mhdousa
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Posts posted by mhdousa
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And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.
This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.
I'm not sure that is a fair assessment. Show me another message board or investment website with as comprehensive a database of comments and analysis on equities like we have in the "Investment Ideas" section without "internet trolls"? How about a list of investing/finance/psychology books with comments from readers, other than on sites like Amazon, etc?
Politics may seem annoying at times, but history shows that how politicians handle periods of crises, can ultimately decide the severity and duration of the eventual outcomes. Whatever people may want to say about Obama, and really Dubya as well, in my opinion the overall outcome of the financial crisis was handled relatively well by both, when you look at the magnitude of how things could have unfolded and how fast liquidity disappeared. How would things have turned out under Clinton, Reagan, Roosevelt, Nixon, Kennedy...and Trump?
Studying the historical actions and outcomes of political leaders, and their parties, actually can provide investors valid information in making decisions. Ultimately, as value investors, we base our decisions on fundamentals. But during some periods of excess or crisis, macroeconomic events can have significant, and long-term effects...such as the Great Depression, World War 2, the creation and likely breakup of the European Union, etc.
Cheers!
You're right. I was being excessively harsh. But I (and others who have contacted me through PM) feel that the board would be much improved if political discussions were aggressively moderated. You're right that political events can have effects. But that is not close to what is being discussed here. Most of the posts in this thread have absolutely nothing to do with investing. They are attacks on either politicians or other posters.
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And this is particularly concerning on a message board of "value investors" and supposed Buffett and Munger disciples; you know, people who are supposed to look past the circus and at the raw facts.
This hasn't been a "value investing" message board in a few years. It's basically a politics board with some investing thrown in.
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Schooling is a fraudulent transfer of wealth & money laundering scheme from working and wealthy Americans to liberal professors and educators who would otherwise not be capable of making it in the real world. In return, children are brainwashed to support Democrats and Democrat causes. This has been going on for decades. It's no wonder that the higher the level of education, the bigger a Democrat you are likely to be. Anything that takes away from public schools and gives to private or alternative solutions is good by me.
I think it's so amazing that everyone is up in arms about the for-profit universities that figured out how to turn a profit off of a corrupt and horribly gamed system, and yet not a peep about the public of universities that provide education to millions of people who will never be able to pay back their student loans. At least the for-profits were honest about their intentions; but, classic Democrats, the real universities didn't want them shining a lot on the industry and figured that sending the Feds after them would be a good way to get competitors' mouths out of the trough at the same time.
I have made to sure to vote against all of the funding measures on the California ballot as far as the schools are concerned; if I had my way there would be no money spent on public education. It is a waste that goes to fat cats, pension benefits and what amounts to a giant make-work project.
This board is terrible now, and this is a prime example of why. WTF does this have to do with a Joel Greenblatt or investing at all?
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Just saw this on Mutual Fund Observer:
Chou has voluntarily decided to waive its entire advisory fee on the Chou Opportunity Fund (CHOEX) beginning on January 1, 2016. In addition, on February 18, 2016 Chou made a voluntary capital contribution to the Opportunity Fund in the amount of $918,468, which approximates the advisory fees retained by Chou with respect the Opportunity Fund last year. Why, you ask? The advisor describes it as “a gesture of goodwill … in recognition of the fund’s underperformance” in 2015. That’s an oblique reference to having lost 22% in 2015 and another 20% in the first two months of 2016.
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Hi -
I know we've got a few Toronto folks on here. I'm putting together an evening networking get-together for about 75-100 young physicians, ideally near the Westin Harbour Castle. It should be somewhere relaxed with drinks and decent food.
Thoughts?
Thanks!
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2015 YTD Returns (through 12/3/15)
S&P 500: +1.59%
FAIRX: -6.64%
FAAFX: -12.43%
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CHOEX: -20.42%
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Income Fund Comparison
FOCIX: +1.06%
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CHOIX: -13.72%
Both manager's equity funds have that SHLD wildcard :o
And 11 months of returns are indicative of what?
