Jaygo
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Posts posted by Jaygo
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Teck resources This thing gets murdered then 10x’s every crisis. Seems like a terrible long term holding but swings like crazy so great for a trade.
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On 5/2/2024 at 9:56 AM, Santayana said:
Right, but arguing whether the inflation exists, or whether it's inherently bad are two different things. Maybe no one is *entitled* to eat out, but if they're used to doing it and it's effectively taken away from them, they're going to be disgruntled about it and be looking for someone to blame.
Food costs rising is more related to carbon taxes, food regulation, subsidies and transportation. North America should be able to produce everything in abundance, imo the government plays a larger role in the costs rising than labour cost just trying to keep up.
How bout JD or Cummins makes some cheaper tractors ( manufacturing gets in nuts squeezed with regulation and unions)
how bout some cheaper fuel for them tractors ( global warming bs carbon taxes )
How bout we grow food for food ( na lets make fuel out of it too then stop a pipeline from canada, oil is dirty )
Lots more reasons but american ingenuity can surpass any challenge but themselves.
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8 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
Does valuation enter into your process or just if it will still be here in 50 years?Of course it does but KO is not at a crazy valuation. Also KO is just an example. KO has not done that great for BRK but he has gotten his investment back multiple times just in dividends and likely will another 100x over the next 50 years.
I actually look at company longevity as a really good barometer for valuation. If there was no stock market and we were buying companies to hold would you buy one that is fickle or would you buy one that is going to be passed to your grandchildren. The one that was a proven long term winner would possibly demand a higher valuation.
I remember my uncle telling me if my parents had bought me $1000 worth of Proctor and gamble instead of diapers on my birthday in 1984 I would be getting $3000 a year from it today ( this was 10 years ago). PG has done pretty well but time has been the biggest contributor. I guess that is just burned into my psyche
I know it seem unsophisticated but I think it is a big factor in performance. Otherwise we need to trade in and out to get performance.
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I lean with Spooky here. Fairfax does not have the quality investments that BRK did at the time. Those with more knowledge could pair them like for like in a balance sheet standoff but a Greek bank will not ever compare to a successful global credit card issuer, Recipe corp is not see's or a dairy queen, Maybe Bauer could be a see's. Coke is a one in a lifetime brand who is sold in every country globally, nowhere in FFH lurks a similar comparison to KO. in 95 they had a few billion in Gillett and Cap cities at the time too. Fairfax does not have the quality global compounders and I know because these (AMEX, KO, ABC, Wells, GILLETTE) were known compounders back then too and they kept on compounding up to today so you can't just say "wait and see" what FFH does.
The interesting thing is in the 90's BRK was still buying smallish furniture and jewelry companies that probably never moved the needle. Maybe Fairfax is still there working around the edges with smaller stuff like the sporting life and Recipe instead of Munger like compounders. Now If they spring up and buy a Hershey, Starbucks, or a Visa maybe that could change the tune. (not investment advice lol)
FFH is kind of where I am today. I get way more energy and excitement from buying what ifs that could make me rich than Buffett was buying sure things that would make him rich slowly.
Why dont I buy KO today? its too boring. WIll KO be here in 50 years? yep! Will the quirky steel tank company or the ladies fashion retailer be here? maybe, maybe not, but oh man if they are i'm going to be so damn rich!
GO LEAFS GO
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Great post Viking. Most of those things are still present. I just feel like magic was the system and aside from being huge is still very much in place.
will the worlds greatest investor be at the helm, it’s unlikely but that could change and they could also shrink the equity to limit the strain on the next guy.
I also think that the amount of potential efficiencies in the operating businesses must be massive and ripe for a bit of screw turning or outright divestment.
The complaint about the cash is nuts. I think their interest income alone puts them in the fortune 50 ( this may be totally wrong but I read that )
i’m in the camp of good returns with brk for the foreseeable future.
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On 4/30/2024 at 4:35 PM, hardcorevalue said:
emails are landing but not being answered, i keep writing to him though lol
Try actual mail addressed to him handwritten on a Manila envelope. No stamps or stickers that look corporate. Just you to him.
I’ve got past many gatekeepers this way and landed some huge fish that otherwise their secretaries would quickly delete an email.
I've gotten calls from some major real estate owners and have jaw dropped when they said who they were. Snail mail for the win imo.
