Zorrofan
-
Posts
671 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Zorrofan
-
-
Anyone else have concerns about what happens to reforms if Modi should lose upcoming elections?
-
I've bought trackers in the following companies:
Bolloré SA [CoBF Investment Ideas topic] [Company Website] For my part, ODET.PA has to wait for now,
Ackermans & van Haaren NV [No CoBF Investment Ideas topic so far] [Company Website] [Ticker : ACKB.BR][1],
Sofina SA [No CoBF Investment Ideas topic] [ Company Website ] [Ticker : SOF.BR] Yeah, I get my hair combed here - Financials are only available in French language![1],
HAL Trust [No CoBF Investment Ideas topic] [Company website] [Ticker : HAL.AS][1], &
Pargesa Holding SA [No CoBF Investment Ideas topic] [Company Website] [Ticker : PARG.SWX][2].
- - - o 0 o - - -
1 H/T & credit wachtwoord for putting these companies on my radar.
2 H/T & credit tom for putting this company on my radar. Link to tom's post about it - perhaps tom will cringe even more now [ : - D ].
John,
My concern with Bollore is what happens after Vincent Bollore retires? Does he have the depth of management in place that BRK does? Look forward to your thoughts.
cheers
Zorro
-
Russians don't wait for climate change, they act and ship from worst conditions than Churchill:
https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russias-icebreakers-make-it-king-of-the-arctic-and-amer-1791664539
Unfortunately, this country prefers giving away $15 billion/year to U.S. refiners and its citizens instead of finding ways to ship oil and its resources to other countries.
U.S. "eco" donors truly found a way to kill Canada: train/support protesters with maybe $10 million. This is no conspiration theory, it is easy to find publicly who donates to these various organizations such as Natives and ecolos.
Then after that kill NAFTA.
Soon enough the property market will crash and many will go hungry.
Cardboard
Clearly the environmentalists are doing more harm than good. As a result of their successful efforts at blocking Energy East and delaying the Transmountain pipeline they have created a situation where Alberta oil will be shipped via rail to the US instead, which poses a far greater environmental risk than the one they were opposing. Saudi oil continues to shipped by tanker up the St Lawrence yet they seem okay with Canada getting oil from countries where environmental standards are far lower than Alberta's. Nor do oil tankers in the St Lawrence seaway seem to bother them. Strange?
-
Don’t like this news but it rings inevitable.He’s done enough to educate and energy needs to be conserved some day.
I am predicting a big transition announcement in 2019 to mark 50 years since the last big transition from the partnership.
Sadly, it does feel like the end of an era is drawing near. IMHO what will be surreal is the first AGM without WEB &/or CM. Or will they start cutting the Q & A shorter, bringing Todd & Ted up to answer some of the questions?
As to the Q&A, it will take way more than two people to answer post current management. Some sort of meeting will happen! They don’t want to give up on all those dilly bar sales!
The biggest challenge to me would be writing that Chairman’s letter. That is a tough act!
I'm just thinking the time has come where they will start adding new people, along with WEB & CM, to start preparing us for the inevitable.....
-
I'm thinking in line with longinvestor. I think the logical step would be the chairman and the three vice chairmen on the stage next spring. Reduces workload on the two oldest of the four men during the whole day. Still no interviews with Mr. Buffet since July 17th ["Buyback policy change" announcement date]?
Yes, that would seem to be the next logical step. I'm thinking it may happen as soon as the next AGM.
-
Don’t like this news but it rings inevitable.He’s done enough to educate and energy needs to be conserved some day.
I am predicting a big transition announcement in 2019 to mark 50 years since the last big transition from the partnership.
Sadly, it does feel like the end of an era is drawing near. IMHO what will be surreal is the first AGM without WEB &/or CM. Or will they start cutting the Q & A shorter, bringing Todd & Ted up to answer some of the questions?
-
Any idea why BRK sold out of Verisk?
There are still 2,780,136 shares of Verisk held by Berkshire care of New England Asset Management 13-F filing owner code 01 02.
Including both 13-F filings, it appears to have declined by -458,692 shares, or -14.2% of the previous quarter's holding, and it just happens that all of Berkshire's direct holdings were eliminated.
More to come via my Look Through Portfolio thread.
thanks!!
-
BRK has held a stake since before it went public. Was wondering whats changed, thought about valuation but WEB didn't sell KO when it was wildly overpriced so......
-
Any idea why BRK sold out of Verisk?
