jasonw1
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Posts posted by jasonw1
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I don't quite get what you guys are complaining, but it has relatively little impact to BYD in terms of production, earnings, or enterprise value impairment.
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Is there a summary investment thesis for LVLT?
One thing puzzles me is why their revenue isn't growing, with all the devices and multimedia data, there is tremendous growth in data going through their pipe, why are they not able to get more money from it.
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Just saw this on Yahoo Finance headline news, it's going to generate a lot of hits
When it rains, it pours.
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Hi Josh,
I just posted about DJSP in another thread where it was first mentioned. There are more bad news for DJSP:
I sold out as a loss. I would consider ride it out if it's temporary halting foreclosure by banks, but DJSP is being picked out and dropped for their questionable practice, I expect all banks will follow so they can appear clean. Also the court hearding of one of their previous paralegal doesn't look good either.
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The question is and has always been "su casa es mi casa" Stein. It looks cheap but he worries me.
It is a model that works 2 years every 20, so it is a concern when the Rothman IPO is done at the pick of that 20 year cycle and you have an over promotional CEO. It looks just cashing out and a story stock.
Are real the stories that he is buying again?
DJSP looks like a mistake. Although the business is not the kind of business I like (not sustaintable, profit from "unfortunate" event, hated etc), I thought it's cheap enough to buy, but the halt in foreclosure by banks, law suit of questionable practices of the firm, Citi bank dropped it as service provider today, plus the CEO's lavish life style and "love" of money. All these should have been on my checklist before buying.
I exited all my position at a loss.
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In the past several days BOA halted their foreclosures across 50 states, and there is increasing talk about full moratorium on foreclosures.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/08/AR2010100806850.html
What's the impact to housing market & banks?
I think in the short term it may help stablize housing price a bit as all the foreclosures are taken from the market, reduce supply. So there will probably be less great house deals if you're a buyer. It does look like a bad thing for banks as they will have people living in the property without paying mortgage, and they can't foreclose. I think it's also bad for title insurance, foreclosure service companies etc.
Not sure about its impact to general stock market and economy, any idea?
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Klarman talked about his concerns about understated inflation and dollar debase, as retail investor, what are the ways to protect, even profit, from dollar debase?
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I just want to say whatever the discussion may turn out to be, Harry, T-bone, please don't take it personal, stop posting or leave the board. IMO your debate is truly valuable and they make the board balanced and great
I've learned to appreciate difference in opinion and heated discussions more and more in recently years. They may not be pleasant but they are extreamly valuable and make you think the "blindspot" you may not be aware of. Having everyone agree with you doesn't make you better or help you make money, by nature if you want to make outsized returns you will have a lot of people, aka market/general public, disagree with you.
There are quite a few people left/banned from the board now, including RickV recently, I actually miss the heated discussions and the points they brough up, even more so for the additional insights other members brought up (I don't think coc would have posted as much without being pushed on the button). Though I sure wish people could stay a bit more objective and civilized while having the debate.
So please keep posting, debating, and don't take it personal!
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I believe it's the first time DJSP is mentioned on this board. I also hold DJSP and think it's cheap, and it's also a good hedge on job and economy won't be getting any better soon.
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Great find Yu. I saw some other ad rates quote a while back online and they seem to be consistent
The selling and fraud concern is creating huge uncertainty on Chinese stocks and CCME. Once the smoke clears up, we would know the frauds vs real company.
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It's astonishing to see the interest in this thread. Where's the margin of safety when astute observers estimate that most Chinese companies cook their books. Has anyone read the book, Mr. China? It's a humorous but sad story of fraud and deception.
Other than the frauds for stock trading in OTCBB and pink sheet, do you know any Chinese company listed in Nasdaq or NYSE with a big 4 auditor which is involved in fraud?
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Are the numbers you have quoted for minimum or maximum obligations?
It's estimate with existing bus contracts at the end of 2009, assuming 10% concession fee growth. The increase of concession fee should be offset by CPM increase of their ads space, its CPM is low comparing to other avenues, and there is also inflation. Page 67 of 10K for details.
How did you get comfortable that the contracts will be enforcable?Are you referring to the contract between CCME and the operating company in China? As far as I know it's standard practice for China companies listed in US, BIDU, SINA, FMCN all had similar arrangement to get around the direct investment limitation in certain areas in China. The CEO and founder owns half of CCME, I don't see why he would want to screw up its shareholders.
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Another potential risk is what has happened to AirMedia. The airports are charging more for rental space. Couldn't the bus cos do the same thing?
I think CCME is in a much better position than AirMedia in terms of negotiating ads space cost. The company partners with 45 bus operators so none of the individual operator is big enough to be too powerful. AirMedia has to deal with a handful of ad space suppliers and each of them (airlines) is significant enough and with enough scale that they can drive hard bargains. Classical example for balance of power between supplier and distributor.
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Very good questions, Packer.
Wouldn't Focus Media, AirMedia and VisionMedia (that are providing advertising at other venues - airports, subways, etc.) just enter the market?That's possible but unlikely to happen IMO.
There is one time payment (I read somewhere but couldn't find anymore) and installation/equipment (~$1,000 per bus) cost to get started with each bus operator.
The deal they sign with bus operators are 5-8 years which gives them time to strength their lead and relationship with bus operators.