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7 hours ago, SafetyinNumbers said:
The snowball could get huge quickly which should probably be expected to happen easier in Canada vs Omaha from the same starting point.
Just curious on why that could be easier this side of the border. Valuation? Less scrutiny?
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1 hour ago, Sweet said:
People were different then, and mostly in a good way. The side of my family that all went to war grew up in what would be considered extreme poverty by modern standards.
We tend to think America and Europe have been rich developed countries for many years, but I’m talking no running water, no electricity, no telephone, the toilet was a bucket buried in the garden every few days, and you grew a lot of your own food. Meals were nearly always break or potatoes, milk and eggs. That was rural UK early 1900s.
It’s amazing just how crazy the living standards are now, how technology has improved our lives, and how much better we all have it and yet the levels of entitlement and complaining are off the charts.
There is a saying that hard times create strong men and good times create weak men. I think there is something to that. I’m not nearly as strong as the WW2 generation was and I’ve had it so much better than they did. God love them.
Ill add to the above misery of the early 1900's that in 1916 you would have lost more lives in one day or week at verdun than the entire Russian- Ukraine war.
Life today seems sad and fucked up sometimes but anyone with a notion of history must realize that almost everything is much better today for the populace, even war.
I hate war btw and I think it is going to be my most difficult conversation with my children, how to explain to their beautiful innocent faces that some people do horrible things to each other.
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Both cn and cp released flat to down RTM quarters, Brk mentioned slow rail traffic in the past 6 months.
Pretty sure we are not booming. As far as I can tell the economy is slowing due to to high rates but still moving due to government largess. I think we are one rate cut from a boom to fill pent up demand and people who are on the fence just want to know what way to jump. People in their 20's just want to have a taste of the good life that comes from real capitalism not this dog and pony show we have.
If they keep dicking around with China and rates we could see outright recession. Id say drop rates to 3, let the Chinese build are shit for us cheaper than we can, Adam Smith style and we can just focus on spending.
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lol. If anyone is surprised by these numbers they are blind. When every single railroad is shrinking volumes ya know something ain’t right. Wages and employment are next.
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Comparing the west and china and who is the baddie is really stupid. Both have done bad things but i can't see how the usa has any moral ground to shout from lately. They are the merchants of death of late.
And the things we do today are more of a reflection on who we are than what our parents or grandparents did. Spain of the 1500's were literally evil monsters with no respect for life or property, today they are one of the most peaceful peoples on the planet. What is ongoing in China today is concerning and a reflection on the ruling party, what is happening globally by the USA is concerning and a reflection on the ruling party.
Comparing the economic systems is more interesting and they seem to be moving from both extremes to the centre.
The USA is taking a lot of freedoms from its populace in the name of "security" and also practicing a semi capitalist economy, bailouts, tariffs, subsidies and government deficits is not exactly free market. China is moving the opposite and opening up their markets and allowing more capitalistic ideas.
Only time will tell who and where is better.
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That’s an awesome tidbit of history. both our connections are to
Argentina is on our places to travel list this year but still unsure.
The wager. It’s a great book about a very interesting time. Historical fact or fiction is by far my favorite genre. I love the contrast to our own lives, these guys are living in a lice and rat infested hull below the waterline for years and I’m upset when that sob at Starbucks doesn’t put the lid on my latte tight enough. I could have been slightly hurt by that moderately hot beverage damn it !!!
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8 hours ago, Gamecock-YT said:
Must be a slow news day, got to love the 24 hour news cycle. If you want to read up on something that matters that isn’t getting any publicity anywhere look up the recent developments in Myanmar. More productive use of your time than caring about college kids protesting.
Where are most people relying on for news, I feel like i'm in some over bias shelter where all my news seems like shitty AI driven or overly political stuff. If a guy just wanted facts on a situation where would he look.
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I’ll start with my best wishes for the both of you, your situation is not easy and will get very tough to be sure. For that reason I would go with cash equivalents also.
for once in long time she can get a decent return around 4.7 pre tax with very little risk. I think you should consider the psychological problems if the market slowly looses air here and is down 20 percent by the time she passes away.
you may be looked to as the person who lost grandmas money ( we know you were just looking out for her btw) I just don’t see the value in taking any risk at that age. 600k is a lot but also a little and I think 4 and change is damn good to sit by her side and say “grandma everything is going to be ok.”