-
https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-3/07-18-18.asp#.W1DKPNJKg2y
Although the final rule maintains the requirement to file the FERC 501-G, the final rule makes adjustments to the proposed form, including automatically eliminating the accumulated deferred income tax (ADIT) from a pipeline’s cost of service when the form enters a federal and state income tax of zero for pipelines that are non-tax paying entities. This adjustment is consistent with the Order on Rehearing of the Revised Policy Statement in Docket PL17-1-001 issued concurrently with the final rule. The final rule also encourages pipelines to file an addendum to the FERC 501-G to reflect their individual financial situation.
Huge pop in some MLP's today. FERC makes changes to form 501-G but does eliminating deferred income tax from cost of service really change things that much? In English please as my head hurts...
thanks
Zorro
-
Well WEB owns trains and planes so why not autos? I was really surprised by the move in to airline stocks. It seems to me that he used to hate cyclical businesses and what could be more cyclical than planes other than autos? They own a stake in GM already but again I'm really struggling to wrap my head around the airline move, especially given his past comments about doing investors a favor and shooting down Orville Wright at Kitty Hawk.
-
This is me thinking aloud and looking for feedback. I am trying to determine if this is an opportunity or a value trap.......
There is a lot of turmoil in the whole healthcare field right now - from CVS facing a potential threat from Amazon, RAD selling stores to WBA, Davita and UNH striking a deal, to funding changes in Medicare potentially affecting skilled nursing facilities. But of course with crisis comes opportunity.
Two companies I'm looking at are OHI and SBRA. Both are healthcare REITS and are deeply involved in renting facilities to skilled nursing home operators. Both have high yields approaching double digits, typically indicative of companies in trouble although both have been raising their respective dividends and can, for now, comfortably cover the dividend.
OHI's main problem is that it has three tenants representing 18.5% of revenue under stress, with one tenant no longer paying rent. OHI is working with tenants and has reduced rent for several operators. SBRA faces similar problems as both companies have a number of the same operators as tenants. SBRA is selling and/or transitioning properties held by weaker tenants. Tenant rental coverage has fallen the past few years for both companies, dropping for OHI tenants for example from approximately 2 to 1.3ish.
Skilled nursing facility operators face many headwinds. Falling incomes, reduced medicare coverage and higher operating costs have resulted in falling rental coverage. Government is looking at alternatives to reduce cost such as at-home-care. As skilled nursing operators have been under pressure many have sought rent reductions. This has called in to question just how sustainable is the dividend both OHI and SBRA pay and will they be able to sustain the current dividend going forward never mind continue to grow it.
Both companies pay a high dividend and have been taking steps to deal with tenant issues. If they can successfully deal with the ongoing industry headwinds they could provide a substantial return given their current low valuations. But I am concerned that the industry headwinds could last a number of years and that this is a value trap.
Sorry for rambling but looking forward to your thoughts......
cheers
Zorro
-
I can't see how a break-up wouldn't be in shareholders' interests 10 or so years after WEB passes.
As investors, we constantly face a plethora of agency costs, many of which WEB has railed against in the past (CEO compensation, options abusers, etc). With WEB's large ownership, he has effectively functioned as a benevolent dictator, and to a large extent, our minority shareholder interests are well-aligned with his. To his credit, he hasn't paid himself a $50m annual salary nor has he granted himself options which dilute us by 1% or so annually. So, we've been fortunate to have this thing headed by one of the best capital allocators on the planet who has chosen to not exploit his minority shareholders.
What about the next guy? Or more likely the second or third guy after WEB? Despite all of the rigmarole of having Howard on the board of directors to try to maintain the culture, eventually BRK is going to end up with a self-interested, Machiavellian son-of-a-bitch as a CEO. With a $500B+ market cap, it will be tempting as all hell for a future management team to issue "just a few options" to themselves. It will be tempting as all hell to award themselves a salary "commensurate" with the significance of their role of managing a $500B+ company. Given the ridiculous amounts of cash that is gushing in, it will be tempting as hell to make value-destroying acquisitions just for the prestige of so doing, or to make value-destroying acquisitions to impart additional volatility to the shares.
When the CEOs and management teams of the subsidiaries sees this, how will they react? WEB leads by example which exerts a certain discipline on both capital allocation and executive compensation in the subs. But, if the holdco management starts lining up at the trough and starts making silly capital allocation decisions (ie, pet projects, or vanity investments), you know very well that the subs will start doing the same thing.
To a large extent, this is a problem with a wide variety of listed companies, but it risks to be a larger and incorrigible problem for Berkie. Larger because of the ridiculous annual cashflows and the stupendous market cap. Incorrigible because there's no legitimate threat of a takeover. The threat of takeover disciplines the management of a poorly managed company, because they know that an activist shareholder or a corporate raider can step in and clean things up. But with a market cap of $500B+, there's no chance of a takeover, and once WEB's shares are donated and some of the other original shareholders croak, there's not much concentration to facilitate an activist shareholder.
