tyska
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Posts posted by tyska
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SD, I was never good with crosswords. :-[ Who is the "elevator news network"
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Is there no end to the length of time that they can keep extending this. It's like having a tooth pulled in slow motion.
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I would still take abh all-shares at a ratio of 0,1 for an fbk share.
Currently i have tendered my shares to Merc because abh is too much below fair value (unfair)
Good luck, we will need that. I doubt they will up their bid by that much tho.
As much as I hope for some of the scenarios, mine is more dour. They have tested the waters as to if there is anyone to stop them from pilfering the minority shareholders. They are now emboldened by what they have found so are free to carry on. Maybe a wink wink nudge nudge to Steelhead to tender or even just vote their shares along for management changes and a distribution of the spoils later. All these thing wouldn't be done if any ethics were involved, but it's pretty obvious that isn't in play here. So I guess good luck is about all we have left.
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I've tendered to Merc also. Probably costly lesson on investing in anything in Quebec. Changed my opinion of Fairfax forever also. The regulators seem to have gone out of their way to thwart the minority shareholders getting more value for shares. Maybe the corruption runs deeper than just construction there.
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Steelhead is in a position to buy millions of shares around 1.00 and flip them to Merc at 1.40 almost overnite if they elect to vote merc and merc is much better paper and future than abh imo
On the other hand, that's an argument that they should want to feed money to ABH to protect their investment there...
I thought they had an interest in Mercer also.
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The lock-up group tendered enough shares for ABH to meet it 46%+ acceptance requirement, which permits ABH to make a follow-up 2nd stage bid for the rest of ABH. However, ABH did not get the 50%+1 they need for control, because their bid price is inferior.
We expect Mercer & Steelhead will eventually tender to ABH, but they will work together to force ABH to increase its bid. If ABH underbids, Mercer could marginally raise its bid above the ABH offering, Steelhead would tender to to it, & ABH would be forced to either bid up or sell into Mercers better bid. Both ABH & Mercer have incentive to keep bidding up, to maximize the losers gain on capitulation. The virtuous spiral that ABH is petrified of.
The reality of course, is that this is no different to auction bidding on a storage locker. To spike the spiral - the strategically minded would throw out their best bid, & make it high enough that Mercer & Steelhead would appear to be chiselling if they contested it. To cave - Mercer gets a gain of the (bid price - their cost) x the number of shares + the 8M break-up fee. Steelhead gets the (bid price - their cost) x the number of shares + whatever they make on the US Mills (assumed). FBK shareholders get the higher price - & most would assume that will include the lock-up group in some form or another ;)
We live in interesting times.
That part I understand, but does Mercer have shares outside of what is being tendered to them now, through their offer. And the offer is still open if I understand it correctly, not sure till when though. So if another offer came from ABH now wouldn't those shares tendered just be moved over to the ABH bid. So Mercer wouldn't gain on them, the shareholders would. So many changes, trying to remember, did Mercer have a minimum share number on their bid?
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ABH is now clear to make a 2nd stage offer. New ball game, & they need a price high enough for BOTH Steelhead & Mercer to tender. If ABH does not include the PPA - Mercer need only marginally top the ABH bid - to give Steelhead the argument not to tender their control block to the inferior ABH bid.
Not quite sure if I follow your line of thought there SD. Are you meaning the shares that are tendered to Mercer now, in connection to getting both Steelhead and Mercer to tender. As I understand it the Mercer offer doesn't close until the 21st or 25th of April now, not sure if it is 10 calendar or business days. Is ABH going to hold out till then before making this offer and do you think they would really slap the lockup group in the face buying their shares for a dollar then turning around and offering more to others. Not saying that I doubt it, just wondering if you think they are capable also. ;)
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I see pulp is up across the board this week also.
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Maybe resolute can make a quick buck off the lock up. Take in the shares then tender to the mercer bid. ;)
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One would like to think that someone will give resolute a a smack upside the head and they will make a fair offer and end this. But I worry they are just too hard headed for it to work.
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http://www.canadianinsider.com/node/7?menu_tickersearch=tot
They have been fairly steady at about 15,000 shares a day, give or take the odd day lately. I know I have come across what percentage of the average daily volume companies can buy back. But seem to be unable to find it right now. Does someone know off the top of their heads what it is.
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Interesting thread, seeing how I just had this sort of debate with my 17 year old son who wanted to go paleo. I couldn't see the logic in it and I think he is questioning it also. I challenged him to look back through our genealogy and tell me which relative of his he thought would have lived a longer or healthier life by having cut grains out of their diet. Both sides of the family have the benefit of most relatives from the last three generations living fairly close by, so have first hand knowledge of health problems for them. But even the genealogy from generations before, while the average lifespan may have been shorter. When a person looks at it, a lot of the deaths were children with pneumonia or young women in child birth, which lowers your average life expectancy quite dramatically.
I think a lot of the problems of the last two generations can be connected to processing. Which I guess is avoided in the paleo diet, but can be avoided with grains also if you work at it. The grains eaten a few generations ago were oatmeal and bread. The oatmeal would have consisted of rolled oats and water, the bread - whole wheat or rye probably ground at home,yeast,butter,salt and honey or a little sugar. Look at the ingredients list on a package of instant oatmeal or a loaf of bread today.
