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competitive-advantage

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Posts posted by competitive-advantage

  1. 22 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

    -So he is averaging up, also think about what he has not only said, but actually written about allocating capital to your 5th or 10th best ideas in the 1993 Letter, now using basket approach of 5, and now also implementing leverage ⁉️:classic_huh:

     

    I agree John. Munger also talked about doing this in pharma because it's a smart move if Berkshire don't know what's the best investment.

  2. I totally agree that there's a difference. Chat GPT don't link so much and it's harder for Open AI to do because the data is old. Bard is making a lot of links to external sources, so Alphabet is already trying to pay with visits for the content used instead of cash.

     

    I like the Napster analogy. If the same happens for AI as for the music industry it would lead to paid subscriptions, ads and royalties.

  3. 11 hours ago, mattee2264 said:

    So generative AI doesn't seem to understand the concept of copyright. And copyright infringement could become a major issue with a lot of lawsuits. NYT has already sued OpenAI/Microsoft. Disney seems also to be weighing up filing a lawsuit.  Seems like it could be something that could slow the progress until it gets sorted out and perhaps pour some cold water on the Ai enthusiasm in 2024. Any thoughts? 

    I'm thinking about 2 scenarios from similar areas. We have the search model where websites have to be there to get visits and there is a mutual benefit for both websites and the search engine. We also have Youtube where the copyright owners gets some cash for their content, but to be honest it seems like Alphabet make some huge amounts on all the content that's not connected rightfully to the copyrights owners. I guess it will be closest to the search engine model because the AI companies will benefit most from this and the content owners have low negotiating power because there are many of them with similar content. 

  4. Thanks for all the recommendations. I've have just subscribed to many of them.

    I like the 3 episodes about cybersecurity from The stock Universe. It's very specific about fundamentals and with many tech details:

    https://podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/the-stock-universe/id1692081810?i=1000617001065

    https://podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/the-stock-universe/id1692081810?i=1000623466788

    https://podcasts.apple.com/dk/podcast/the-stock-universe/id1692081810?i=1000628850983

  5. I did use it on Apple when I invested back in the beginning of January. I just used the standard values and then waited for a little more than 20% margin of safety because there were some bad regulatory news that I needed extra margin for back then. At the moment it's the best valuation technique I got, but I'm studying Business Administration and reading a lot etc. on the side, so I will get more skills and knowledge to use in the future.

  6. I recently listened to a danish podcast with the investor Jeppe Kirk Bonde as guest. He seems like a hardworking guy with a great research setup. He recommended the book "Valuation", which I plan to read soon: https://www.amazon.com/Valuation-Measuring-Managing-Companies-Finance-ebook/dp/B0892ST8ZM

     

    His investment performance over the last 10 years should be 25%.

     

    More info:

    https://www.bondeinvest.com

    https://www.etoro.com/people/jeppekirkbonde/stats

     

  7. On 8/15/2023 at 3:33 PM, Luca said:

    For the danish folks here, @John Hjorth, I will travel with the GF to Copenhagen for the weekend, anything worth doing and not worth doing, we thought of visiting Rosenborg Castle, statens museum? What do you recommend:))

    Hi Luca. I'm danish too and besides the other great suggestions my favourite places are:

    Tivoli Gardens (including a danish concert friday evening included in the entry fee)

    Botanisk Have (flowers etc.)

    Nyhavn boat trip (canal tours: https://www.havnerundfart.dk)

    Glyptoteket (Danish art, French art, Egyptian stuff, roman stuff)

     

    Places with less tourists and more locals:

    Christiania (including a free danish concert sunday evening)

    Assistens Kirkegård (graveyard with HC Andersen, Kirkegaard, Ørsted, Niels Bohr and other famous people)

    Nørrebroparken (really nice vibe, park, volleyball, soccer, skating)

    Fælledparken (big park with a lake and really good vibe too)

    Frederiksberg Park/Søndermarken (2 parks next to each other) 

     

    Have fun

  8. Sorry @schin and @ValueArb. I was too quick, but now I read about some other interesting Herberts, so it's never a waste to do some research 😀

     

    "Forbes listed some of his notable home runs, including IPO purchases of Apple AAPL, +0.94% and Microsoft MSFT, +0.94% and a big enough position in Heico HEI, -0.04% to make him the company’s biggest stakeholder."

     

    “My thing is,” Wertheim told Forbes, “I wanted to be able to have free time. To me, having time is the most precious thing.”

