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cm2

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  1. AI Frenzy The AI frenzy is driving a sharp turnaround in the debt of telecommunications companies, helping to cut the amount of distressed debt by $18 billion since the end of August. “Several companies that were deemed to be overleveraged are seeing their capital structures trade materially tighter because of their participation in the artificial intelligence value chain,” said Randy Raisman, head of US opportunistic credit at Marathon Asset Management. Many telcos have been suffering from a combination of soaring borrowing costs, high leverage and a need for huge capital expenditure to roll out new technologies. However, AI has made fiber assets for high-speed internet and connectivity critical, especially within and between data centers. With networks so costly to build, companies with existing infrastructure have an advantage, making them worthy acquisition targets and boosting their debt prices. It’s a marked reversal from May, when the telecommunications sector was home to some of the biggest and most distressed situations in the credit market. The size of that troubled pile has now shrunk below $49 billion on the back of increased M&A activity. Lumen Technologies is the biggest gainer this year in US high yield bonds while CommScope Holding’s debt has also rallied. Deals include Verizon Communications agreeing to buy rival telecommunications operator Frontier Communications Parent for about $9.6 billion to expand its high-speed internet business. Lumen announced $5 billion of new deals, while T-Mobile partnered up with others to acquire fiber businesses. A security barrier inside a data center in Italy It’s not just telco investors that are benefiting. Struggling chipmaker Intel’s bonds have also jumped on the back of mooted external investment and a deal to make a custom AI chip for Amazon.com. For distressed investors, the telco turnaround is proving to be one of the most significant valuation shifts in recent years and a source of outsize returns. For example, investors were surprised when a struggling CommScope announced a roughly $2 billion asset sale in the summer. It's also seeing increased demand from the construction of data centers. It means telecoms is now sharply outperforming the overall high-yield bond index, according to data from JPMorgan Chase & Co., despite having a default rate, including distressed exchanges, of about 13% in the 12 months through Sept. 3 across junk bonds and loans. To be sure, the sector still has vast pockets of distress, such as Altice Group, but capital-intensive investments in fiber that saddled companies with large debt loads have been vindicated to some degree. Rising market caps are also opening the possibility of raising financing in the equity markets as well as the use of hybrid instruments like convertible bonds. “Telecom companies already are using AI to make themselves more efficient at routing, network maintenance and customer support,” said Mark McCabe, senior research analyst at Obra Capital. Still, “greater efficiencies and further technological developments may dampen any demand windfall for telecom companies in the medium to long term.”
  2. These are trading higher now, was good call, juicy investment grade yield
  3. Block of 10,000 KTBA traded 21 today! Cheap! thats an 8.35% vs underlying bonds on 6.50% High Grade telecom vs Lehman Bros, er Goldman Sachs lol Duration can be a good friend in falling rate environment...or if you have long dated liabilities...non cumulative, junk holdco financial floaters...not so much
  4. Underlying bonds trading on a 6.40% ytm, that would place these trust prefs at $28 sure, deserves some discount for complexity but cmon
  5. Did you do the math? Or do you think that asking math questions is a "contribution?" Happy to post fewer ideas in response to snarky responses of limited / no usefulness
  6. Why worry about T dividends when you can buy $KTBA (AT&T/ BellSouth, BBB) 7% '95 Trust Preferred: 8.80% Current Yield, 8.70% Yield to Maturity, 18% discount to $25 par value, sole underlying bond *BBB* BellSouth 7s '95 Cusip: 079867AP2 is trading ~$109 (PREMIUM). AT&T has previously tried to buy back entire issue, now 3rd parties are trying to steal them from retail https://tinyurl.com/3nt74ru4 https://tinyurl.com/ycxdac2x $KTBA pays .875 on 6/1, 12/1 Expert market (full service brokers only) or they would be trading *much* higher
  7. $KTBA (AT&T/ BellSouth, BBB) 7% '95 in USA: 9.3 %CY 9.25%YTM, 24% disc to par value, underlying *BBB* bond BellSouth 7s '95 079867AP2 trades 100. AT&T has previously tried to buy back entire issue, 3rd parties now trying to steal from retail https://tinyurl.com/3nt74ru4 https://tinyurl.com/ycxdac2x Trades in "Expert Market" Full service brokers only / no online, discount brokers
  8. Why worry about T dividends when you can buy $KTBA (AT&T/ BellSouth, BBB) 7% '95 in USA: 10% Current Yield, 10% Yield to Maturity, 30% discount to par value, sole underlying *BBB* bond BellSouth 7s '95 Cusip: 079867AP2 is 100ish bid. AT&T has previously tried to buy back entire issue, 3rd parties are trying to steal from retail https://tinyurl.com/3nt74ru4 https://tinyurl.com/ycxdac2x $KTBA pays .875 on 6/1, 12/1 Expert market, full service brokers only
  9. "PMIR" $825mm NOL shell (p18), 2.1mm shares, sb trading $20+/share based on comps (typically 5-10% nominal NOL) , but "Expert Market" / full service brokers only Lancer Capital / Avram Glazer ($MANU, Tampa Bucs etc) lead investor Happy to discuss - https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_70d6eb29082d14d5c271e79d3d83f75e/pmigrp/db/224/391/pdf/staples_scan.pdf
  10. KTBA "Bonds" trade into the bid almost every day...you just need to make/advertise the best bid...topping the bid by 1/4 point has v little effect on yield. These traded almost as high as $30 during period of low/no rates. Inexperienced investors can always make an unlimited number of excuses for their own failure to seize opportunities when they present themselves. These are gold.
  11. Why bother with T dividends when you can buy $KTBA (AT&T/ BellSouth, BBB) 7% '95 in USA: 9.35% Current Yield, 9.35% Yield to Maturity, 25% discount to par value, sole underlying *BBB* bond BellSouth 7s '95 cusip 079867AP2 is 100 bid. AT&T has previously tried to buy back entire issue, 3rd parties are trying to steal from retail https://tinyurl.com/3nt74ru4 https://tinyurl.com/ycxdac2x $KTBA pays .875 on 6/1, 12/1 "Expert Market" only - no discount electronic brokers
  12. How does one invest in Wintaai please?
  13. I think Alpha Met will earn 100% of its market cap in 2022, 2023 at these met coal spot prices, could pay out $50+ special dividend each year The warrants are incredibly cheap, I think already worth $21+ using Black Scholes and 1.15 Exchange ratio https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/dalian-met-coal-coke-hit-record-high-on-supply-crunch-2021-09-09
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