On a slightly similar note I could never figure out all these stories on how pasteurization of milk stopped the spread of all these illnesses. Outside of the obvious if your cow is sick with some disease like tb or brucelossis . As everyone that I knew growing up drank raw milk, and my whole family still drinks raw milk with no problems. Then I read this book about milk and the crap they were trying to sell from the swill dairies and such back then. The problem wasn't really raw milk then. Even today with the mechanization of milking, there is no way one can get all the crevices in the machines, the piping, the holding tanks, transfer hoses, transport trucks, processing equipment clean. So I can see the need for pasteurization. But that still doesn't mean that raw milk is dangerous, you just have to use a little logic.
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Has anyone ever heard of this before. I know I haven't, but then I'm not near as knowledgeable as most on this board. A takeover bid for less than 50%.
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Saskatchewan
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can/t believe this crap - on the surface it looks like fairfax resolute are trying to get something for less than its worth and there is the aura of some insider advantage - for sure there is more to the story but that is not sees in the press - do they really want this to go to the supreme court - how much are we talking here/ enough to sully one;s hard earned reputation - come on match the bid you will come out okay - the circulars i get in the mail re this offer are a foot deep
There has always been something more to this as far as I'm concerned, and it has to do with FFH. The legal costs, and time wasted, at some point, maybe we are already there, will have drained more value from the company than just upping the bid.
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What odds would anyone give that they ask if the Supreme court will hear it.
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Shit. This could sucker me in...
Until the 4.7" comes out ;)
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I wonder how long it would take for a significant portion of the transportation sector in north america to convert to CNG. There are already some CNG buses, some people have talked about creating corridors for CNG semi-trucks, and GM and Chrysler have announced some CNG pickup trucks. Honda has had the Civic GX for a while... All marginal for now, but if gasoline prices keep going up and NG prices stay low, there could be a tipping point.
I'm starting to think that in 5-10 years, many more cars and trucks will run on CNG (and there will also be a lot more plug-in hybrids and BEVs). It would be cheaper, cleaner, and in places where there are natural gas lines, people can even refuel at home (still requires to buy a special compressor, but these could go down in price with volume production).
I'm wondering if enough safety features could be incorporated into home filling. Seems like a disaster waiting to happen with the connecting and disconnecting. Can't tell you how many times I've seen cars driving with the extension cords dragging behind in winter also.
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Yeah, it's usually Stubble, Hester, Kraven, et al who generally flame by posts. The original below the belt thing some people on this board used to do (and it might not have been them, I think it was other people) was to claim that I was pumping stocks. When I pointed to all of my previous, highly critical pieces on management at FMMH, SURW, etc which is still on seekingalpha and was also on the web in the form of a website we put up about FMMH, it made no difference. They didn't seem to care at all about the documentary evidence to the contrary of their assertions, and no one ever apologized. So I erased almost all of my posts. As I've said before, if people start making personal attacks, that will be my response. Rather than spending time constantly defending myself from flamers, I am going to stay positive and share ideas when I can. If you track the stuff on seekingalpha,etc, we've had a very solid record of advocacy when it comes to improving the shake shareholders get at companies. You might also be able to find an old powerpoint we presented to FMMH's management. It was pretty hard-hitting stuff. I think my best response is to stay positive, not attack people in kind, and keep finding good ideas. This will be my last post on the thread, unless there is anything else super extreme. As I've said, if Stubble, Dorsia, Hester, Kraven, etc want to short my ideas, it's not a problem, that's what makes a market. The netflix thread is another good example of the personal attack mentality. If you go through that, you'll see that the pattern repeats.
I have no dog in the hunt so to speak either, but all that I notice is you never answered Racemize simple question. Political aspirations possibly . ;)
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Two of my oil service companies reported record results yesterday and the market has punished them the last two days. Both have very low debt and lots of room on their credit facilities.Both under 10x ttm p/e So the only thing I can see is the market was looking for a big jump in dividends. One increased their dividend but still yields very low, the other left theirs alone, although to be fair they just instituted a div last quarter.
http://pureenergy.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=15950&item=124341
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This may have been addressed before, but how long can Resolute keep extending the offer. And each time they extend do they have to get agreement from the locked up shares or do they automatically follow as long as the offer is active.
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Guys, please make sure u tender MERC's offer asap.
Why should one be in a hurry to tender to Merc.
We need to show our preferences loud and clear and asap.
I may be misunderstanding something here. But if neither get 50%, wouldn't we be showing the preference that we think it is worth more than both bids.
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Guys, please make sure u tender MERC's offer asap.
Why should one be in a hurry to tender to Merc.
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For anyone still following pbn they seem to be finally getting production problems under control. Increasing reserves nicely also.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CORRECTION-FROM-SOURCE-ccn-1897738274.html?x=0
Also sold some properties a while back to take a little debt pressure off.
Resolute Forest Products Commences Takeover bid of Fibrek
in General Discussion
Posted
Thanks SD. Try not to laugh, but I've never been in an elevator with a TV screen, benefit or curse of living in the boonies.
Any thoughts on if both are waiting to see were the ppa comes in before a final push. The suspicious side of me thinks that this should be resolved already and someone is delaying it.