shamelesscloner
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Posts posted by shamelesscloner
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Where are you parking cash as you wait for investment opportunities? I'd like to be getting 4-5% yields on cash and curious what folks have found! TIA
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I'd love to see the historical performance of Baupost to date if anyone has access to that info?
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Naspers (NPSNY)
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KVSA at $10.02... work your magic Vinod!
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BABA... Charlie gave me the nudge I needed
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In IBKR the units are sometimes listed as, for example, FVIV U, KAHC U
He must not be dealing with IB if someone is actually telling him something ;)
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Bought Clover Corp, Jungfraubahn Holding and a small slice of Dominos in the last week. All around 3 pct. And 9 pct in BTI.
This is the Clover Corp in AU that refines and sells natural oils?
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CURI: added around $15 levels. Curiosity stream is the infotainment streaming vehicle of John Hendricks, the founder of Discovery. He owns 40%+ of the stock and has been a buyer in each cap raise. Current T12m revenue runrate is $40m and they should double that in the next year (management aims a 10x in 5 years). The service is priced at ~$20/year (very good value...subscribe if you haven't) and has nearly 10x+ as much documentary content as Netflix (the content library itself is worth $1.3b+ according to management comments vs a current market cap that is half of that). Compared to traditional TV dramas which cost ~$8-10m/hour to make, infotainment content can be made much much cheaper at $200-300K/hour. So like for like, it has more compelling economics than other streamers once it establishes itself as a must have option. Looking ahead they could have 80m+ subs in a few years generating $40/yr+ in ARPU for a $3b+ revenue run-rate and this business could be worth 10-20x of what it is worth now. John Hendricks is very widely connected in the Content/Cable/CTV industry as an OG legend and is thus rapidly getting access to the service everywhere in the world.
Start an investment ideas thread? Have you seen any more comprehensive write-ups from fund managers? I'm intrigued.
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I think I'm going to start an ESG fund that only invest in miners of rare earth metals. The ESG score will be off the charts.
Off the charts in which direction? ;)
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Am going through the book and starting my usual Sunday game planning for the week ahead. Figured I'd list some of the SPAC holdings here to 1) see if anyone else has thoughts on these, 2) help others interested get a handle on some names, and 3) give examples of some of the things discussed earlier in the thread.
ACEVU, ACICU, CGROU, CFACU, CFIIU, ETACU, FUSEU, SRACU, FSRVU, FTIVU, LATNU, FRXU, LSAQ, SPNVU, CAPAU, IGACU, PTICU, SRSAU, OACBU
As requested! The updated list.
ACEVU- +43% sold on announcement 2/19
ACICU- +68% sold on announcement 2/10
CGROU- +38% sold on announcement 12/07
CFACU- +46% sold on announcement 2/12
CFIIU- +12% sold on announcement 12/1
ETACU- still hold
FUSEU- +31% sold on announcement 2/12
SRACU- +88% sold after announcement
FSRVU- +64% sold on announcement 1/12
FTIVU- +31% sold on announcement 1/25
LATNU- still hold
FRXU- +22% sold on announcement 2/10
LSAQ- still hold
SPNVU- +19% sold, broke 12 no news
CAPAU- +137% sold on announcement 2/18
IGACU- sold most around 12 on speculation pop, but still hold some
PTICU- still hold
SRSAU- still hold
OACBU- still hold
new adds: FLACU, LWACU, FOXWU, BIOTU, SPGSU, IIIIU
I think if anything based on dates and pops one can figure out where the top was, but the same could be said for many stocks if you use the recent chart as a marker. You could raise the issue on timing the trade as a risk, but I generally just keep it simple; sell on the day of the announcement, sell if it trades at too much of a premium to cash, sell if a real investment comes along and you need the capital. I view cash as garbage and with the money printers on full blast and showing now signs of stopping, I view these, especially now around $10 as a much better placeholder....even in some cases they are purely margined so add a 1% annual carry to the underwritten capital at risk.
Then again Id also point out that Ive been doing this for years and not just something I started when it became popular 10 months ago so my mentality is different. But the idea of $10(floor), $9.50(doomsday), upside-multiples of the downside, has always sounded pretty good to me. It isnt/wasnt uncommon for these to trade high 10s or low 11s 8-12 months after IPO, even pre mania. I'm also OK just flip flop trading for 2-3%. To each their own though.
Epic, thanks Gregmal! Is price the only differentiator for you on these new adds? In other words, would you buy the cheapest first?
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@shamelesscloner I recall Greg mentioning that it was high 8s/low 9s in the other thread.
