DRValue

At the total capital level for unlimited dividends and 100pct of attributable earnings less a growth buffer of 2.5 billion are paid, which rough math may be 6.5billion for Fannie. If the yield on common is where it has been historically at 2.5pct that's about a 260b market cap. 20 billion shares gets you to 13 dollars a share. But these are just numbers which can change wildly.

Have we settled on what the capital requirement is yet? Could anyone clearly explain this to their boss?

When?

Based on the capital buffers that are needed before distributions, preferred ain't gonna trade at par unless they're converted. Better hope for conversion.

I want to say calabria is preparing for this to be walked down but I just don't know anymore. 10pct roe is very utility like.

Updating to Fannie's 15% expected forbearance expectation: $18b Fannie and $12b Freddie.

Sweeney court makes me suspicious.

https://ecf.cofc.uscourts.gov/doc1/01513723106 crappy argument and crappy opinion. given Fairholme and collins, this is no great loss. it is a shame Sweeney was spending her time on this and not on Washington federal. Thanks. You answered my next question too. :)

Anyone have a link to the arrowood dismissal?

And now we're at 5.6% www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/mortgage-bailout-balloons-by-half-a-million-more-loans-in-one-week.html And, does anyone know the fnf forbearance terms for recouping the 10's of billions they're now likely to pay?

And now we're at 5.6% www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/24/mortgage-bailout-balloons-by-half-a-million-more-loans-in-one-week.html

Is the confidence of Glen Bradford warranted or unwarranted? Cos this forbearance is starting to make me worry. Someone give me the confidence of GB stat!

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/very-ugly-setup-unemployment-claims-rise-missed-mortgage-payments-soar 4.9%

I have commented this before. Personally I dontt really see another way of definitely getting rid of all the lawsuits. And the instant recap takes so much time and work out of this while at the same time solving many problems.

Moelis weren't selected were they?

It was her turn, wasn't it.

I've made a point to listen for that. In all 3 interviews/articles in the past 10 days he has said "Congress" or "Fed" and hasn't mentioned "Treasury." He is making a point by excluding them as even a possibility. My thinking is that if treasury isn't mentioned, or rather the backstop, then there is no anticipation of a capital draw. Going to Congress is a wildcard but I expect it to be a further stimulus bill / bailout. What that entails is anyone's guess though.

I've made a point to listen for that. In all 3 interviews/articles in the past 10 days he has said "Congress" or "Fed" and hasn't mentioned "Treasury." He is making a point by excluding them as even a possibility. I think the honor system is a huge risk. Saying that, it's not a free lunch as it's added to the principal. Some might take advantage to spend the money today though, if they want to, or may use it as a cushion for another rainy day. I think take-up will be high, unfortunately.

We'd be fine in that scenario as we have the capital to cover it. My caution, and my worry in this whole situation, is the line I bolded above: (1) what "default" entails in this situation...same as "take-up" (those taking advantage of forbearance) or something different, and (2) if it's up in the 20-25% range instead of 5%, then it's a different story. With that said, Calabria said if the "take-up rate" is 20-25% we'd be fine... that's at the 2:20 mark of this video: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/01/chief-regulator-says-mortgage-bailout-is-on-the-honor-system.html Default, is 'take-up' yup. Sorry, I've seen some articles today calling them defaults. My guess is that capital and earnings can cover this. A timing mis-match would need a loan from the Fed, which is what I think Mark Calabria is talking about. Good to hear him say that they'd need Congress or the Fed rather than Treasury.

I really hope it is, but i doubt it.

Some quick and dirty math, help me figure out where I'm wrong please. Market share split of Fannie and Freddie - 60% Fannie, 40% Freddie. Median Monthly Mortgage Payment - $1,100 (https://www.thebalance.com/average-monthly-mortgage-payment-4154282) 5% of FnF book in 'Default' - 1.5m loans Duration - 6 months If I plug these numbers in, that makes FnF payments over 6 months of $9.9b, split 60/40 $6b Fannie and $4b Freddie.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-consequence-infectious-diseases-hcid#status-of-covid-19 Downgraded by the UK Gov. But not reported in the mainstream (to my knowledge), which seems appropriate as it would go someway to destroying all the important missing about isolation and all the efforts being taken by the Gov.

Tim P. seems to think preferred conversion adds 26 to 28 billion in capital. This appears to be the same mistake acg made, and Tim H. says conversion is capital neutral, which I agree with. Has Tim P. missed something? Seems pretty clear cut if preferred are classified as equity.

Do a combo order. Either they both fill simultaneously, or neither fill. Makes it less likely to execute, of course, but ensures you don't get on the wrong side of the spread on both. Do keep in mind the possibility that Fannie may exit conservatorship or have consent decree prior to Freddie. I currently only own Fannie prefs in part due to this, although all prefs should do well both Fannie and Freddie. Think i'll do this, take the tax loss and re balance. Cobf members should team up for some extras liquidity :-) Balanced FNMAS and FMCKJ, got more shares, and spread my risk too. Well done Orthopa! Overall I own more Fannie than Freddie still, but I'm OK with that.

Do a combo order. Either they both fill simultaneously, or neither fill. Makes it less likely to execute, of course, but ensures you don't get on the wrong side of the spread on both. Do keep in mind the possibility that Fannie may exit conservatorship or have consent decree prior to Freddie. I currently only own Fannie prefs in part due to this, although all prefs should do well both Fannie and Freddie. Think i'll do this, take the tax loss and re balance. Cobf members should team up for some extras liquidity :-)