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Zorrofan

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Posts posted by Zorrofan

    Value Traps

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Buy BRK.  Let Warren and Charlie do the work for you.  I have 99.95% of my portfolio in it (the remaining .05% is spent on porn and cocaine).  I sleep great.  If the market closed so that only Methuselah was around when it re-opened I would be thrilled.  It's going to be $300,000 soon.

     

     

    LOL - that was funny!!  ;D

    Good deal for a cool $100 Million?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If I saw that in an art museum, I wouldn't stop to look at it.

     

    Same for me, but as long as he likes it, I guess he can spend his money however he wants...

     

    And now that it's been sold for that much, the signal has been sent to other collectors that it's worth at least that, so Cohen could probably sell it again and not lose money (as long as he's timing the art cycle a bit and doesn't offload it at the bottom)...

     

    You guys are looking at this the wrong way, you should be saying "how can i sell a piece of art like that for a cool $100 million?"    ;D

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    Natural gas

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year

     

    Cold Winter Isn’t Good Enough Reason to Bet on Higher Gas Prices

     

     

     

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-bulls-better-luck-next-year-heard-on-the-street-1414086555

     

    thanks for posting all of these links!  Are you betting on another cold winter?

     

    cheers

    Zorro

     

     

     

    Obviously, betting on the weather is a mugs game but a cold winter isn't looking promising:

     

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

     

    what the heck is driving natural gas up today? 

     

    and yes, betting on a cold winter is a mug's game - long term fundamentals are better though....potential for exports, conversion of trucking industry, switch from coal to natural gas to replace aging coal plants,  increasing demand from chemical co's etc, etc,

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    For love OR money?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Education is important but do you have to go to college?  What about something like learning a trade?  Does society put too much emphasis on a college education - i.e. become a lawyer, doctor or accountant - and look down on those who choose to learn a trade instead?  I believe in Germany (perhaps Frommi or another could comment) that at age 16 you are screened for vocational versus academic training, and there is greater co-operation between business, industry and the educational system with regards to mentoring those interested in the trades....

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    Why climate change is good for the world - Matt Ridley article

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I couldn't care less about rising ocean levels or temperature levels. Those are really non-issues when it comes to the damage climate change can cause.

     

    And, before I say what I'm about to say, I want to mention that I do tend to lean much further right than left on most political issues.

     

    With that being said, the real issues with global warming are the acidification of the ocean and, perhaps, much, much more scarily, ocean stratification and the re-creation of massive dead zones in the ocean, which could easily happen in the next fifty to a hundred years.  Most people aren't aware of these risks (perhaps because they require that oh-so-difficult second level thinking).  And they're absolutely terrifying.

     

    Here's a great article in the Economist about it:

     

    http://www.economist.com/news/science-and-technology/21571386-global-warming-may-make-northernmost-ocean-less-productive-not-more

     

    thanks for posting the link!

     

    Cheers

    Zorro

    Steve Ballmer's two investments

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Honestly, in the hands of Yahoo it might have been too much. They might have fked up yahoo AND google and then some third search engine would now have the monopoly.

     

    At some point didn't Microsoft own a fairly large chunk of Apple??  IIRC they bought a stake when Apple was going through a rough patch before Jobs returned to save the day.......selling that stake would fall into the category of dumb moves

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    Conglomerates vs Spinoffs - which creates more value?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Management may simply lack the skill or attention to manage companies in different industries. Berk can get around this because WEB isn't directly involved in the underlying firms.

     

    Imagine a shipbuilder and a toothpaste maker run by the same management team. In theory, it can be profitable....but would you think the management would have the skills for it?

     

    The argument for conglomerates is that segments (divisions) may be counter-cyclical to each other.....for example at a certain point in the cycle shipbuilding will generate large profits while toothpaste may be going through a low point due to competitive markets. Latter when shipbuilding takes a turn down toothpaste may be entering a more profitable part of the cycle. And why can't each division have a decentralized management team ala BRK?  Doesn't value creation have more to do with quality of management than with the number of divisions they have?

     

    cheers

    Zorro 

    Canadian oil patch for sale!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Wti and brent gap is collapsing. OPEC needs to show the world that they can and want to protect the price.

     

    Many producers are hitting year low day after day. Train wreck and huge constrast between now and just few short months ago

     

     

    Have the oil supply and demand fundamental change this dramatically in this short period of time?

     

    We will see many Canadian producers go up dramatically when they are assigned similar metrics to US.

     

    The problem with OPEC is that they need a certain amount of revenue to fund their budgetary spending.  Typically OPEC has counted on the Saudis to act as the swing producer, cut output and rebalance supply and demand. No one else wants to cut production because they need the money.  If the Saudis don't cut production and prices fall, the other OPEC countries try to pump more oil to make up the shortfall, driving prices lower in a vicious circle for them.  Eventually they will cut back, its in their own self-interest, but prices can still fall further in the meanwhile......

     

    My prediction is that we have not seen the bottom in oil prices.  I am hoping to see PWE below $5, then things get interesting....

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    Canadian oil patch for sale!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    [shadow=red,left]Numbers seem to good to be true, 1.3x for LTS??? vs a property they sold recently for 6.5x[/shadow].

     

      Since LTS is now again my largest position and i have been adding at these levels I have looked at a lot of presentations

    again to convince myself I am ok. they have reduced balance sheet risk and although still high they followed through on a plan outlined

    and debt is a couple of years out anyway. they have some of the highest netbacks in the industry and can ride out to some extent a continued fall in oil price- they have hedged to some extent production - cardium and bakken land producing good wells and is there any reason to think otherwise - there have been a couple of articles recently on sustainability of dividend (some posted on this thread) and it seems adequately covered and this is one big key for me in taking oversized position - friday bruce campbell was on BNN and postulated there could be a surprise in oil earnings due to the fact price received by CDN companies has not fallen that much -  so where does oil go to ? the big question  but to me anyway this is overdone - how much oil continued to be fracked in states at 70 dollar oil

     

    You have to remember that in the short-term the market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine (did i get that right?) so eventually the value will be recognized.  I think that at this stage the strength in the dollar drives down oil prices and makes investors reluctant to invest.  Rumor has it that the US and Saudi's are driving prices down in order to inflict pain on Putin, punishment for his actions in Ukraine.

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    question regarding trade deficit of the US

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If I am understanding your question correctly, you want to know if a Us owned company imports something from a Us owned factory in China (or any other country for that matter) if it counts as part of the trade deficit?  The answer is yes, even though it is US owned it is still imported and therefore counts as part of the trade deficit.

     

    Definition of 'Current Account Deficit'

     

    A measurement of a country’s trade in which the value of goods and services it imports exceeds the value of goods and services it exports. The current account also includes net income, such as interest and dividends, as well as transfers, such as foreign aid, though these components tend to make up a smaller percentage of the current account than exports and imports. The current account is a calculation of a country’s foreign transactions, and along with the capital account is a component of a country’s balance of payment.

     

     

    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currentaccountdeficit.asp

     

    Hope this helps...

     

     

    cheers

    Zorro

    “Macro” Musings II

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Everyone fears inflation, which means deflation is likely just around the corner....... As other countries in Asia and the EU all race to depreciate their currency the impulse will be deflation - at least for now. Everyone points to the "printing" by central banks as proof that inflation is coming but they fail to realize that the banks are just sitting on those reserves, that's why the ECB had to go to negative deposit rates - to try and force the banks to do something else with their money besides deposit it with the ECB.  My gosh, could that deflation hedge of Prem's payoff??  :o

     

     

    cheers

    Zorro

     

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