I got out of most of my SPACs since the risk/reward is no longer attractive. The whole idea of investing in SPACs is so that
(i) You can have a quasi cash instrument with upside optionality to park your cash when there is nothing cheap to invest in
(ii) You have the ability to switch it out at a small gain/close to no loss and pick up quality businesses on the cheap when the market reverse.
Why is anyone investing in SPACs now when your view is that there would be bargains down the road?
Because I have no idea when those bargains might be available. Buying into SPACs now feels like a nice contrarian bet ;)
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AVAN at $10.05
AVAN at 10
Braggart ;)
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It's a SPAC party!
Bought some AVAN and EQC, and maybe some BTNB if it comes down some more.
Had already a small stake in OACB and I'm down 5%.
You mean EQD?
Has anyone studied how far SPACs dropped during the global financial crisis (2008)?
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AVAN at $10.05
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There are a dozen or so recent SPAC IPOs trading at or below $10/unit right now. Seems like buying these and selling the warrants and shares separately when they detach in ~2 months is free money and beats holding cash in a savings account. What am I missing?
Just updated my SPAC wish list now, and I like what I see
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Shinoken 1105 JPY
how you buying Shinoken ? This is not listed in US
Through Interactive Brokers with trading permission for Japan. I've heard it's also available through Fidelity as ADR but have not confirmed.
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Shinoken 1105 JPY
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The Muger DJC Q&A was great, wish he would have rambled more but The questions asked what exactly what I would’ve wanted to ask Munger.
SPACs got annihilated last week. Almost everything, even with deal announcements is back to near NAV. I think at this point it is a great value when you add the arbitrage put protection and call incentive.
There are quite a lot of value investing legends involved:
SPACs - Howard Marks, John Malone, Bernardo from 3G, Howard Marks all have SPACs. Also Bill Ackman
Investments - Seth Klarman has investments in a few SPACs. I had to check that twice when I read this but Seth also just did a PIPE in Reid Hoffman’s SPAC that merged with an eVTOL Joby with 4.6B EV valuation. He also owns shares in addition to the PIPE. I always thought Seth Klarman was doing this as arbitrage. But with the PIPE investment They’re locked in for five years. And by summer this year, the $10 floor arbitrage becomes $0.
Why is Seth Klarman investing in flying cars?
Don't forget Sam Zell with EQD. It's a fascinating space at the moment.
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Someone who tweeted about buying GME calls is no Buffett. That's why the comparison is laughable on face value, it's not because of "emotional baggage".
This
This play, which he only held for 1 day, was a 5x and more importantly helped him build goodwill with the next generation of investors. These are the investors who will be buying his holding company when it goes public. It was a smart business move that communicated to retail investors "I'm on your side."
Really? Even Chamath wasn't thinking that far ahead or communicating that.
Either he'll disappear 10 years from now or he'll be huge. There's no middle ground here with him. We've seen these shows before...they go one way or the other. Cheers!
Chamath literally asked his Twitter followers what he should buy next, and then plowed $100K into GME calls based on their feedback.
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Took a position earlier in the day on Friday, with $LESL (Leslie's) - It is the largest pool maintenance (Supplies, Service & Repair) company in the country and also happens to have the largest footprint in US-TX. I see more than one upside potential here, because in the next coming days, weeks, months. plentiful of their expertise will be needed, requiring all three offerings; supplies, services and repairs.
Value at play: the current and unprecedented winter storm had caused severe damages to homeowners pools because these pools are kept year round open and aren't winterized (meaning they are subject to deepened damages in the current weather conditions in Texas) which is going to essentially create overwhelming demand for all pool owners. Things are expected to bounce back to Texan like temperatures starting next week, and as the ice thaws, so does the need to asses and repair... One way or another, it's all upsides because March is the pool opening season in Texas too.
Interesting idea! Here's my brother in Fort Worth taking advantage of his new ice bath...
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Plug Power (PLUG).
It's even cheaper since I got in a few days ago, has dropped like 15% so now it's only 87x EV/sales, and 38x book value, and the laws of physics still seem to be against the idea that hydrogen fuel cells will ever be competitive with batteries for most applications.
Oh, and what I bought was 2021 $10 Puts.
I thought you might like that one ;)
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Lumen (LUMN)
Can you share any compelling writeups that you've come across?
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bonsai partners has a pretty ballsy concentrated portfolio.
He also did a stellar write up on micron.
Yes I very much appreciated that MU writeup. A 65% stake in a company called Redbubble... that's ominous
Where are you getting high yields on cash?
in General Discussion
Posted
Thanks for that info! What are the risks of buying treasury bills through Fidelity? I presume these funds are FDIC insured up to $250K if Fidelity goes under? What has happened to short term treasuries in the past with an inverted yield curve?