I saw my dad needlessly lose sleep up to the day he died over some completely terrible investments for a terminal man of 70 through royal bank of Canada dogshit advisors. I don’t want that for her or you, i believe when you get old you want safe and secure and don’t care about making money you will never see.
My two cents and hope I don’t overstep.
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23 minutes ago, valueventures said:
Are you considering a position? I started one earlier this year - missed some of the run-up, but captured some as well.
Chris was just featured on Yet Another Value Podcast.
I originally invested in 2021, after I learned about it on twitter and did some work for a small position. Since then have done some more work to get more comfortable. Sitting at about a 3% position. I like it but have my reservations as well.
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43 minutes ago, thowed said:
As someone 'across the pond' in the UK, I'm very grateful to all of you, esp. @dr.malone for these detailed notes & presentations.
Don't suppose any of you guys were the ones who presented Terravest? That and FFH have been my main purchases in the last 12 months.
It was Chris waller of plural investing. It was a really good presentation. I don’t think it was filmed but he has been on a few pods lately with the same information. I think the links are in the Terravest thread.
He and I discussed further at the agm and he has some really in depth knowledge of Terravest.
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2 minutes ago, Sweet said:
what’s the point of saving money, isn’t it better to enjoy it’
I find a lot of enjoyment out of not worrying about money.
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I’m finding more and more young people are taking unnecessarily big risks for that big score because they feel the worlds passing them by.
It’s shocking how risk averse they become when discussing simple strategies like a small levered investment in an boring idea but they have no problem putting 50% of their money into some shit coin or stock they saw on Twitter.
I think in hindsight if I had known how much debt capacity I would have today I would have taken a little more risk in my 20’s.
it’s funny how the lessons we learn as we age become less and less useful as we learn them. I think there’s a rod Stuart song about it.
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lol I have no idea. I’m thinking I don’t know how to spell. Can’t put this one on spell check unfortunately! Just a foggy mind.
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6 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Do you not think though that either you are working for money or money is working for you is what separates those with freedom from those who don’t? The system is designed to benefit, dare I say, even serve the haves. The only real way to break the cycle is to try to participate in the mechanisms through which the haves benefit. Which is primarily investment in business, owning the resources, avoiding unnecessary taxation. Nobody is retiring early getting 5-6% pre tax on their money. And that 5-6% has only been recent. Imagine trying to get ahead with 2-3% annually? The compounding magic is real. The mortgage pay down magic is real. You just gotta let it work.
Bingo. I’m not Austin Mathews so I’m not making the kind of money he is. He can do lots of dumb shit with his money because lots more is coming.
But for normal folks we have to play the game that is being played not the one we want to play. I personally feel that reasonable dept financed asset purchases is the only way to get ahead. Would I rather make 15 mil a year and not worry about this shit? Yes!
I am in the position that if I work and invest what I can ( say 30k a year) I will live a decent life with some good security as I age, I personally feel that if I want to have an excess above this level I need to accelerate the flywheel by the use of dept.
so far so good. I can borrow at 6 and expect 10 through something like brk. Safe if done right.
the 6 is tax deductible yearly and the 10 is cap gains when I decide to unwind the game. I don’t like the game but I understand it is the way it is.
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25 minutes ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
This system is designed such that people trade time/expertise for money and then the government purposely devalues that money so that they're forced to take risk of loss just to run in place for the time/expertise already delivered.
It is theft, it is immoral, and it is absurd to suggest that this is a foundational teaching that should be put forth in schools.
If you want to start calling the USD a "transaction" vehicle, then be my guest. But everyone else currently calls it money, and that word implies something is a means of exchange, a store of value, AND a unit of account. Otherwise, we're all just bartering collectibles and back to the days pre-gold.
I kind of agree if I look at it only from my point of view. It is theft in a way. But in another way it’s a difficult job to keep all the money from floating to the top of the pyramid in our system.
so if the actual money or dollar had the ability to hold its value or even increase in value the money would stay at the top of the pyramid and would not be distributed downward unless through some other means that I’m sure you or I would not like.
Let’s say in the case of 0 inflation I have 10 million dollars and I feel that if I spend exactly 200,000 a year my money will see me through to the end. It will sit under my mattress except for that yearly 200,000. Won’t the money supply be restricted in that case.? Isn’t this the reason gold is not used any more because there is not enough to do commerce with?
See the $100 is not money. It is just a method of transaction in the real world. Buy gold and sit on it if you feel like you want to hold real value.
