SHDL
-
Posts
689 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by SHDL
-
-
Just now, Gregmal said:
Is there anything that isn’t these days?
fair point -
My only thought about AI is that it seems bad for office RE
-
There was apparently a large number of bearish option bets against these tech names going into Friday's opex and dealers were closing the short positions that they had as hedges as those options expired. Check out jam_croissant on Twitter if that sounds interesting.
-
23 minutes ago, lnofeisone said:
I'm following this general structure with some IAT in the mix. My "large" bank basket favors WFC because of the asset cap (though I am thinking more about the mixed shelf offering they filed). Here is my thinking:
1) I suspect BAC/JPM/WFC will all experience a deposit influx. WFC's influx won't be as big because they offer terrible rates and, in any case, don't want too much in deposits.
2) Asset cap forced WFC to be nimbler about their deposits, and they have relatively low deposit costs.
3) Probably because of the asset cap, they've been shrinking their assets and now have room to pick up new assets (lend) at higher rates.
4) Asset cap removal is a catalyst. They have some space to pick up assets now, but removing the asset cap will let them increase that significantly.
If only WFC could keep its computer systems working well and modernize its IT to join the 21st century. It's especially important not to have glitches when depositors are already jumpy.
Those are good points. Do you have a sense of when the cap will be lifted? I get the impression that it's been dragging on forever with no end in sight.
-
I'm generally on board with this. I do have some BAC. Some questions:
1. GS, MS: Why do you think they will benefit from these events?
2. WFC: How do you feel about the asset cap?
-
30 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
He’s not wrong. This guy Jerry is utterly clueless and looking at data fed to him by people with an agenda. In what world is there still meaningful inflation? Not this one. As Mattee said, stuff is up 20-30% from pre COVID. It’s not coming down barring a disaster. But it’s done going up. Everyone just needs to get with reality and wake the F up. I mean even oil which is like fundamentally built to be ripping into the stratosphere price was…cant. Things are fine and they need to stop fucking with things or it’s gonna be bad for the majority of the country. One day there will actually be a post mortem and it’s gonna go something like “they had the most robust jobs market and economy we d seen in ages and a bunch of academics and hedge fund managers convinced delirious old guys at the federal reserve we were on the verge of hyper inflation so they killed it”.
They'll probably pause the hikes soon if not at the next meeting. They have a perfectly good excuse to do so now that they've thrown a big wrench in the banking system which should tighten credit by a lot for a while. The big question is whether they have already overdone it or not.
-
Let me throw in a scary looking figure to get you folks excited:
-
2 hours ago, wolverine890 said:
3) they would like to see housing prices fall by ~20% from their peak.
Has the Fed ever actually said that?
-
Added a bit to BAC and JOE, low ball bids for SCHW didn't get filled.
-
9 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
If the issue for banks is MTM, doesn’t bind buying or rate cutting guarantee more or less a solution?
Yes which is why I think the fear is somewhat overblown. And even if the Fed doesn't do anything, people getting scared and rushing into Treasuries alone should fix the problem to some degree.
-
13 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:
Buffet suggested this many moons ago.......that a bank account would come with FULL mandatory deposit insurance coverage.....that insurance being provided by a private entity incentivized to assess the risk of each bank model when providing coverage fee quotes......the rational of which would say that deposit account insurance premiums would rise on banks displaying riskier or more flawed business models......and reduced for those whom were very likely never to have to call on said insurance. The FDIC system, to my understanding has some small differentiation of risks in its premium calcs, but in reality it has a bit of free rider problem.........imagine pretty much everyone getting charged the same for car insurance.......your DUI saddled uncle & your aunty who never goes over 40mph paying pretty much the same.
Right, it sounds like a perfectly good idea so why the government “monopoly” is the question… It’s like saying you can only buy auto insurance from the government and you can only get up to $5000 coverage per car. -
That was quite a weekend!
Some thoughts:
1. The government (FDIC/Fed/Treasury) won't let depositors at other banks lose their money after this. If they do, that would be like a perfect replay of Lehman. And they have the money ... or the money printer to be more precise.
