JEast

I assume many have been scratching their heads as to why the US 30-year bond has been rallying this year. At the risk of pontification, maybe the Asian central banks are just reading the tealeaves in the currency markets and specifically the Japanese ¥en. As the ¥en approaches 110 against the USD, the other Asian economies will nearly be forced to depreciated too. If/When this happens, I suspect the best place to park capital as a central banker or Asian corporate CFO is in US Treasuries while the drama plays out. If this comes to pass, the secondary effect is that the US will be importing non-inflationary 'stuff.' Stay tuned. Cheers JEast

Still premature and the topic of raising the FDI threshold in India to 49% has been floated for years. However, some progress is being made with the new government. Time will tell though. http://zeenews.india.com/business/news/economy/insurers-welcome-fdi-hike-pwc-sees-inflow-of-rs-1-lakh-cr_104698.html

With expected near all-time production records to be broken this fall in most grain crops, maybe the FED asked Putin to start an embargo to keep prices up. Record grain production should eventually flow thru to hurt the 2% goal and we don’t want that.

Please -- no more crop insurance. We have too much presently!!

The drumbeat diet of ZIRP seems to go on, and on. As Japan continues to print, the bonds continue to rise (rates going lower). The 10-year JGB is up nearly 20% over the last 18 months. Its like the limbo dance of how low can you go.

Yes, the late '90s were horrible for value investments as many company's earnings increased every quarter but the stock prices seemed to drop nearly every week. Two-to-Three years of pain then the best of times (comparatively). This was, in part, in the back of my mind and the reason I posted the thread as fundemental value folks may be getting pushed out. Prepare for more pain?? Cheers JEast

Is this a sign that folks are capitulating and going all in for the equity markets as the only game in town? [ftp=ftp://online.wsj.com/articles/emrys-partners-hedge-fund-shuts-down-1404413851]http://online.wsj.com/articles/emrys-partners-hedge-fund-shuts-down-1404413851[/ftp] Cheers JEast

Outside the Kiwi, the rest of the planet seems to still remain on a diet of ZIRP. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sweden-surprises-with-large-rate-cut-to-025-2014-07-03?dist=beforebell

[*]Autobiography of Benjamin Franklin, & other writings [*]Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits [*]Aggressive Conservative Investor [*]Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds [*]Intelligent Investor Bonus selection would be Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk. Cheers JEast

Nice interview with Eswar Prasad, author of 'The Dollar Trap' and why long duration treasuries may continue to be low, or go lower. Cheers JEast

I guess it is time to start talking about hurricanes. The consensus now is that we may get a minor El Niño year. I recall that last time we got a really good El Niño year was back in '97. For you skiers and boarders, that was a really good year. An El Niño year also pushes down the frequencies of hurricanes. http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/forecast.html http://www.farmanddairy.com/top-stories/el-nino-2014-new-1997/192085.html Cheers JEast

Gray Swans seem to appearing every other month now. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-02/german-inflation-missing-estimates-adds-to-case-for-ecb-action.html

Kyle Bass is also wondering when the story breaks. Japan continues to print and print, and more printing but the currency does not seem to want to break 120 and the yields continue to inch downward. The macro drama continues to play on.

Not to beat a dead horse on this thread, but I find this stuff interesting. Again one or two data points do not make a trend, but some data points are starting to gather potential steam. Hungary unexpectedly posted a negative inflation rate in April for the first time since 1968, widening the central bank’s room to continue Europe’s longest uninterrupted cycle of interest-rate cuts. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-13/hungary-inflation-turning-negative-widens-rate-cut-scope.html

Funny how the tide goes in and out. A year ago you were believed to be an idiot if you owned bonds, now the attached Bloomberg story tells us why 30-year bonds will continue to rally. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-04/can-t-find-enough-30-year-treasuries-to-buy-here-s-why.html Cheers JEast

Largest single one-time investment ever at roughly $550 million. FFH has added to positions to eventually be larger investments (e.g. Blackberry), but not this large of an investment in one step to my knowledge. $550m is a huge investment and no one on the board seems to have blinked.

I guess Roger Lace and company were finally comfortable with their DD, or a least enough for FFH's largest single equity investment to date (at least from my memory). Roadshow pitch attached. Cheers JEast Roadshow_Presentation.pdf

The Graham investing style over the years has tended to be highjacked into meaning severely depressed stocks or 'net-net' investing alone. I too am guilty of this highjacking in the language I use such as '50¢ dollar' or 'really cheap stock' and leave out some of the quality facets of why I include a stock into a portfolio. The fact is that in most of Graham's writings he actually espoused more quality aspects to investing more so then price as a singular criteria. In Chapter 13 of the Intelligent Investor, Graham defines seven (7) criteria for inclusion of a stock into a portfolio of which five could be be considered quality aspects and only two are price criteria. Attached is nice research paper by Robert Novy-Marx comparing Graham price investing to Graham quality investing. Also included in the report are comparisons of Greenblatt, BlackRock (Sloan), Grantham, and gross profitability styles of investing. Cheers JEast The_Quality_Dimension_of_Value_Investing.pdf

Yes, Richard Koo's Balance Sheet Recession (published in 2003) has been a big influence on my thoughts/opinion on this matter for the last 10 years.

Again one or two data points do not make a trend, but the data we do have is sure enough information to make one ponder a little. Given what we now know about behavioral finance these days (compared to 10 years ago) and the adapation of our cognitive biases into marketing efforts, they still can not get us to buy 2% more!! This seems just crazy. Stay tuned for more voyeurism this summer.

One of the better, if not best, articles I have read explaining part of the hidden story on Fairfax via Fairbridge Capital (the investment arm into India). Cheers JEast

Many love the TED programs, attached is another good one. (although a review if you have read any of Kahneman's books) Cheers JEast

From a few days ago as I did not see this posted. Once again, good job Patrick and Team! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/overstock-com-announces-two-patent-163000666.html Cheers JEast

[amazonsearch]The Dao of Capital[/amazonsearch] I enjoyed the book not so much for the investment acumen (though good, but I am biased to the view), but savored the content more so for the biographical aspects to some of the past economists and practitioners of the thesis of the book. However, I would caution the novice and casual reader that the mixture of both Chinese (Daoist) and German terms could at times slow the reader down as the author reverts back to the terms often.

Maybe my lens is too focused to be objective, but noticed this from Poland. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/polish-inflation-rate-undershoots-estimate-boosting-rate-pledge.html Also, a funny item (to me) from the US, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-14/wholesale-prices-in-u-s-unexpectedly-drop-on-cheaper-services.html Cheers JEast