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The best advice I've seen is that we don't know what tax policy will be down the line, so best to diversify retirement assets and have some in each.
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Love: FC Barcelona
Hate: Real Madrid
Love: Lionel Messi
Hate: Cristiano Ronaldo
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Huge difference between Partnership and Mutual Fund returns over the Q.
I wouldn't say it's "huge". FAAFX (which has the widest mandate of the mutual funds) returned 4.9% in the 1st Q vs 8.3% for the partnership.
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Anyone know if they take US investors?
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Mutual Fund Observer says that Frank is shutting his mutual fund down. Not surprised:
http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=MFVRX®ion=usa&culture=en-US
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This is from the letter that mentioned the unconventional idea of BRK. I think "unconventional" means the resistance to the idea back then, and has nothing to do with leverage.
Three years ago BRK represented a slam-dunk idea yet drew unease from outsiders that had read our letters, causing many to leave us at the altar due to our unconventional stance and commitment to our reasoning.
We unloaded most of our BRK position in 2014. Our decision was driven by outside opportunities and a diminishing gap between price and value. I’m happy to report that over roughly 41 months of ownership, our unconventional BRK holding outpaced the S&P in fine fashion, registering a gain of more than 170%. The premise of our BRK thesis always rested upon minimal risk concurrent with a high probability of adequate return, analogous to a 3-yr T-bill yielding 15%. Such an unusual opportunity (carrying almost zero chance of major loss) and associated large position size should be considered an anomaly rather than a regular occurrence.
It was leverage. There was a Smartmoney article about it. And this is from the 2011 letter:
As BRK declined in price (though in our opinion, increased in
value), we bought more—a lot more: able to borrow at around 1.5%, we levered BRK into a
50%+ position. Though not advocates of leverage, we believe the low cost and modest amount,
combined with BRK’s iron-clad safety and cheap price, makes our action sensible.
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In his letter he mentions his "unconventional Berkshire holding". Anyone know more details about what this was?
Guessing here, but he held a 60% position in BRK
He was buying BRK on margin.
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Anyone heard of Scott Miller at Greenhaven Road?
http://www.greenhavenroad.com/
Seems to have put up Meacham like returns the last few years.
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I may have missed it, but surprised no one mentioned Alan Meachem (the "400% man"). He did another 28% this year, after 2013's nice 52% gain.
MH--If you don't mind me asking how did you conclude/hear that Meachem earned 28% last year?
A friend is invested with them.
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I may have missed it, but surprised no one mentioned Alan Meachem (the "400% man"). He did another 28% this year, after 2013's nice 52% gain.
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I don't know anything about renting a house, but I know that there's a pretty big community of people who are obsessed with all kinds of real estate investing, being landlords, etc. I'd start by digging around this site:
http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2013/01/04/how-to-rent-your-house/
Sorry if it's not what you're looking for.
This is super helpful. Thanks!
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Assuming you don't need whatever capital you could extract from a sale, I'd be all for it - run the numbers on what your free cash looks like 15-20 years out on a rental property, it's phenomenal. Also, as I'm sure everyone knows, the transactional costs of exiting a property are egregious. Might as well hold onto what you've got as long as it's not an uneconomic endeavor.
If you're only looking to hold onto it for another couple of years, then perhaps it might not make as much sense.
Thanks. I don't think there would be free cash flow as our rental price would probably just cover our current principal+interest+property taxes. But maybe I didn't totally understand what you were implying.
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Hi all -
As a follow up to my thread about asking what I should do about a move (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/move-for-a-job-or-stay-for-personal-reasons/), we decided to make the move to Philly.
Now I have to decide what to do about our house that we bought about a year ago. We don't plan to buy in Philly right away, and so are thinking about putting our current house up for rent. We've gotten some advice against this because of the hassles of managing the house from a distance. The house is 4 BR, 3 BA and is in great shape (built in the 50s, gut renovated in 2007). Because we'll be about 2 hours away, and we're not handy people, we thought we might use a property management company. Comparable houses in the area rent for about $5000/month.