2. But yes, depositors will probably move their deposits en masse this week regardless. As @changegonnacome pointed out, this shouldn't topple any bank immediately but some may be required to raise capital soon. The lending facility will give them the time to do so in an orderly manner if nothing else.
3. A mild recession could actually strengthen the balance sheets of many banks as interest rates will probably go down in that event and make treasuries and MBS more valuable. Of course a severe recession would be no good.
4. The FDIC limit will almost certainly be increased (and the FDIC will charge a higher price for it).
5. Speaking of which, I don't quite understand why private insurance companies do not sell deposit insurance...
-
5 hours ago, Gregmal said:
Weren’t banks the high rate beneficiaries?
Not if you're forced to sell your assets at the wrong time/price...
Anyhow re: SVB - we'll see how this mess gets resolved over the weekend and its ripple effects on the broader economy (if any) but based on what I've read so far about their importance in the SV startup world I'm surprised they weren't required to go though those annual Fed stress tests!
-
So now a major bank run has suddenly entered the picture? That’s promising…
The only problem is I can already hear the sound of government intervention coming this way.
-
Sooner or later someone is going to ask them to do Liberty style tracking stocks. I mean who wouldn’t want to buy some $BAPLK (Berkshire Apple Group Series C) and get AAPL at a 40% discount plus some shares of See’s Candy and Benjamin Moore thrown in for free?
-
20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Thirty two hundred! Even if just for a split second so I can say I called it!
NQ 3200 would be great, hope we get there tomorrow morning -
15 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
I don't know why the algo here thinks that I am target audience for female swimsuits.
Too many guys talking about Florida beaches and Disney and Aritzia
-
39 minutes ago, johnpane said:
Distressed credit.
and/or use (lots of) leverage.
But in either case this it's a hard game to be playing as an individual investor.
-
58 minutes ago, Castanza said:
It’s easy to hold cash when you’re already rich, own cash producing companies and hold billions in assets that spit out millions in dividends every year.
How much cash did WB hold in his early days?
Unless you already have a solid portfolio to hold cash on top of; its just a more eloquent justification for trying to time the market no?Berkshire has a “fat wallet problem” in that they can’t easily sell their stocks quickly to raise cash when a great deal comes along. At least that was Buffett’s explanation for why he likes to hold so much extra cash. He also did say that if he were managing a “normal sized” portfolio he’d be fully invested. IIRC BPL was modestly levered most of the time.
-
26 minutes ago, gfp said:
It is securities that trade on a US exchange. So it includes foreign stocks that trade on a US exchange like DEO and BABA but not Berkshire's ownership of equities that trade on exchanges in Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, Australia, etc... It also doesn't include traditional open-ended mutual funds or short positions, except for certain short positions in options that are similar to a long position in the equity.
Right, I believe this is the "official list" of securities that must be reported: https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13flists
I never quite understood why some ADRs are on that list and others aren't but it may have to do with whether they're listed on NYSE/NASDAQ etc vs OTC.
-
5 hours ago, crs223 said:
What’s the reason BRK has to disclose domestic holdings but not foreign holdings? I assume it’s a law. What problem is such a law trying to solve?
Yes - here is some info about it:
https://www.sec.gov/divisions/investment/13ffaq
I've always assumed that foreign stocks are exempt because they are not under US jurisdiction but I could be wrong.
-
Their foreign stock positions are no longer disclosed for one. Not necessarily complaining though as I’m sure he has good reasons.
-
Well that was a strange letter. He even skipped the usual summary of their stock portfolio. It's almost as if he doesn’t want to talk for some reason…
-
43 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:
I know this is a bit outdated, but I'd be a bit careful with that. Most Canadian mortgage bonds are guaranteed wholly (or in parts on the underlying) by CMHC, a crown corp. My understanding is that (unlike Fannie/Freddie) it has a full faith/credit guarantee from the government. So if the the entity that prints CAD guarantees a CAD obligation...
I was joking about the CDS trade but this is very good to know, thank you.
Probability (FDIC guarantees all $20 Trillion in deposits --> High inflation continues) = ?
in General Discussion
Posted
The SVB and Signature Bank deposit guarantees are financed by a "special tax" on banks (if needed), so assuming they do the same with a broader deposit guarantee I don't expect that to be inflationary.