mpauls
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Posts posted by mpauls
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My initial thought of this post was to compile a list of fund performances that are generally difficult to come by, but for completeness good performing mutuals might also be included, many of which will be found below.
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/mutualfunds.png
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We have to be very careful with these. Since they are only thinking short term, 1 & 3 years many of the top funds can hand have had a few years of out performance that will not continue longer term: Macro-self explanatory, managed futures-lots of leverage, Commodities-same as macro. There are also plenty of funds not on this list.
This is a good list skim through, but a large number of them can and should be eliminated from the list we seek.
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As with most things, you are better off thinking about it on your own, not to say you shouldn't seek guidance of sorts to helpn you find your way. I don't think that it is too difficult to figure out. You typically want to make many small investments of sorts since the outcomes are more or less by chance, and you seek opportunities that give you better odds better than a 1:1.
Look at Michael Price's past transactions and others who have done well and try to figure out the what and why.
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Sorry, I didn't read posts, but Rogers is a bit of a loose cannon.
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Fairholme (Bruce Berkowitz)
Source: FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC. (MAP) Letter:
Managed Account Program: Inception (December 30, 1999)
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/Untitled%202.png
Over one year, three years, five years and ten years, the MAP Average cumulative returns are -14.3%, +3.5%, +52.1% and +130.2% while the S&P Average cumulative returns are -26.3%, -22.8%, -10.9% and -20.3%. The MAP Average outperformed the S&P Average by 1,200, 2,630, 6,300 and 15,050 basis points in each of the respective periods.
Since inception, the MAP Average is up 215.8% versus an 18.4% increase in the S&P Average. $1 million invested in MAP when started on October 1, 1997 would have been worth about $3.16 million on June 30, 2009 compared to about $1.18 million for a like investment in the S&P Average.
Fairholme Fund
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/FairholmeFund.png
Chart
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/Fairholmefund1.png
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We can compare leverage, etc., later. Better to acquire as much solid data, compile a list, then discuss.
Also Paulson's returns are net of fees.
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[CMT] Weiss Asset Management [CMT]
He's outperformed his index by 20% per annum since inception (1991). I'll present details later.
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As a formality I'll come back later and summarize later, but here are the results for John Paulson's Funds.
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/Paulson%20%26%20Co.png
http://www.synthesispartners.net/Partnership%20Blog/Paulson%20chart.png
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paulson
The idea is to provide the results, not just names. Maybe best if not providing results with accurate support, to label [REQ] to request & [CMT] to Commit to providing results.
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FY 2008: Up just over 20%, mostly from multi-share class arbs.
2009 YTD: Up 57%, 11% cash 89% long equities.
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Collective efforts will make this much easier.
Why don't we compile a list of the best funds with at least a 10 year track record. This could be Hedge Funds, Mutual Funds, Money Managers, whatever, but there should be a solid basis for the numbers presented. This could be the numbers provided in a prospectus, PPM, letter to partners/investors, etc., but the idea is to support the stated returns with facts. In some cases this may require intuition (e.g. If you only have performance data from 1999, you could make a close approximation if the fund has been closed to new investors and you know current and historical AUM figures). If the support data is not easily uploaded, then send me a message, we'll exchange emails, I'll keep track, and make everything available once there is a decent amount of info. But I would first try to upload info to the forum so others can contribute, critique, etc.
Oh, "best funds" is with respect to Annualized Returns.
Unless someone else has another idea, let's try to do it in the following format:
10yrs
15 years
20 years
Since Inception - if 15 or 20 year data NA then next one would be Since Inception.
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It's a sad day when all people of North America are not filled with a sense of pride when our President (or the president of an ally) is even nominated for such an honor. Whether or not he deserves it is not up to us and the justification did not start on day 1 of his presidency. There are several past recipients of this award who won in the early stages of their efforts toward widespread peace throughout the world. These efforts may or may not have materialized, but the award was provided to them for their obvious efforts. If nothing else we should be extremely proud that the world has so quickly regained faith in the US and its allies.
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I tried to get in on this 3-4 years ago.
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On the other side, Phil Fisher used to talk about factors typically overlooked such as price decreases due to technology, innovation, R&D, and product life-cycles. For instance, the cost of a computer today vs 10 years ago. This doesn't exactly offset other increases, but a relevant point none-the-less.
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I apologize for getting sloppy at the end there, I'm just strapped for time right now.
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... to continue...
In order to deal appropriately with not only inflation, but also of the general standing 10-20 years out we must address several problems within short duration, not just one or two. The current financial fiasco was was caused by problems known well in advance. The real mistake was ultimately that these known future problems were simply ignored. They could have been addressed and at only minor inconvenience to a small proportion of individuals.
I fear that we might be making the same mistake again in light of our current circumstances.
Ideally if we were able to get expenditures under control we could avoid increasing taxes. However given we are still at war, will implement stimulus over the next few years, definite issues in health care subsidization, and aging population on the brink of social security, etc., an increasing pile of interest on national debt held abroad it does not appear as though this is possible in the near-mid term. Moreover we will as long as we buy gasoline have a negative trade balance.
So it would appear as though the only option is to change the tax policy. But that brings us back to the fact that we are still suffering and are far from being clear of the current mess, which makes increasing taxes unlikely and if not now then when?
and the cycle continues.
Also we must consider changes in:
Regulation
Financial Regulation (systemic risk & whether to limit banks to banking)
Corporate Internal Regulation (directors & corporate governance)
&
Trust in Government (Anything beyond skepticism bad)
Lobbyists
lack of sensible discussions/debate
poor job by media
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In response to the above post.
Indeed we have experienced inflation for well over 100 years. If I failed to acknowledge this, I acknowledge this. It's the above "normal" rates of inflation that I was referring to as "inflation." Bananas and houses are both commodities, which as I see it will not be the source of our felt problems. (Also I would be surprised if Bananas have kept pace with housing prices. I looked at housing increases a few years ago, and if I recall correctly, housing has increased by about 6.5 % over the last 35+ years. That is until 2004 or so.
Income increases lag price increases. ... something came up, can't finish now. will add later.
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CEO = Gates
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It will go up, then down, then up, then down, up again, possibly up a second time, then down again... oh, then up, down, up, and down.
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This is a blind post so I have no idea what he has said recently, nor do I know what his actions have been mid-term. But from what I understand he got burned last year and as a consequence went from a focused portfolio to a broader number of holdings. Had he changed prior, I'd have nothing to say, but if he changed as a consequence, there are unanswered questions.
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Search the site for past discussions on this topic. You can certainly make money with that strategy if (your dealing with less than 50-100 M and,) you don't just let the computer pick them. True here and abroad.
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Who knows when we will be able to feel inflation Though I don't think too much about this, I think the first signs will be felt in terms of imports. Cost increases on products manufactured abroad and imported in combination with foreign monetary policy abroad will facilitate domestic inflation. As the US increasingly becomes a smaller consumer as a percentage of world GDP, our effective bargaining power will decrease and prices will go up. This could very well take many years (I guess, more then 5 less then 20). Moreover, the treasury and fed can mitigate a large amount of what will otherwise be an oversupply of paper, by reducing the (arbitrary) capital they provided the banks. I do not think this can be done in the very short term, but I'd 'bank' this is exactly where they will focus energy. Good luck trying to guess, your better off dealing with this in other ways.
Let's compile a performance list of the "Best Funds"
in General Discussion
Posted
Ha that's awesome! Obviously this was a screen. I have not looked over the list. There may very well be more 'errors' of sort.