The pros are to continue to get the tax benefit and to continue to hold real estate in case the market takes off in the next couple years. The downside is having to be a landlord.
Anyone have any thoughts about this sort of thing?
Thanks!
M
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There are some situations that lend themselves easily to formal mentor-mentee relationships, like school or training situations. This isn't one of them. So, rather than straight out asking someone to be a mentor, you might ease into the process by starting to email some of these firms and see if there is someone who would be willing to answer a few questions about the industry. See who stays on the phone to chat and who is trying to get off the phone as quickly as possible. If you find someone who is willing to chat and provide their expertise, ask them if they can suggest reading material and if they would be willing to do a follow up call sometime. If you bring intelligence and curiosity to the conversations, you'd be surprised at how people would be willing to help you.
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Guys -
Thanks for all the fantastic advice. Too much good stuff in here to reply to individual comments, but I do appreciate those who gave their own personal stories.
Just to clarify something, my wife is actually the major breadwinner in our family and because my hours are pretty rigid and hers (as a consultant) are crazy, I end up doing a lot of the childcare and cooking duties (which I love).
The suggestion of looking at Maslow's pyramid was a fascinating one.
I have not made a decision, but this was some interesting perspective.
Thanks!
Jay
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Hi all-
Thanks in advance for reading.
I've run through a job decision a million times in my head over the last couple months and am at the time that I have to decide, but still am not sure what to do.
I'm an academic subspecialist physician and have gotten recruited by one of the top 5 hospitals in the country. I am currently at what I would call a tier 2 hospital (generally ranked in the 30-50 range), though it is still academic and affiliated with a medical school. The group I would be joining at the new hospital is one of, if not the best in the country and is a group I have worked closely with during my training in the past. So I know them quite well and it would be an exciting group to join. The hospital is equally outstanding. This hospital is a couple hours from where we live now but is located in a major city.
However, my wife's family is in the area where we live now. We have great friends who live in our area. We just bought a house that we love and our toddler daughter is in a great child-care situation. My wife works in finance and, while she could transfer to the office in the new city, it brings up some job uncertainty as she is quite established and very highly-regarded in her current office. Though she does not want to move, she is very supportive if it would be better for my career. I am often frustrated by the personnel at my current hospital, as I feel I deal with a lot of incompetence on a somewhat daily basis. However, we serve a very poor population and that is incredibly rewarding.
Pay and benefits are equivalent between the two jobs.
It comes down to that I want to take the new job, but I don't necessarily want to move my family.
Any thoughts?
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Berkowitz has barely beaten the market over the last 10 years...
He's beaten it by about .75% annually over the past decade (which is top 9% of his peers according to morningstar). That includes terrible years like 2011 and this year. Since inception, his fund has destroyed the S&P 500. A $10,000 invest in FAIRX at inception would now be almost $49,000 vs about $17,300 for the S&P 500.
I think the 10-year ranking speaks more towards the general poor quality of most mutual funds and the difficulty for funds in the Large Value category (which is where morningstar places FAIRX) to distinguish themselves.
Most of Fairholme's outperformance came in its earlier years when it was much smaller and Berkowitz wasn't a media whore. See the attached 5-year rolling returns. Since rolling periods starting around 2007, it has been worse than the index.
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If I wanted to find a lazy portfolio that will very likely beat the index by a good margin I'd consider Joel Greenblatt's new fund Gotham Enhanced Return (GENIX).*
*Minimum investment is 250K
Not too familiar with this one, but I see a fund that turns over its portfolio >3x a year and has pretty high expenses. Can you talk a little about this?
Question For Those That Voted For Trump
in General Discussion
Posted
Anyone know if this shitshow thread qualifies as a huge political discussion yet?