Casey
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Posts posted by Casey
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sold some FB leaps, bought MSFT/FB
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That's a nice big chunk of VZ
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my guess is Google
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More Dropbox
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"First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps."
+1
Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years?
Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives?
I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up.
Cardboard
Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey.
You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol
Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing.
Biden is a moderat republican? :o Did you see his promises to raise trillions of tax and all other things? That seems like a radical left.
BTW, Biden's son took a 2bn dollar loan from Bank of China in 2015. Nobody knew what happened later. It could be "forgiven" and pocketed. He needs to explain that because that is wayyyy bigger than his son's Ukraine dealings.
Feel free to ignore my "moderate republican" language if it helps get the main gist. IMO Biden's more of a centrist than plenty of Democrats (take Bernie or Warren), and will basically act like a sane person as President. Don't think he'd be functionally that different over 4 years than someone like Romney, Bush, Obama.
re: taxes. Biden's proposed tax changes are $4 Trillion Over 10 Years, ~400 billion a year. Maybe high if he does the whole thing. Trump tax cut is like 1.8 trillion over 10 years from google. So Biden proposal fills that back in and adds an increase of similar size. Not really seeing what is radical about these levels up or down, but okay yeah taxes would go up.
For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey.Any comment on this part? You don't think its a big deal?
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bought some Spotify
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Warning to people who are still bullish on the market, I think the COVID situation is improving too fast and asset bubble is brewing too quickly and FED may be stopping the QE soon and I expect the market to build a major top here soon.
To me, your comment seems to imply that:
A) you view the Fed much more influenced by COVID case numbers than employment numbers. Or perhaps,
B) you believe that the COVID case numbers are so strongly correlated to the employment numbers so that they're basically the same thing (i.e. if COVID cases decline to zero, employment will quickly return to high levels). Or,
C) the Fed cares a lot about asset bubbles and sees this one, so they'll reduce stimulus even if employment hasn't recovered.
Is one of these views basically your position? Because the evidence I've seen seems to suggest that the Fed is likely to be reluctant to reduce stimulus until employment numbers return to levels that cause significant inflation.
So, I'm curious if you think A, B, or C above is true, or if there's something else that I don't understand about your reasoning that will help bridge that gap for me. Thanks!
B.
But my bearish view is based on a large amount of data points I track, not just based on COVID alone. Those data points led me to sell out in mid Feburary and I was feeling like a fool for two more weeks back then.
Right now those data points look even more exaggerated than in Feb.
However, I've been weighing the two scenarios since last night. Sector rotation vs everything crash.
I start to lean against the case of a sector rotation right now. When AAPL, TSLA, SHOP etc go bust, traditional value stocks could have their day.
People who bought AAPL and TSLA have never bothered to look at what happened in 2000. Cisco was the equivalent of AAPL and TSLA today. When Cisco went into bust, it went down 90% while traditional value stocks like BRK went up 100%
Not a bad call here!!
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"First, it was "wear a mask, its the only vaccine we have!", then its "dont get the vaccine, it will help Trump!". After the election, assuming Biden wins, the vaccine will be the "responsible thing to do"...The narrative is always changing with these chumps."
+1
Their narrative is simply crazy. Just imagine if Trump wins another term... Are some going to hang themselves over true despair or they will just keep whining, yelling and screaming as they have been over the last 4 years?
Some talk about trust, institutions and approval process. If there is something I trust the least is unaccountable people, getting paid no matter what. Just like that so useful WHO who declared it a pandemic after lockdown was in force! And these are the ones who we should put our trust in for our lives?
I have a ton more trust for 20-30 large and respectable pharmaceutical companies all competing to deliver best product to consumers and who could get sued to the point of extinction if they screw up.
Cardboard
Fascinating. For me personally, very worried about how Trump is a wannabe autocrat who is moving (successfully) towards making the U.S. more like regimes in North Korea, Russia, Turkey.
You don't think its a big deal? And then you've got Biden who is basically a moderate republican/centrist and won't run the country like a failed casino with his kids in charge. I don't get it lol
Not sure I have your unfettered trust of the pharmaceutical industry, but yes, I'm also very grateful we have a lot of really smart scientists and companies working on vaccines and treatments. It's amazing.
