Casey
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Posts posted by Casey
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I sold out of AAPL.
Curious if you want to share any reasoning.
I have a bit long. Cranking out 30% app store fees, 80% of USA youths have an Apple phone, Trump has an apple phone, lowering costs on some models, Huwawei blocked for politics in USA, going towards services and other products like watch and health, reasonable capital allocation.
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For those that think governments should require masks in order to "save lives," do you also think the government should ban abortions to "save lives?"
If not, why do you believe in "my body, my choice" for for one and not the other? The death rate on abortion (for the aborted humans) is far, far higher than the death rate from covid19.
Not really, no.
A law about wearing a mask is more similar to laws about wearing a seatbelt, not being drunk while operating machinery, not smoking in certain areas IMO.
Is a comparison to abortion helpful? I guess i think there are more practical ways to approach the question of wearing a face covering during a pandemic.
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For many people, Trump's actions have become the gold standard for distinguishing good (friends) vs. bad (enemies).
Whenever Trump criticizes something or someone, that target suddenly becomes good or their dearest friend.
The hatred toward the man is so strong that it has turned their brains to mush. ::)
Irony much :o lol
Edit. I should probably interpret this a bit more charitably, since you're right. This kind of blindness does happen in the anti-Trump direction you're talking about. Trump's a king of generating brain mush in his supporters as much as haters though, imho.
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Interesting news, but I don't find it concerning. You can understand why Akre would sell it based on the kind of businesses they talk about wanting to own. Especially when you had the opportunity to buy some pretty interesting companies in March.
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Do you guys ever wonder why deaths per capita are higher in the "first world" countries?
I can imagine a few factors playing a role:
- Can't have the virus if you don't test for it
- Similarly, if you don't figure out numbers accurately w/in healthcare system
- some populations are earlier/later in the curve, more isolated or more connected internationally
- Responses vary a lot by country. Wouldn't be surprised if some are in fact better than USA.
- First world problems like diabetes, obesity, heart disease are a risk factor?
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Just because some internet clowns paid 25$ for a COBF membership doesn't mean you have to argue with them for 100 pages.
<pig in the mud quote>
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Bump.
I think a lot of people with high salaries in major cities are looking at houses in smaller cities and suburbs right now like: "Are you serious, I can live there instead of this $3,000/month apartment?" And that was true even before this pandemic caused people with office jobs to wfh.
I'm weeks late from what was the bottom in March, but so far the market has basically paid you to do what seem like obvious "its priced in" things. The obvious thing seems to me: a bunch of well-paid knowledge workers are now seriously comparing single family home life in suburbs or smaller cities with being cooped up in their expensive NYC (or wherever) apartment. Pre-covid, homebuilding stocks had also done quite well because (I think?) of demand from millennial demographic, low interest rates, and constrained supply. I can't say why, but they did pretty well anyways.
Now, homebuilders seem like a good way to be long the big city -> suburbia flow that's currently being prompted by demographics, pent up rent-is-too-damn-high frustration, pandemic, and WFH going increasingly mainstream.
Thoughts on this?
I get that some people hate work from home, but i think forcing everyone to do it is going to normalize it for many companies and help many people discover that they like it and it could work for them.
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This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502
Are you sure it's the right link?
Works for me, but I am also member . I logged out and repost:
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502
Ahh, thanks. I see I just didn't read far enough.
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This is a excellent post I another board on how South Korea was able to control the Virus . Key was to put the hammer doesn’t early.
https://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=4143&mn=447499&pt=msg&mid=20614502
Are you sure it's the right link?
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This thread lol
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When do people think we will be reporting less than 100 confirmed cases a day in Texas, New York, Florida, California?
This Fall? This winter? Next spring/summer?
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So me, the balance of evidence by far suggests that the antibody tests are questionable (the math saying you can't accurately measure accurately if the false positive rate is at all close to the actual infection rate). But even if it weren't, I think it's quite difficult to extrapolate the results to the rest of the country.
I hope these antibody tests are conducted across the country (countries) so we can get a much clearer picture and these speculative debates are no longer needed.
Indiana trying to do a big random sample!
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More context on how to interpret ~21%. From twitter
"The tests came from people in grocery and big box stores. Cuomo said this was important because it came from people who were out — not people isolating at home."
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Whenever we get to a market peak we generally also get the "The old man's gone senile and lost it" meme. It happened in 1999, it happened in 2006, and it seems like it's starting to happen again now.
As for the "All/most the value comes from tech innovation" idea let take a look down memory lane (figures approximate not exact):
Since 1990 to today Berkshire smokes the Nasdaq 1,300% to 500%.
Since 2000 to today Berkshire wins against Nasdaq again 400% to 100%
Since 2010 to today Nasdaq wins 270% to 180%. And they were tied at the end at 2018, with all the Nasdaq outperformance happening in the past year or so.
Sure sounds like someone who's lost it and overwhelmed by the new world in the new century.