Nope, my sense is that we will probably get lucky with the next guy and we'll get good management. But by 10 years post-WEB, there's a good chance that shareholders will be desperately dreaming of spin-offs and equity carve-outs to regain some semblance of control over management. Enjoy current management while it lasts -- it's too good to be true!
SJ
Sadly, you raise some good points. My original hope had been that the Gates Foundation would hold on to the shares WEB donated and through their own self-interest replace WEB as our guard against all the potential issues you raised. I thought that a small dividend paid out after WEB & CM are gone would generate enough cash to meet the charity's IRS requirements. However it appears they are just going to sell the shares.
-
fareastwarriors posted this on the general news thread but it made me wonder how many will stay "loyal" to BRK after WEB & CM are no longer in charge? I will vote against any breakup, forgoing short-term gain for the long-term profit I believe BRK will continue to generate. What are your thoughts?
"After Decades of Hints, Buffett’s Heir May Now Be More Apparent
The pressure to dismantle Berkshire will mount. The bulwark against that impulse is his successor, whose identity is one of the business world’s best-kept secrets.
cheers
Zorro
-
The Chinese have an interesting view but, quite stupid in my opinion.
I think it is quite probable that North Korea will try launching a missile or more towards Guam. However, what if there is a miscalculation and the thing hits land vs the ocean? The precision of their missiles has to be terrible at this stage.
Then it is quite probable that the U.S. and South Korea would launch an all out attack on North Korea's launch sites and HQ. Some of these sites are nuclear laboratories. If you were in China, would you not be worried of some radioactive fallout due to a site being bombed even with conventional weapons?
They need to start thinking about this more seriously in my opinion. It is one thing to stick it to the U.S. but, it is another to have casualties in your own country.
Cardboard
Right now China sees the most likely outcome being a unified Korea if North Korea collapses. I think that China simply cannot stomach the thought of a democratic, pro-US country located right on their border. Their sole reason for propping up North Korea has been to prevent that. Think US-Cuba as an example. The question becomes how does China and the US come up with a solution they can both live with.
-
Many already invested are wondering why its not going up faster. ;D
Many who are invested are wondering why they didn't buy more :(
-
Another horrific event, possibly terrorist related. And it follows an attack a few days ago on a train (again in Germany) where a 17 year-old Afghan attacked passengers with an ax.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36870874
You just know this will be used by both sides......my question is why can't people get along?
-
that's the $64,000 question isn't it - will oil continue to strengthen or will it roll over as Iran ramps up production, US shale drops off further etc....on the other hand Japan has had deflation for over 20 years regardless of oil. European demographics , China overcapacity etc etc......this is why WEB ignores macro
cheers
Zorro
-
Eurozone inflation continues to grind lower.....
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/04/29/eurozone-inflation-falls-short/
cheers
Zorro
-
all weekend I've listened to the talking heads blame France for not doing enough to help the Muslim refugees assimilate. Here is an article arguing that not only do they not want to assimilate, they want to assimilate us....
http://www.steynonline.com/7293/the-barbarians-are-inside-and-there-are-no-gates
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44vzMNG2fZc
Trump mentioned that most of the Syrian refugees coming into the US so far are strong males and he hasn't seen many women or kids.
I wonder if this is an infiltration. ::)
http://nypost.com/2015/10/11/trump-says-syrian-refugees-could-be-a-trojan-horse-for-isis/
He may be referring to this.....
There is a great deal of fear in Europe right now, understandable given this horrible tragedy, and several countries have closed their borders to new refugees.....
-
thanks for posting! you seem to have an incredible knack for sourcing these types of materials.
cheers
Zorro
-
We have a thread on potential blow-ups in China, so since this is a value investing board, why not a thread on China bargains?
i'll kick it off with BABA...it may be the best way to play the Chinese consumer and is down nicely from it's highs earlier this year.....
cheers
Zorro
-
at least its not food related......
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/10/05/apr-energy-ma-idUSL3N12528120151005
cheers
Zorro
Fairfax2019
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
I have been a FFH shareholder for longer than some of you may have been alive! I suffered the seven lean years and hoped for seven prosperous ones before Prem put on the hedges during one of the longest bull runs in our lifetimes.
But facts are facts. At the close of 1998 the book value of FFH was $112.49, rising to $432.46 by the end of 2018. This represents a growth rate of less than 7% for the past twenty years. You can add on a bit for the dividend but it still represents a rather disappointing performance. Prem is quick to mention the results since inception but frankly the last 20 years have been lackluster and I am seriously questioning the performance we can expect going forward.