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It’s summer. From what I’ve read it’s like 10-20x more likely that you get the virus indoors versus outdoors How much do we think the numbers are the season vs getting to “herd immunity” ? I’m inclined to think mostly the former. The south is ultra hot and people are inside at restaurants and bars and parties. Dumb, but they are. So cases will continue.
Personally what I’ve been expecting is a lull in cases in summer and then a rebound as we open schools, people spend time more indoors because of the cold in October and later. OTOH there’s a lot of vaccine candidates on horizon and will only be more as time moves on, and you have govt + fed backstop in trillions as necessary.
Hard to have too much of a opinionated view, so unless you think you’re some kind of market timing genius just stay long good businesses.
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New Fed policy is that it will be 1999 again for the next 5 years.
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Good topic. Tencent comes to mind.
I think Netflix is a bit of a different animal than FAAMG. Next Netflix? Spotify.
As far as smaller (like 1-10 billion market cap) companies that could get as big as US "big tech" I have no idea. From the names you mentioned, it seems you're thinking more along these lines than 150b companies going to 1 trillion. I guess the smaller ones make you more money.
Uber, Adyen, Shopify could get a lot larger.
Walmart market cap is 372 billion. McDonalds is 157 billion. Maybe some executive wants to do an Amazon and start productizing internal components of their non-tech companies as software or infrastructure.
Probably a bunch of chinese/indian tech cos that I'm ignorant of and would be worth mentioning.
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Sweden remained open throughout this crisis. The most likely explanation is herd immunity.
Cases in Sweden plummeted at the end of June. The most likely explanation is school closures and summer vacation.
Yep. Everyone in Sweden does lengthy vacations in summer often with lots of time in the outdoors / at a cabin somewhere. It's not exactly the conditions for spreading a virus.
https://www.thelocal.se/20180605/so-why-do-the-swedes-take-such-long-summer-holidays
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Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB
Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.
I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)
I meant "severity is falling" in regards to Portugal, as corroborated by this post:
https://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/coronavirus/msg425878/#msg425878
No comment on the virus's severity, I am certainly not qualified to opine on that.
Ahh, gotcha. Thanks. I have been following things less closely recently. I do expect "severity" goes down in some sense - as we continue to figure out what works for treatments and hopefully get some vaccines going at some point
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Looks like there was some abnormal excess mortality in Portugal & Spain, based on Euromomo. However these statistics lag by aprox 2 weeks. Recent reports indicate COVID severity is falling: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-portugal/portugal-reports-no-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-march-idUSKCN24Z1VB
Curious where you've seen 'severity falling?' Awesome news if so.
I'd read that it was unlikely for this virus to mutate/change too quickly (https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7)
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Mask-wearing by demographic: https://news.gallup.com/poll/315590/americans-face-mask-usage-varies-greatly-demographics.aspx
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It's hilarious that there are still people in this thread who after the previous 4-5 months basically think this virus is NBD. Good lord.
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Added to FB, MA, IAC
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bought some BRK calls. That 5% of Apple keeps getting bigger.
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Also interested in Dropbox (I own it).
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My suggestion is to set the politics section to mute and use the covid topic to update your "ignore" list. A covid thread with actual moderation would be pretty useful. I've given up and just moved to Twitter.
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Here is my prediction for Texas, Arizona and Florida next week:
Toilet paper will be sold out / hard to get. Same with guns most likely.
Do we know why there was such a lag between coastal city outbreaks -> Red states? I'm surprised it took this long to arrive.
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It seems to me that Trump has pretty much given up fighting the virus - the task force meetings ceased about 8 weeks ago (with one recent exception). I guess it is all up the Gouverneurs now.
Maybe he's bored of being President.
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Yes the guy has a cautious/bearish bias and that is something to keep in mind.
I’ve followed him for years now though and I get the sense that he’s unusually bearish this time. For instance in that 2010 article he says he’s trimming his equity positions very slowly and that high quality stocks should do fine or outperform. Whereas now he’s saying sell all your US stocks or even short the market. I’m not so sure if that is a good idea but he certainly has my attention.
Interesting interview. In the recent past, he has usually couched his bearishness a bit more. Saying things like "I think we're overvalued here, BUT I expect the trend could actually continue positively or get even more overvalued"
This was much more specific and declarative.
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
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recent buys: AMZN, FB, MSFT, V, ETSY, RBLX
Nothing special just tech and ad businesses!