It's possible but in reality if you look at FMCN, AMCN, VISN they tend to hold onto their individual niche very well. I would expect CCME to follow the same pattern.
Regarding to concession fees:
The number of buses with CCME's LCD display and concession fees, it averages ~$1200/bus/year
Dec. 2007: 10,053, $10.7 million
Dec. 2008: 15,260, $20.0 million
Dec. 2009: 20,161, $24.8 million
Here is the estimate for next 5 years:
Total 20 10 201 1 201 2 201 3 201 4
(In thousands)
Concession fee obligations $ 97,868 $ 28,760 $ 31,636 $ 20,183 $ 11,034 $ 6,255
From the concession fee obligation estimate it also shows they won't have existing buses coming off long term contract until 2012.
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"Now come back to CCME. It is equally or more important what is not said in the 10ks than what is said in the 10k or 10Qs.
Is there enough disclosed? Read the earnings releases and reports of CCME and compare it to other companies in the industry. Is there similar disclosure as other companies? What is the ad rate it charged to customers? How much total ad times available to sale? What's the proportion ad slots sold? so on and on."
Read the 10K :-)
Just got some time to look at ONP as it was mentioned in thread. Does this look like fraud to you?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Orient-Paper-Further-Responds-prnews-4256390971.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Orient-Paper-Audit-Committee-prnews-2752970504.html?x=0&.v=80
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I owned GRMN for a couple of years but sold out several years back. It's a great company, great engineering, quality and trustworthy management, but share price has gone from 120 to 30 because of PE contraction. I think it's getting interesting at this point, as I don't believe smartphone will replace all the demand for GPS. I have a smart phone and have 3 GPS options on it, tried them all and none of them worked as well as my Garmin, they're such a hassle that I don't use them anymore.
In some degree, the landscape of GPS a few years back was similar to PC industry. You have the map providers (Navteq and another one in EU I forgot the name), they're the equavelent of OS, provides data and platform and have increamental update which give them endless upgrade cycle, great business, I was a Navteq stock holder too but it got bought out by Nokia, the other one was bought out by Tomtom (?)
Then there are chip manufactures, SiRF was the best in the class at that time and had the chance to be Intel of GPS, that didn't play out and ilooks like it got bought out by a PE firm.
I thought GRMN as the DELL of GPS, great execution and efficiency, but they don't have deep of moat with the device only, they are the best in class but had to face brutal competion and dropping price.
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Not that I want to defend CCME, I'm geniuely interested in finding anything fishy with this company. I'm not as well-versed in accouting and financial analysis as many of this board, I thought I would throw this out and get people's view.
Agreed perception is probably the biggest factor, but it's also why the opportunity exists, IF it's real :)
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So I get the message there is high risk for investing in China stocks, I personally encountered 2 frauds but got out early after things look suspicious, they're not that hard to detect. I'm interested in any actual problems/facts you can find with CCME which is a big turnoff, anything?
There are also many China stocks people seem to comfortably bidding up the price like BIDU. If you look at FMCN which has similar business model, people are OK pay 15 forward P/E.
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Just curious, what made you invested in BIDU? Which is not a state-owned enterprise, and why wouldn't you invest in CCME.
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CCME's competitive advantage -- which allows it to earn these high returns / high growth -- is the contract they have with the government.
They don't have contract with government. From what I read it's simply a stamp from an government afficiated entity which says their LCD displays on bus are legitimate and allowed, although it only said this to CCME, there are competitors, even the bus operators can install them and do these themselves, the key is that they don't have the scale and enough weight talking to big ads client.
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Two words for you guys: Orient Paper (ONP)
What about ONP? Why does it have anything to do with CCME?
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There are certainly redflags in its financial reports. For one, CCME's revenue grew more than 24 fold from 2006 to 2009 while its sales force almost remained flat.
They use ad agency to sell most of their ads, who take some cut, so this doesn't look like real problem. Company has said they're moving more business to direct sales where they get 10-20% more money for their ads space, I would expect the number of sales person will increase accordingly as the direct sale portiion increases.
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Graham holds MSFT and has been touting it.
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I have been following and buying CCME for some time and noticed that there are several people also hold position on this. In summary it's a outdoor advertising business where they display ads on LCD TVs installed in inter-city express buses. Trading at PE=4 with amazing growth rate (200+%, which for sure won't continue), $139 million in cash and market cap of $284 million.
This old seekingalpha article outline some basics. http://seekingalpha.com/article/209877-china-mediaexpress-the-most-undervalued-stock-poised-to-profit-from-china-s-emerging-middle-class
I think the share is insanely cheap, there are only one thing could explain this: the company is a scam. From all the digging I have done, this is not a scam. It's a pretty straightforward business and makes sense, there are also compaies like FMCN which has done well in another niche. There are also worries of huge dilutions with manager earnout shares and warrents (~15 million), but even factor that in couldn't explain the share price.
With all the intelligence on this board, please help poke a hole on this investment.
Large Tech
in General Discussion
Posted
In YHOO's case, you don't need to depends on the unpredictable future success of specific tech products, the sum of its parts is more than the whole. You do need to have willingness and figure out most efficient way to unlock value. The catalyst is coming:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-14/yahoo-said-to-work-with-goldman-sachs-to-defend-against-possible-takeovers.html?cmpid=yhoo