COBFInfinity

Tim Howard's goals are not the same as the rest of us here, so I'm not particularly interested in what he would LIKE to happen. I understand that it may happen.

I don't know who MTH is, but he/she is counting on SCOTUS a lot more than I am. I would much rather have a decent settlement now than shoot for the moon with SCOTUS and risk coming away with nothing.

When you talk of settlement, are you just talking of Collins plaintiffs or are we still looking at a global settlement which was the expectation all along? Is it realistic to get a global settlement before December 9 just based on how many parties are involved and the time needed to hammer that, not even accounting for the possibility that some plaintiffs might be willing to gamble on the courts at this point?

The problem with that idea is that Mr. Market will probably reduce your position for you before you get a chance.

As a reminder, it's best to keep your political opinions out of this discussion. With people on the right and left both claiming 100% certainty about their team winning - guess what? Someone is wrong. The rest of us in the real world know that there is uncertainty as to what happens. With the GSE's, it obviously does matter who wins POTUS and it makes sense to consider the different paths the GSE's will take based on that fork in the road. But it is not helpful for people to chime in with, "Well, I know Mr. XYZ is going to win", implying that we should not factor any uncertainty into this investment.

I assume they have changed their minds since then, but no more than a month ago ACG Analytics had been predicting the capital rule would be finalized before the election. So yet another delay. The idea that if Trump loses, Treasury and FHFA are going to settle the lawsuits before SCOTUS hearing and wrap everything up in our favor with PSPA amendment and consent decree by mid-January looks less and less likely. Theoretically, it can be done, but the reality is nothing has been achieved in a timely manner throughout this process. I've been in the junior preferreds for 6 years and I'm not going to throw in the towel now when they are still at 30% of par, but I have to admit I'm as worried about the outcome now than I have been at any other time. With all the steps that Calabria has made in the right direction, nothing of any permanence has truly been accomplished. If the NWS hasn't been written down by early December and the case goes to SCOTUS, there is a real possibility that we come out of this with nothing.

Charles De Vaulx Fund Raises $1.7B! created on: August 27, 2009, So you re-started an 11-year old, 1-comment discussion instead of starting a new one? Bad etiquette. Creates confusion.

Is this thread wrong? It sounds like Charles de Lardemelle is the one with the new fund, not de Vaulx.

That obviously depends on when you bought and at what price. There are people who bought in mid-2014, before Lamberth's terrible decision, that are still losing money. There are those, like me, who bought a few months later at 1/3 the price and are doing just fine. Alas, I added last September after the en banc decision and those shares are down about 30%. Always need to look forward, though, so the issue is not what your performance has been, but what you think it will be. It sure seems that Calabria wants to end the conservatorships, but it would appear that until the NWS is officially ended, Mr. Market no longer has much confidence in this story. Can't blame anyone who has lost faith after the many delays and inability to get final justice from the courts.

Bloomberg link doesn't work. What is the fund?

I really don't understand why someone would choose FNMAP or the other low variable rate issues at this point. FNMAP's coupon, if turned on, would be 0.06% right now! You can buy a wide variety of Fannie and Freddie preferreds with coupons of at least 4.5% for a similar price as FNMAP. Until recently, there was at least a noticeable discount for those low coupon issues, but that's mostly gone right now. It would clearly be counterproductive in the long run for these preferred issues to be converted to common at anything close to par. I guess we'll eventually see whether the urgency to meet the capital requirements outweighs what is favorable for long-term company finances.