[Have We Hit The Top?]

To add to the above, this is not the first time I have seen a surcharge disappear in the last week. 

[Have We Hit The Top?]

On 5/14/2022 at 1:25 PM, Gregmal said:

Do people really think inflation is going to continue at 8% for the next several years? Its funny to me how last year there were like 2-3 people here tops who said this would happen, everyone else was in the transitory, camp. Now, everyone thinks its 5-10% a year in perpetuity. I guess thats why markets move and sentiment is powerful. But again, most of this "inflation", is fixable. So yea, tech stock based comp will blow for a few years. But the idea that markets need to price in 5%+ inflation OFF OF the already elevated base, seems to a little ridiculous to me. 

 

Similar to the housing market, the labor market is so tight that people ARE getting meaningful raises simply due to supply/demand imbalances. We all know the government lies about inflation. But again, theyre handling it right now, exceptionally well. Dining, travel, home improvement. AT THESE PRICES. So we can talk generally about "oh inflation"...great. Plug in x% inflation in perpetuity and get a crazy bearish picture. Tell me how stupid shit like 2x4s, automobiles, desktop computers, etc....are going to go parabolic on prices for the next half decade? I'd take the other side of that bet all day. Energy and housing will take time, but Im pretty certain policies will start shifting either soon, or starting in November to be more favorable on that front too. It just seems like we have big and popular story, and people are getting carried away with applying it to the future. 

We buy about 100k per year in traffic paint. Last year there were some shortages due to lack of resins available from the cold weather in Texas. Prices went crazy if you could get it. We went from paying 17 bucks a gallon to being happy to pay 30. I explained the situation to my customers and have been adjusting prices upward as needed. 
 

The past couple years I have been making weekly calls to Sherwin Williams and ppg trying to get supply at any price.

 

guess what, I got a call from ppg this week asking if I would need any paint this month. “Oh yes I would, how much by the way?”

 

The rep tells me I can have as much as I need delivered for 19 a gallon! I guess it was transitory after all! I think gregmal is not far off on his call. 

[Have We Hit The Top?]

I think Gregmal does have a blind spot just like anyone who is young and hard working probably does. He is thinking if I can do it anyone can. The sad fact is he is partially right but a lot of people just didn't get taught this early in life.

 

I have employees in their 20's complaining about going to work in the rain today. What the fuck, its literally water, suck it up. These guys will never make it because they lack the drive. I shed no tears for these lazy bastards who just want to play fortnight today.

 

However before you say i'm just as blind as gregmal. My aunt is in her late 60's and is not altogether smart, sorry aunti. She is getting killed by inflation and frankly probably is lucky to have the job she has. She will not be using this market to improve her lot in life. She will just be a hell of a lot poorer next year.

 

I think there is a pretty sizable population that is going to be getting crunched by this and will not have the ability to take advantage of it. Much bigger than any of us probably can estimate. Maybe their parents didn't instill the drive in them, maybe they are not too bright maybe they have a physical impediment that dont let them make 40 bucks an hour painting.

 

In my mind, we have some horrendous leadership and this is being caused by them and their agendas, they dont care about the people who are getting hurt because they are the types who are truly blind.

Most politicians are pure scum whether they intend to be or not. And i dont know what type is worse!

 

[Would you sell your homes?]

Wow Pupil That tree is worth a brag alone. If its a Japanese maple its may be worth 10k alone, knowing the house we bought in 2020 is our forever home I spent close to 1k for an Autumn Moon and Crimson queen Japonicus to grow into natural masterpieces we can appreciate for decades. 

.Love the white Muskoka chairs too. 

 

 

[Would you sell your homes?]

I would not consider it at all, too much transactional costs. I own a decent brick home on 5 acres of hardwood forest 30 minutes from Toronto. This is my inflation hedge, my firewood supply, a roof over our heads and I run my business out of it. I hold a largish mortgage with 3 years until renewal. Wish it was longer term now that inflation is driving the Canadian 5 year up.

 

Even if I knew of a 40 % drawdown on the horizon I dont think i would sell. Fuck it and ride the wave, plus I hate moving.

[the death of the urban office building]

Sorry I should have said i'm speaking to downtown office stuff specifically. Suburban office parks are definitely hurting though. Maybe the campus style tech or R&D facilities are still busy but the bland office parks are going to find that the space is just not worth the money or they dont need as much space as expected. 

 

 

 

 

[the death of the urban office building]

My take is that office is going the way of AMC. In that I mean to say that the original idea is fading fast( watching movies or shuffling paper) What is more likely is that the majority of the sq footage gets changed into something else. The survivors will be the best space that encourages people to want to go for the "feel" Allied properties in Toronto is a great example. These are former warehouses turned into exciting event space / office environments that make you feel good, essentially the opposite of a cubicle farm. 

 

Im 37  when I was younger it was all about downtown fancy shit, now its farm weddings and brewing our own beer. Times change and people change but I sure as hell wouldn't want to go into a high-rise office ( corner penthouse excluded of course )