Bezos is to Buffett as QQQ is to SPY :)
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This thread is funny. Basically the gist of the of article is that you have one the best/sharpest business leaders/investors in the world saying “Nobody in America’s ever seen anything like this. This thing is different. Everybody talks as if they know what’s going to happen, and nobody knows what’s going to happen.” Then you have a few anonymous posters on an internet forum trying to convince us that they know exactly what’s going to happen and what should be done with Berkshire’s money. :o To those posters I say, let us know when Jason Zweig calls to interview you for WSJ’s Intelligent Investor so when can all read up ;D
Haha. I'll let you know if he calls 8) Charlie's just bummed they sat on their hands too much and the market is back up. He's trying to talk some sense into it! FWIW, I do agree with him, but Re: berkshire, they should have been paying a dividend, doing buybacks, or buying more of the big tech cos than they are. For years. I'll take Facebook and Amazon specifically to outperform BRK.B massively over the next 20 years to the point that it's comedic anyone considered it an open question.
For BRK owners... if you think of yourself as a long term investor, why do you own a business whose calling card is a pair of 90 year old experts in 20th century businesses?
Amazon and FAAGM generally have plenty of smart operators who have studied Buffett, understand the 21st century economy and businesses, have better data, better opportunities to invest capital, benefit from technology, and have all shown it by growing faster than BRK the last 10 years.
What's the advantage of BRK the business at this point? 1-5 years of Warren Buffett and staff picking a basket of bank stocks and SPY for you, and a random conglomerate with low synergies or integration, pays no dividend, has upcoming governance/brand risk?
Okay, that's pretty un-nuanced bordering on dumb devil's advocate take, but basically, I have a hard time disagreeing with myself about too much of it. I do own BRK, and trade in and out of it occasionally. You can tell when it's a good time to sell because it never goes above $225 a share :P
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Why is it, that, regardless of content, the majority of the Twitter links you post are filled with losers who's posting history, 90%+ revolves around a Trump obsession?
Speaking of obsessed ::) It's a nice day Gregmal, take a walk!
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Allright, I was having a beer an playing with numbers. I saw that somewhere in Israel they were actually doing group testing instead of individual ones. Basically they had 64 persons spit and then if the group was positive they would test 32, etc...
I tough it was an interesting concept, just like a DB works you can find a value much quicker by splitting the pile in halves over and over again.
I then went to take Quebec numbers (I live there). Assuming there is 0.3% of the population that has Covid, you don't want the group to be so large that 100% will test positive but you don't want the group so small that it's a waste of resources.
If I want about 25% of the initial test to turn out positive, how big should I make the initial group test? Well it turns out it's about 8000. For a population of 8M that is 1 000 tests (Quebec has a capacity of 12K/ test per day). So easily we can test all groups of 8000 on day 1, the next day, the groups that turned positive are split into 4 and so on.
Within 11 days we would have tested 8M people, found out the individuals, and we could repeat the process again. 22 days and we would be done with it. Quebec has a capacity of 12K tests per day, so that would not even interfere with the screening of the symptomatic persons.
Besides scaling 8000 persons per group what else am I missing here?
BeerBaron
I think the tests are not perfect and only pick it up if there's a certain amount? So 1/8000 people or whatever would be too diluted. Otherwise that's kind of genius. I am a chemistry & science layman so take it fwiw.
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Awesome. I would love to know if I've had this already.
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@casey/aways drawing
why does the graph show 3 weeks of covid while it has been in US over 12 weeks? why does the weekly rate when added over the 3 week periods shown indicate well over actual 9,000 deaths? which of you put together this crappy graph, as you haven't suppled a source for this POS that you seem so proud of...
edit: based on this POS graph, every flu season has >150,000 deaths...
Hey Cherzeca, seems like a valid critique chart to me. sources are listed on the bottom right hand side, but I couldn't find the underlying data that it's based it on, and with Flu deaths 3k per week all year maybe it's just a baseless chart unless my understanding of flu dynamics is way off. I admit I didn't look that critically at these numbers before posting so thanks for checking me.
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Agreed that it is obviously not the flu. Re: the title question of this thread, it does seem like there will be plenty of "just a flu" folks who are basically impervious to looking at data or applying some common sense napkin math.
They're going to be confident in booking travel, going to mall, book cruises, etc as the economy reopens. So forecast accordingly.
Exhibits A and B for my point.
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Not the flu
Agreed that it is obviously not the flu. Re: the title question of this thread, it does seem like there will be plenty of "just a flu" folks who are basically impervious to looking at data or applying some common sense napkin math.
They're going to be confident in booking travel, going to mall, book cruises, etc as the economy reopens. So forecast accordingly.
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How many are concerned about the amount of unemployment insurance is higher than a lot of jobs that people are losing their job from?
Why would someone go back to work when we reopen and risk their life working at Walmart when they can stay home and watch netflix?
Munger always talks about how important incentives are.
What you speak of could happen some, but the list of things that concern me more is pretty long.
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Rural health center where my family member works has 3 doctors and a few days ago one was confirmed to have covid so now they are down to 2.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
So it looks like we've reached the 'Justifying slavery via the existence of atheism' part of the outbreak?
Probably bullish for stocks!