montizzle
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Posts posted by montizzle
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Very easy to play this. Just buy Alimentation Couche Tard.
Yeah I've been looking into this one. One of the concerns I have with it and am trying to learn more about is how much WFH will affect it. Their earnings calls touched briefly on volumes being down on products typically bought on the morning commute. How much of that volume will come back? Will consumers be more likely to stop in if they switch to a blended work schedule (perhaps that gas station snack is a novelty when you pass it once a week?).
It's definitely a time will tell scenario, I don't think anyone can say much about WFH with certainty yet
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The future of convenience stores is an interesting topic that intersects a few major cultural shifts in the post covid world. I've been thinking about this topic a lot for the past couple months, so I'll try to break it down by topic here. Would love to hear everyone else's opinions, as every family member I've tried to corner into this discussion has managed to escape.
Electric vehicles
Throwing away the valuation arguments, I don't think anyone disagrees that our future is going to be one where electric cars are the majority. Those cars are going to need power stations outside of one's home. The obvious solution currently seems like installing quick charge stations at gas stations. To my knowledge however, the technology to fully charge as quickly as a full tank of gas is far away. Do the convenience stores attached to gas stations therefore need to adapt by luring in customers for a longer experience? How would this be done, service based (charge and a haircut? shoeshine?) or do they develop more enjoyable lounge type atmospheres where customers can enjoy a cup of coffee? Will customers ever want to spend time at gas stations? If they really don't want to (I don't think they will), will they technology develop instead for replaceable batteries?
Commercial real estate
Some are predicting covid to be the catalyst that finally kills off Malls and shopping centres in favour of online shopping. If that's the case, will those malls (at least partially) convert to distribution centres? It seems plausible, Malls are generally located near population centres and close to major transportation routes . Convenience stores are similarly strategically located, on a more localized scale. Could they become a sort of secondary distribution centre, bringing orders to the final last mile step of their journey? Partnerships with shipping companies and large convenience store chains seem likely to me
DoorDash/SkiptheDishes/Ubereats influence
All of these delivery companies have seen an explosion in use thanks to the pandemic. Some convenience store chains include their products on this service, allowing customers to order say a bag of chips delivery from their phone for a small premium. It's unclear how many customers are paying the premium for convenience vs. for preventing sickness. It'll be interesting to see how sticky this customer base is post-covid.
Cash free society
Before the pandemic cash was becoming an increasingly uncommon payment method. Now that covid has required essentially all businesses to create cash free payment methods, cash seems to be nearly obsolete. Many independent convenience stores would benefit greatly from cash payments for tax reasons. Will this lead to increased pressure on independents, and accelerate consolidation by big chains? I'll admit, this last one's a bit of a stretch, however I do think that the industry is going to consolidate greatly. Big chains by virtue of their size can make the major changes in operations and outside partnerships easier than small mom and pops.
In summary, I think major changes are on the horizon for convenience stores, and I'm surprised this isn't talked about more. Personally, I don't see how the mom and pops will be able to compete. Convenience stores don't sell the quality products that help insulate mom and pop restaurants from large chains. It may be just a matter of time before independent convenience stores go the way of independent grocers
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The amount of retail investors gambling on stock options and equities. It seems like a large chunk of sports gamblers have switched to betting on the markets during the pandemic. Driven by no-fee apps and pandemic relief programs. The YOY numbers quoted in the following CNBC article are significant:
Assuming that this trend continues on, what's the best play on this, the exchanges? NDAQ, ICE, X.To etc?
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Are we really doing crypto coin talk here?
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Spartan - these are the real life tragedies that represent "the other side of the coin" - of excessive/unneeded lockdown.
Not sure I can compare thousands of deaths to a guy not affording his benz as the same scale of tragedy
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"...they're all opting for a lump sum payment of the deferral at the end of their term."
haven't read the bill yet. does it require forbearance amounts to be paid as lump sum at end of mortgage term (ie added to final payment)?
I believe that is how it is structured yeah
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If you think house prices are high where you live in the US try prices in Vancouver or Toronto north of the border. Canada missed the housing crash the US
Having said all that the market has absorbed every punch thrown at it the last 20 years. Free money (rock bottom interest rates) will help. But will that be enough this time?
This is the question keeping me up at night these days. Every homeowner I know is deferring their mortgage at the moment. I'm not sure if it's the only option available, but they're all opting for a lump sum payment of the deferral at the end of their term. Theres no real plans in place though to be able to actually save up this lump sum. It seems everyone plans to just go back to living paycheque to paycheque and hope the money saves itself? Given how great us Canadians as a whole have been at saving and staying out of debt (lol), I don't see a situation where a big portion of these mortgages don't default.
On the flip side, every non-homeowner I know is salivating at the thought of being able to actually afford a house. These are people in their late twentys with decent jobs. Owning a house in the GTA is the holy grail for them, and now they think it may be a real possibility.
No clue how this will turn out.
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i am not sure if that has been stated before, but i mention it anyways. Russia's oil industry has a ruble-based cost structure whereas Saudi's oil industry has a riyal-pegged-to-USD cost structure.
What it means is that as the barrel drops in USD, the commodity-based currency ruble plunges and so does Russia's cost base, whereas for the Kingdom, they get fully crushed on their margin, because their production cost are all effectively USD. All this to say that Moscow has a built-in damper that helps it a bit when the barrel drops. Inversely as barrel shots up, ruble may appreciates too much and that would cap their gain as well.
If I follow this right, would it be fair to say Canada is in a similar position as russia, where CAD tanks with the price of oil lowering the cost base of oil sands players?
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Every single person I've talked to is thinking limit down. So I guess it'll limit up
The Future of the American Convenience Store
in General Discussion
Posted
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/circle-k-owner-couche-tard-said-to-explore-purchase-of-carrefour?srnd=premium-canada
Or maybe the future is to transition into full on grocery. Kind of makes sense. Couche-Tards invests heavily on data science regarding customer patterns, logistics, cashierless checkouts. Seems well suited for a grocer.