blackcoffee

I agree with most longs here that the risk that the GSE are dismantled is very low. The reason, imo is that the GSE’s have been providing liquidity to the mortgage market for a long time, the system work and messing it up and hurting the housing market is not worth taking. I believe the risk for investors is that the politicians are incentivized to keep thing exactly how they are right now. The NWS is very profitable for the government, so I would not expect it to give it up without an adverse ruling that absolutely forces them to do so. I've never understood the "NWS is very profitable for the government" argument. The key players in the executive branch are made up of elected officials who will serve either 4 or 8 years. Surely monetizing the warrants and receiving $100-150bn today is more useful to an elected official than $20bn per year paid to an entity that they will no longer be part of after 4-8 years? You don't understand how scraping money into perpetuity at $20B/year is better for an entity than $100B today? hmmm I would like to sell you some insurance.

so isn't it kinda weird that they just stopped this call 1/2 way thru? That was the UFOs that's one way to avoid Q&A wait how did they have a Q&A if the presentation stopped??? They just kept going with questions from where? oh see they didn't avoid Q&A they just wanted to control how the Q&A went... I see .. that's one way to do it! I'm sure no one will notice.

Why does anyone give a rat's ass what David Stevens wants? I don't. If our most vocal and potentially influential (Corker, Warner, Stevens, etc.) opposition is backing off/compromising in a way that is beneficial to prefs (and maybe common), I think that's noteworthy. yes but satisfying him shouldn't matter to anyone.

Why does anyone give a rat's ass what David Stevens wants? I don't.

There was audio for most of the presentation if you called the number e-mailed at time of registration. But the audio got cut off. the entire call was just ended. They didn't get thru all the slides and thereby avoided any Q&A... wildly transparent stuff.

so isn't it kinda weird that they just stopped this call 1/2 way thru? That was the UFOs that's one way to avoid Q&A

so isn't it kinda weird that they just stopped this call 1/2 way thru?

I don’t get what Freddie/Fannie receivership and affordable housing have to do with each either. They are two separate issues. On the contrary, I think they are closely related. My view of the situation is that those Republicans that want FnF dead for ideological reasons (Hensarling is the most vocal) is because they think government should not be involved in affordable housing. More specifically, they think that government money should not be involved. See Hensarling going off the rails when Watt had FnF contribute to affordable housing funds in Q1 2018 even as they were taking a draw from Treasury due to DTA writedowns. Affordable housing mandates are in FnF's charters, and a run through receivership would allow Congress to draft new charters for the companies, probably conforming to those of full private-sector companies with no duty to serve low-income people seeking housing. To me it's hilarious that anyone's view would be predicated on ideology and actually believe that the people who are paid directly by the banks to say these things that are bank friendly think they actually care at all AT ALL about some ideology. It's laughable. Why do you think any of these politicians have any shred of credibility left?

this is a vague anti-lobbying rule and likely an infringement on free speech rights, certainly of the individual if not also the institution. Infinitely hypocritical that Joe Light would ever call anyone out for illegal lobbying. How about lobbying under the guise of journalism? What's the law say about that. Absolute farce.

except i didnt see the judge concerned with nationalization buying it And wouldn't that argument be analogous to something like: "I didn't steal your property, I just took it but I could return it under some nebulous circumstances thus absolving me of theft". as i recall this was from ms wright, treasury counsel, who was hardly inspiring confidence. it was a very weak response, which only added to her lack of credibility imo You are all correct. But we better be lucky. Does anyone know why the FHFA and Treasure are still fighting hard in these courts if they're friendly to shareholders in their future plans? Isn't a court win a good windfall for Mnuchin's shareholder friendly plan? Why aren't they weakening their stances? yes because there is no real difference between the 2 major political parties when it comes to banks. They are captured by them thanks to hanky p and the bailouts. that's the short answer. Trump isn't the savior here only the courts and they're all punting and delaying. Rampant corruption is the answer you're looking for and a lack of consequences for said corruption.

Well, the housing market != the real estate market. The housing market is part of the RE market. And you can happily build and sell offices, hotels, casinos and even luxury condos without ever worrying about the GSEs. Not trying to start an argument here ... just saying. The Donald is so self-focussed and absorbed that it would not be surprising at all, not only that he's got no idea about this, but also that he doesn't actually care. It's also worth noting that no one actually knows what his net worth is since he refuses to disclose anything. Anyone hocking worthless for profit colleges and steaks and simply licensing their name as a brand is unlikely to be a billionaire.. just because a building is called Trump whatever doesn't mean he owns the building, in fact in many cases he just lends his name to the development for a fee. Which maybe is worth more now that he somehow got into the white house but the fact that he's a national embarrassment basically from top to bottom should impair that. But who knows!! People seem to be really stupid.

Emily, it's probably against the rules of this website to copy a previous post of yours, delete the original, and then re-post it so it shows up as the most recent post. That's happened at least 3 times with the post I've quoted above. Keep in mind that the fundamental concept of value investing is to find something that should be at $X but instead is trading at a discount. I understand your frustration, but security prices staying low for a lot longer (or forever) than one would hope or think is part of the process. I have a question (note I'm not emily's 2nd secret account) I just have a question. At what point does it become problematic that the entire gov't and 100% of the media is lying to the public about this subject and has been for an entire decade while the public is on the hook for it? I would think people here, while I'm sure are feeling beat down, wouldn't be so quick to berate others pointing out the inequities that have persisted for so long. We're supposedly a country where the rule of law is equally applied. Thusfar the justice system has done nothing to convince me of that in my LIFETIME. Not just this case but everywhere I look. When the going gets tough the judges seem to get paid under the table or coerced into rulings that benefit the gov't. So yes it isn't helpful to keep bringing up the same crimes over and over but it's worth remembering that at some point, if we continue down this path, our institutions are going to face votes of no confidence top to bottom. We must reverse course or else. I think it is important to remind everyone of the context here from time to time. This is supposed to be America. You realize that people are waking up to the fact they have 0 political efficacy right?

