I think it is not so straightforward comparison between current invasion of Ukraine and possible invasion of Taiwan. Current Russian lack of success in Ukraine is not so much due to their outdated equipment and conscripts but rather due to their complete failure of planning it. It currently seems they didn't plan to fight a war. They planned to drive to the Kiev and other major cities and declare their victory. Also Taiwan territory is 15 times smaller than Ukraine, so lot less land to occupy. If Chinese military actually plans the invasion and takes Taiwanese defense seriously, it might have its chance to successful invasion.
