AI Frenzy
The AI frenzy is driving a sharp turnaround in the debt of telecommunications companies, helping to cut the amount of distressed debt by $18 billion since the end of August.
“Several companies that were deemed to be overleveraged are seeing their capital structures trade materially tighter because of their participation in the artificial intelligence value chain,” said Randy Raisman, head of US opportunistic credit at Marathon Asset Management.
Many telcos have been suffering from a combination of soaring borrowing costs, high leverage and a need for huge capital expenditure to roll out new technologies. However, AI has made fiber assets for high-speed internet and connectivity critical, especially within and between data centers. With networks so costly to build, companies with existing infrastructure have an advantage, making them worthy acquisition targets and boosting their debt prices.
It’s a marked reversal from May, when the telecommunications sector was home to some of the biggest and most distressed situations in the credit market. The size of that troubled pile has now shrunk below $49 billion on the back of increased M&A activity. Lumen Technologies is the biggest gainer this year in US high yield bonds while CommScope Holding’s debt has also rallied.
Deals include Verizon Communications agreeing to buy rival telecommunications operator Frontier Communications Parent for about $9.6 billion to expand its high-speed internet business. Lumen announced $5 billion of new deals, while T-Mobile partnered up with others to acquire fiber businesses.
A security barrier inside a data center in Italy
It’s not just telco investors that are benefiting. Struggling chipmaker Intel’s bonds have also jumped on the back of mooted external investment and a deal to make a custom AI chip for Amazon.com.
For distressed investors, the telco turnaround is proving to be one of the most significant valuation shifts in recent years and a source of outsize returns. For example, investors were surprised when a struggling CommScope announced a roughly $2 billion asset sale in the summer. It's also seeing increased demand from the construction of data centers.
It means telecoms is now sharply outperforming the overall high-yield bond index, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co., despite having a default rate, including distressed exchanges, of about 13% in the 12 months through Sept. 3 across junk bonds and loans.
To be sure, the sector still has vast pockets of distress, such as Altice Group, but capital-intensive investments in fiber that saddled companies with large debt loads have been vindicated to some degree. Rising market caps are also opening the possibility of raising financing in the equity markets as well as the use of hybrid instruments like convertible bonds.
“Telecom companies already are using AI to make themselves more efficient at routing, network maintenance and customer support,” said Mark McCabe, senior research analyst at Obra Capital. Still, “greater efficiencies and further technological developments may dampen any demand windfall for telecom companies in the medium to long term.”