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-small-businessman-rode-this-warren-buffett-inspired-strategy-to-billions-2019-07-01

     

     

    "People always cited him for high principles, brilliance, good advice, and generosity. “You’d like to die with the respect of somebody like Herbert Allen,” a guest gushed"

     

    "Buffett had always been one of the most appreciative of Allen’s beneficiaries. He loved Sun Valley as a family vacation, for left to his own devices at a mountain resort with his grandchildren, he would have been at a complete loss for what to do. He had no interest in outdoor activities other than golf. He never went skeet shooting or mountain biking, thought of water as “a prison of sorts,” and would rather go around handcuffed than ride on a raft." 😀

    https://www.today.com/popculture/warren-buffett-billionaire-s-tell-all-bio-wbna26888245

  9. Tom Stoker seems like a really nice guy with great energy. In the beginning he always praise people to get better interactions - no matter if it's true or not. Typical for a good sales guy I assume 😀

    It was actually $510.000 he bought the pass for and he describes here that the first 10 years were mostly business focused flights to Australia etc.

     

     

    He's doing good in business and have really taken advantage of this deal. If you want to read more about him then check out his LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomstuker/

  10. What a fantastic story. It brought back a couple of memories.

     

    Once, I was on a ski trip with a man who had rigged a television bingo game here in Denmark. The channel allowed viewers to print out bingo tickets from their website, and this man had somehow deciphered the system, enabling him to win as quickly as possible. He won an array of prizes, including an old fire truck, until they eventually discovered his scheme.

     

    My father's story is another interesting one. He has managed to get an exceptional deal that allows him almost free access to local soccer matches. Over the years, he's purchased numerous cars from the same dealership and has developed a friendly relationship with them. Now, he can pick up complimentary tickets for matches for the local soccer team in the top Danish soccer league. These aren't inexpensive tickets by any means, so he tips for the staff's 'coffee budget'. As he often says in Danish, 'He who lubricates well, drives well'.

  11. 6 hours ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:

    Have many people here tried rotating out of investments like apple and msft and into BRK during times like this when the market is feeling pricey? I’m not one to move to cash, but selling some big tech and increasing brk feels like a prudent move. 

     

    I'm keeping my Apple ownership for now and just remember that Berkshire owns 47.8% of Apple in their portfolio.

  12. On 6/17/2023 at 4:35 PM, Spekulatius said:

    UNH and ELV are quite similar business. UNH trades at a considerable premium ELV and the rest of the health care space and at least for the UNH- ELV pair, the valuation premium for UNH over RLV seems too high for me. UNH has great operational performance and the stock has responded accordingly which is one of the reasons for the premium.

     

    Health care insurers are incredible business due to their cash generation ability. Their liabilities are short term in nature and much of the business is not insurance at all, but more of a fee for service or subscription business.  It is a way better business than Pharma in general, imo.

     

    Elective procedures are procedures for non- acute conditions and there is a fine line to absolutely essential procedures. The fact that the incidence rate of elective procedure rises could be an indication of a weakening labor market and fear of layoffs. People often get medical stuff done when they think they may lose their health insurance temporarily due to getting laid off , but that’s just my hunch.

     

    As for ELV, the part that’s missing are insider purchases - I have not seen any. Insiders  didn’t even buy in summer 2020 (when I bought most of my shares) and that would have been a very good time to do so, so maybe their timing acumen isn’t that great.

    Thank you very much. This was really helpful. I also read something about that some elective procedures were postponed because of Covid-19, but your assumptions makes great sense to me too.

  13. 14 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

    Added a bit more $ELV in several accounts on the dip a few days ago, caused by $UNH mentioning more selective procedures on the GS conference.

    Will you explain why ELV is the better choice? And what are selective procedures? I have looked into UNH recently and the pharma industry to get more knowledge about this subject.

  14. Munger allows Li Lu to invest a significant amount of money on his behalf. Munger has also made comments about Li Lu 'fishing where the fish are' - in China. He seems to have gained a great advantage from this during his career. I have watched many of Li Lu's speeches and I don't recall him ever bragging. He appears very intelligent and is willing to share his insights. I'm not sure about the exact numbers and if Li Lu ever told this story by himself, but when I listen to how he works it seems like he could make pretty outstanding returns. The video below mentions +19% for his funds during the years.

     

    I found the video below about a Timberland investment that made Li Lu 600% in 2 years and the tweet that is mentioned in the video:

     

     

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