Emily, it's probably against the rules of this website to copy a previous post of yours, delete the original, and then re-post it so it shows up as the most recent post. That's happened at least 3 times with the post I've quoted above. Keep in mind that the fundamental concept of value investing is to find something that should be at $X but instead is trading at a discount. I understand your frustration, but security prices staying low for a lot longer (or forever) than one would hope or think is part of the process. I have a question (note I'm not emily's 2nd secret account) I just have a question. At what point does it become problematic that the entire gov't and 100% of the media is lying to the public about this subject and has been for an entire decade while the public is on the hook for it? I would think people here, while I'm sure are feeling beat down, wouldn't be so quick to berate others pointing out the inequities that have persisted for so long. We're supposedly a country where the rule of law is equally applied. Thusfar the justice system has done nothing to convince me of that in my LIFETIME. Not just this case but everywhere I look. When the going gets tough the judges seem to get paid under the table or coerced into rulings that benefit the gov't. So yes it isn't helpful to keep bringing up the same crimes over and over but it's worth remembering that at some point, if we continue down this path, our institutions are going to face votes of no confidence top to bottom. We must reverse course or else. I think it is important to remind everyone of the context here from time to time. This is supposed to be America. Oh stop it. You're just trying to get rich easily and are upset its not playing out. wait am I crazy or was that not an answer the question? That was an attack on me!?!? What's that in Latin?

Emily, it's probably against the rules of this website to copy a previous post of yours, delete the original, and then re-post it so it shows up as the most recent post. That's happened at least 3 times with the post I've quoted above. Keep in mind that the fundamental concept of value investing is to find something that should be at $X but instead is trading at a discount. I understand your frustration, but security prices staying low for a lot longer (or forever) than one would hope or think is part of the process. I have a question (note I'm not emily's 2nd secret account) I just have a question. At what point does it become problematic that the entire gov't and 100% of the media is lying to the public about this subject and has been for an entire decade while the public is on the hook for it? I would think people here, while I'm sure are feeling beat down, wouldn't be so quick to berate others pointing out the inequities that have persisted for so long. We're supposedly a country where the rule of law is equally applied. Thusfar the justice system has done nothing to convince me of that in my LIFETIME. Not just this case but everywhere I look. When the going gets tough the judges seem to get paid under the table or coerced into rulings that benefit the gov't. So yes it isn't helpful to keep bringing up the same crimes over and over but it's worth remembering that at some point, if we continue down this path, our institutions are going to face votes of no confidence top to bottom. We must reverse course or else. I think it is important to remind everyone of the context here from time to time. This is supposed to be America.

What other incentive do you see away from the warrants FOR the gov't that would out do $100B? Personal incentives. These guys want to get re-elected. Handing over the secondary mortgage market to the large banks -> fundraising from the large banks for the next election cycle. oh so systemic corruption due to extremely weak campaign finance laws. Got it. I've written this before but I'll repeat it. Indignation is not an investment thesis. Truth hurts right? I was simply pointing out a reality of the situation which should tell people to run away from investing at all in the twins. Which is something I wish I'd done prior to February of last year but here we are waiting for the next explosion. Clearly the political class has been coerced into doing the bidding of their largest contributors, pointing that out doesn't make it any less true and does not constitute an investment thesis but somehow you got there on my behalf. Impressive.

What other incentive do you see away from the warrants FOR the gov't that would out do $100B? Personal incentives. These guys want to get re-elected. Handing over the secondary mortgage market to the large banks -> fundraising from the large banks for the next election cycle. oh so systemic corruption due to extremely weak campaign finance laws. Got it.

What other incentive do you see away from the warrants FOR the gov't that would out do $100B?

I've often found the olds like to pretend that hard work and their skills somehow make them great. I'd argue that they just got the money first, before it was inflated into dogshit. Don't take my word for it. ask ole Druck - he's probably a little higher level than the msg board folk.

how is Watt good? simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist. I don't think that makes his presiding over the draining of capital at the companies any better. Oh good I wrote a paper that gave you political cover! Oh wow thanks! Good job stealing all the money for the goverment for a decade.

how is Watt good?

I'm sure they're misrepresenting material information to the courts... whoops sorry no that's what the defendants do in these cases.. sorry I got my wires crossed.

they go out of their way to say nothing of substance at all congressional hearings. Who is really in control here?

removal of implicit guarantee. addition of a paid-for explicit guarantee (mnuchin's stated preference in front of congress). competition in some form. HUD-FHA adjustments. other things i'm not thinking of. quite the laundry list, which is why he wants to wait for 2019 legislatively. I believe mnuchin and phillips when they say they will wait for 2019. In the mean time, we drift and hope for a brave and moral judge to stand strong and/or some modest 4th amendment which stops or slows the sweep and buys time. What a country we've become where people have to hope for a brave and moral judge....

Yes that is called lying. Intellectual dishonesty is rampant with the UI and AEI and really most of these places that purport to be experts. They're being paid to lie. That's all it is.

I disagree that those are the binary options. Though I would love to see them attempt to wind them down. The clowns that run the FHFA appear to have little idea of the fire they're playing with. Further, I couldn't care less what politicians want. It saddens me that people are still laboring under the delusion that pols actually want things rather than just being pass thru entities for the desires of their owners (who happen to be the banks in many cases golly gee whiz). Citizens United really just cemented that. I'd say follow the money, but you can't now.