At the risk of sounding like a fear monger, I am gonna bump this one since my ear to the ground is signalling weird stuff in macro signals (albeit with no real new insights).
There was a post on Philisophical Economics a few years back that more or less said: use a filter for the 10 month MA to reduce false positives in the signal. I found a lot of value in the approach and felt that I should find some good signals to take advantage of it. The writer mentions a few different data points to consider and my favorites were industrial production growth, housing starts, and unemployment trend. I also like the data point RECPROUSM156N which comes from St Louis Fed...
Last quarter, the 10 year - 3 month yield curve inverted for the first time since the recession. This signal tends to be VERY early so take it with a grain of salt.
Industrial Production growth slowed last quarter... it isn't negative yet, but something to watch.
Housing Starts slowed last quarter, growth is negative YOY, and is trending lower.
One signal that seems to have a lot of false positives is the Advance Retail and Food Services Sales change YOY. This is currently slightly positive, but showed a slight dip negative in 12/2018.
Another signal the writer mentions is real personal income growth which is also only at 2.3% YOY which is a bit below the 3% break-point mentioned as a possible filter.
Unemployment rate trend is nowhere near to heading higher which is indeed different than the above mentioned signals so... when the numbers are in the ~3.8 range, extreme caution should be warranted.
Zooming out on the SPX we see a nearly perfect double top at the beginning of the month.
As a final measure, the indicator I above mentioned that I like which last updated on 5/1 for March: RECPROUSM156N is showing a higher number than has been shown since 2013. The last time it was higher than that was coming out of the recession. The tough part about using this one as a confirming indicator is that it is just an amalgamation model of the others already mentioned.
All this being said, just yesterday WEB said something along the lines of: stocks are cheap if interest rates stay at these levels, and, to the point I agree. Perhaps best to stay long for a bit longer?? Like I said, I offer no insights over the next person...just hearing and relaying what the tea leaves are telling me! :P
Also, I have no idea when the bottom will be so it is probably best to hedge somehow here or in the near future instead of selling to buy at a later date.