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17 hours ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
This simply isn't true. Just like I don't put every dollar into bonds/CDs/etc because 'they'll be worth more tomorrow" and still actually spend money each and every day.
At some point you feel sufficiently comfortable with your level of savings, and have desires to be met that you'll spend for. I think you can argue people will be more discerning with their spending - but it's not like people stop wanting things.
Inflation distorts this picture and encourages people to spend more and more money, take more and more risk to earn returns, and hoard assets all because we can't simply hold cash and have it retain the value we put into earning it...
And then when wages/etc aren't benchmarked to that inflation - it means a % of the population is falling behind daily. If you create a system that does that, it's not surprising poverty and homeless have become rampant issues in major cities that have experienced high inflation over the last ~3-4 years.
Going to have to disagree here. In the pre inflation eras as in pre Industrial Revolution poverty and homelessness was less noticeable because pretty much everyone was destitute. Look at the era of Charles dickens or New York of the 1800s. Most were poor with a few very rich.
Today many people are falling behind but many are doing great as well and even the ones who are falling behind are still having better lifestyles than before.
I know some poorish people and they still have cell phones and a roof over their heads. It’s not ideal but they are also not digging through the trash for food. The one who are forced to do that are most likely suffering from a trauma that has nothing to do with 5% inflation.
A 100 dollar bill is not a store of value. It is a transaction vehicle. If you want wealth you have to take risks and put that money to good use by moving it around the economy. If the 100 bill was 105 next year you would see a slowing of the economy and more importantly a slowing of progress because less risks would be taken.
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1 hour ago, Eldad said:
For sure. But one side has the whole government protecting and working to further its interests. RFK Jr. said it best, Biden and his team are the real threat to democracy.
Trump is not fit to be President. But neither is Biden and the things the Dem machine is doing are actually harming our democracy.
The very idea of a sitting president who is mentally degraded yet is being propped up in a weekend at Bernie’s like situation tells me democracy is in question with the current admin.
Sure Biden has his fire and brimstone speeches on a good day but some times he has major mental issues front and centre that should be justification for him to step aside. His handlers do not want it and the American people are the victims of a sham.
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18 minutes ago, ValueArb said:
Inflating away debt might be the more likely solution, but its not any better than defaulting on it. It will drive borrowing costs through the roof for everyone, and make it far harder to borrow in the future even if inflation declines as inflationary expectations will remain high for generations (fool me once, etc).
It will bleed many people who don't have inflation indexed businesses. Any business that requires forward contracts will take massive losses and have a difficult time using them in the future. Any workers that don't have rapid inflation adjustments will end up with lower standards of living.
Most specifically, investors will see their real capital gains tax rates sky-rocket as their reported gains will be far higher than their inflation adjusted gains. For example, assume inflation is 14% annualized for 5 years, halving buying power. Lets say you bought $100k in stocks at the start of that period, and sold them at end of it for $300k, which appears to be a 25% annualized return. But you owe 25% in federal capital gains plus state income taxes, or $50k, leaving you with $250k. But the buying power of $250k is now only $125k, so your real after tax economic profits is $25k, or less than 5% annualized.
So will you be anxious to invest in stocks again? Maybe, you might not have a choice as what will offer a better return? Or maybe you'll invest overseas in a country with low inflation. Certainly foreign investors are going to think twice about investing in the US, so over time inflation will bleed us of capital which drives productivity gains. Go back and read up about the 1970s and how awful investing and the economy was when we dealt with high rates of inflation.
Yeah but this is nothing new. Currency debasement is not some new idea. Its the way the monetary system works. If my money was going to be worth more tomorrow i wouldn't spend it today and our economy would stop functioning.
Inflation of the 70s was a supply shock as well as a major war. We may repeat that but there is no guarantee imo.
And to think that people may not invest in America again after some Financial mess is crazy. How many wars has germany started and lost and destroyed itself only to be the strongest economy in europe again in the last 100 years. People go where the getting is good and the getting is good in North America and likely will be for a while. Inflation is part of that. Japan has been dead money for 30 years at a time of no inflation so your argument is not accurate.
Buffett/Berkshire - general news
in Berkshire Hathaway
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Tourmaline would be great asset for them. Nat gas to run all those power plants. Mike would be a great fit in the culture imo
could also be something like td, or a pipeline too. Maybe they buy tmx from the gov.