for one am guilty of this.