JEast

Yes - I do have a smile on my face and glad you were able to participate. My normal game plan for selling is usually sell if you find something extremely better or that if it is near full to at full value. Currently with HRP-D, it is indeed nearing full value, but the dividend appears to be safe. Tough choice if you want to sell something for a short-term gain that would still yield you 15%+ for a few more years (depending on your entry price). For now I am holding as most of my "on deck" candidates are just outside my margin of safety. Damn this strong rally :) As a side note, I am surprised that some have started following SSW since when I originally brought it up there was silence. I like SSW more than HRP-D, but it also carries a little more market risk, but I do not believe it carries any excess investment risk at these prices. Cheers JEast

Though based on the latest update by NOAA, this El Nino is still expected to remain below average to moderate at less than +1.0C. However, it appears to be doing a job on the Atlantic Hurricane season as this is the latest in the season we have passed that I can recall. with had no landfalls to date and none in sight for another week. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html Cheers JEast

GuruFocus.com corrected their statement after missing an amendment by Fairfax. Cheers JEast

As Munger and Buffett tell us, you must ask the next question. Compared to what. There is usually a big difference between cause and effect. I would suspect that many just delayed their move to Florida and what would the number really be if one removed the deaths from the low number of 27,000 for those three huge counties. As for taxes, the state still has no income tax and insurance premiums have come down. Personally my premium decreased a whopping 27% this year. Cheers JEast

Nice "counterpunch" article. Not to beat this subject over everyone's head, but noticed this article today in the WSJ about -- Bottled-Water Price War Heats Up as Demand Falls. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125167502443470973.html I have always been curious about the sometimes obsession with designer bottle water and the price people were willing to pay for it over the years. Possibly connected to the social proof and commitment mental models (i.e. $5 for a cup of Starbucks coffee) and now the social proof is fading as we all become a little more frugal. Cheers JEast

As I mentioned at the beginning, it is a continuing battle of deflation versus inflation. In my neck of the woods, I still see prices going down from real estate, car prices, restaurants, to even groceries running sales. Though I have the money, I also still find myself looking at Ebay and Craigslist on occasion. In the short run, the government can print all the money in the world, but in Irving Fisher's terms if there is no velocity to that money, there will be no inflation as people are either becoming prudent or paying off debt. Competition is tough and business is trying to keep sales up, but its difficult and margins are going down though the market has been going up. I heard a talking head the other day say that the Russell 2000 Growth had a P/E of over 100 now. Maybe a little misleading, but still a curiosity to make one think. Side note: kawikaho, A few years ago I read a very nice book that addresses your point very well. "The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently." Cheers JEast

I would agree that Seaspan is the gold standard in the container ship lease side, but they are not out of the woods quite yet. However, if one takes a much longer term view of say 2-3 years, this one may have good times ahead. This view is somewhat tempered and balanced by the possible chance deflation aspects though. Also, all Seaspan's customers are having extreme difficulty, but are still currently paying the bills on time. -- Long Seaspan Cheers JEast

In the continuing battle of deflation versus inflation, this is a somewhat scary fact reported by the BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8225885.stm Maybe the bond traders have it right based on the very successful bond auctions recently and the talking heads have it wrong again. Cheers JEast

If one has not read any edition, one should also take a look at the new 6th Edition which I just finished. The introductory sections by guest writers of Warren Buffett, Seth Klarmen, James Grant, Howard Marks and others are small gems in themselves. Plus this edition is somewhat condensed by the editors and includes an attached CD if you would like to read further on the subject. Cheers JEast

CAT II heads for Taiwan. The bureau said the storm was expected to make landfall in eastern Taiwan Friday evening assuming it maintains its present course. It is expected to pass directly through the densely populated north, including the capital of Taipei. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t2/avn-l.jpg Cheers JEast

As always, an interesting read. However, the most interesting part, in my view, was in the footnotes and his reference to the items below. As I am an admirer of all things written by Garrett Hardin, his reference to Living within Limits was of some insight. It is also a Munger recommendation. Living within Limits: Ecology, Economics, and Population Taboos http://www.amazon.com/Living-within-Limits-Economics-Population/dp/0195093852/ref=cm_cr-mr-title The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See Cheers JEast

Yes, I guess that is why am not a big fan of the Priceline types as one never really knows where they are going to stay. For me, I purposely paid the extra $29 to stay away from Union Square so to be closer to China Town and still be in a high quality establishment. On occasion you get great deals, but then again, you usually get what you pay for. Cheers JEast

Do not be hesitant to look on brand name websites as many are now providing pay-in-advance discounts to counter the plethora of website search engines like Priceline and others. For example, I recently reserved a room in downtown San Francisco for $99 at a Hilton. However, if you miss your dates, you lose your cash and room. Cheers JEast

Wow, the world is turning topsy turvy :) After nearly 30+ years of debate, it appears they may actually start to explore and maybe drill again. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7NpJgNsRsIQ Cheers JEast

Its official, "El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10". Its still a little on the weak side based on the forecasts, so we shall see. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20090709_elnino.html Maybe this is the news for the somewhat recent rebound in FFH ?? Cheers JEast

Don't get too excited as Advent had a 10/1 reverse stock split in 2008. Cheers JEast

I believe what you really mean is that the highest consumption is in the most rural states. When you ponder on it a little, why wouldn't this not be the case. If you live in California, who needs porn consumption when you can just walk into your local massage parlor :) As a side note, it was for the longest time that Utah was the highest consumption per capita and I was surprised that they have dropped. I guess since the Olympics the state has become slightly more secular. Also as a side note, guess what the most popular show in Iran is? Reruns of Baywatch. Cheers JEast

Though currently unprofitable and a concern, could bode well for the future. Something we should keep tabs on and ask about at next year's annual. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Economy/Health-insurance-to-drive-growth/articleshow/4739103.cms Cheers JEast

Looks like HRP is using some of the cash from the GOV float. http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=ACBJ&data-ipsquote-timestamp=20090624&id=10063420 It appears that HRP paid only $134M and "in cash" for this nearly fully leased government building. Cheers JEast

I would double check the comment that you can not invest your IRA/401K in something you can control. There are actually several options available including setting up LLC for real estate investments, partnerships, etc. The paperwork is hell, but just do a web search. Cheers

Remember when this was first approached, HRP-D was in the $7-$8 range. As for leverage, HRP is one is in the lower quartile for debt that I am aware of for most REITs. Plus the spin-off of the GOV IPO just provides a little more cash for HRP-D Preferred. Also, this is not a mandatory conversion but the holder has the right. Cheers JEast

Not so fast. Though I would love to have an El Nino both for investment purposes but also because of the good ski conditions :) "All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009." http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html If memory serves me well, a really good El Nino year would need temperatures in the +1.5C to +2.5C area, not the current +0.4C. Cheers JEast (formally 653211)

I have not heard anyone discuss this new option. Anybody use it yet? Cheers JEast

The header and footer banners are fine. However, the banner that looks like a posting at the bottom is a little annoying. Cheers

Cities and states trying to feed at the Washington trough. http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/26/business/26muni.html?ref=business Cheers JEast