nickenumbers
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Posts posted by nickenumbers
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Something else to consider. Buffett has been clearly saying that the businesses they are being offered for outright purchase have not been at prices they are willing to pay. Relative to what? Berkshire Hathaway shares. I suppose they are watching the delta and it could soon be “obvious” in Munger’s words. It’s been their script forever to judge deals with the next best one. One day the best one could be their own stock.
Wow, that is an interesting flip of the analysis. I hope that is the case and BRK is willing to repurchase.
Spekulatius also has some great points. I am measuring success by closing the differential between IV and quoted Share price, and Buffett is assumed to be looking longer than that and focusing on increasing long term IV... I think I am a little like the fan at the baseball park screaming "Would you SWING already... you BUM!!! SWING!!"
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Cubsfan does have me thinking.
Related, perhaps they are waiting on another 2008 crash and they are going to repurchase a significant number of shares then... I kinda buy it but I would like to see them dial up the repurchase now, and should there be a significant down turn, they buy like crazy.. I think they are still limited by the daily trading volume.
They had a chance in 2008 and they didn't take it. I get that times change and their options/alternatives have changed..
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All,
I want your input, but I would prefer not to debate the premise in this topic as I really want to understand what you guys think.
Given Assumptions-
1. Assume that BRK.B is worth say $250 per share (IV).
2. Currently trading around $209 per share.
3. Lets ignore the China/US current events on trade.
How does Berkshire close the gap between it's traded price and it's intrinsic value???
If it were a smaller company folks could attempt a tender offer or take a significant position and wage some type of proxy battle.
Or if WEB and CM believed there was value and timing, they would just go ALA Singleton [Teledyne], and start buying up shares. Share repurchase.
If someone had big gigantic chutzpah they would take over/gain control and auction off the parts.
What else?
Perhaps when WEB or CM checks out to the big hotel in the sky, they are going to get off that gigantic pile of cash and finally start repurchasing shares.
Or, perhaps, I just need a bit more PATIENCE while WEB and CM play their hand.
What thoughts do the great members of COBF land have??
Thank you.
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We all agree that WEB will certainly get asked A buyback question, and probably several of them rephrased. They will be influenced by the number of additional shares that were/were not repurchased over the previous months.
I would love to hear your Singleton question. Singleton was really impressive.
However, Buffett is the master of side stepping those hard questions. He says a little of what you want and then he does some verbal jiu jitsu stuff and we are all sitting there with heads spinning. He won't say anything that he doesn't want to say.
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I have recently been introduced to Sanjay Bakshi's work and videos and I am a FAST FAN. Those of you who have been following him know what I am talking about.
He is an outstanding mind, and has a rock solid foundation in Value Investing.
Below is a link to a recent talk he gave about 7 Practical Uses of Mathematics, and it is almost entirely a value investing focus.
I hope you all enjoy it as much as I did:
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That video was freaking amazing! I am really impressed. With that amount of autonomy an engineering in place, I am surprised that McLane is not performing better.
Really impressive!
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This has been a good continued discussion and I have enjoyed it.
I do not assume anything nefarious with the BRK potential purchases from The Gates Foundation. Nothing of the kind. I am confident it would be on the up and up.
BUT, CAN SOMEONE PLEASE TELL ME WHEN ANY PRIVATE PARTY SHARE PURCHASE WOULD BE REPORTED? WOULD IT BE AT THE END OF THE TRADING DAY AS SOME SUPPLEMENTAL REPORTING Date OR SOMETHING ELSE.
How would any above board purchase of a large block of shares directly from another be made known to the public?
Thanks.
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This might have already have been discussed, but it was a little obscure to me and so I didn't want to attempt to search the thread.
If BRK was to repurchase shares directly from a shareholder with a large position, like THE GATES Foundation:
[*]When BRK transfers money to The Gates Foundation [or their stock agent] in exchange for the shares, would the transaction have to be reported into the public markets at the end of the day?
[*]If not at the end of the day when would it have to be reported?
[*]Can some thoughtful person speculate if there would be strategy to tranfering the money at the end of some period or reporting date so as to benefit BRK? What strategy might there be in the timing of the purchase?
In common old Virginia talk- If BRK is buying from The Gates foundation $2B a week for 10 weeks, when and how will we know? If BRK doesn't want to tip its hand, does it just wait until the end of some regulated deadline and do the transfer for $20B at the last minute? Why? So as to not bid up the price and force BRK to potentially pay more?
Thank you in advance Super Brains of CoBF.
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For those interested in a career in basketball, people who studied Micheal Jordan have come up with 21 steps on how to become like him:
https://www.incomediary.com/how-to-be-like-mike-20-life-lessons-from-michael-jordan
The mathematical model is coming soon.
Cigarbutt, the Michael Jordan link is got me laughing so hard, I am going to S..t myself. Forget this investing stuff. Now that basketball has been made simple in 20 EASY steps, I am going to start working on those.
It will be a Cinch. Look for a 5 foot 6, finance guy playing for the NBA Washington Wizards in about 12 months.
PS- Step 4 is practice, but there is no step to tell me how to Slam Dunk or Alley-oop. Maybe I will Google the 4 easy steps to Alley-oop in just 30 days.. ;)
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Master Oogway-
You must give up the illusion of control.
Let go of your earthly tether
Enter the void
Become wind
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/975/870/ebc.gif
LC, you crack me up. And that GIF was freaking funny!! Grasshoppa, can you snatch the pebble from my hand?
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Master Oogway-
You must give up the illusion of control.
When the path you walk always leads back to yourself, you never get anywhere.
Life is a struggle, and it was not designed to be easy. Libery, Rkbabang, Rukawa and Writser offer good counsel.
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Wow. Great discussion. I am a finance guy and I have not heard it articulated as well as you all did.
Special Kudos to DTEJD1997 and Read the Footnotes for your inputs.
"Old moats are getting filled in and new moats are harder to predict, so it's getting harder." Charlie Munger
As DTEJD1997 pointed out in the cost cutting example, ability to raise price because of your moat is critical for long term success.. Otherwise the company looks like a race horse, but it is more like a goat. And you can't win the long term race on a goat.
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I don't recognize many of the names. I am going to better understand who all of the people are who gave interviews and proceed thru them.
Here is my initial top list of folks that I am going to focus on:
Michael Burry, Cornwall Capital • MP3 (Completed, very good interview.)
John Paulson, Paulson & Co. • MP3 (Completed, very good interview.)
Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs • MP3
Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway • MP3
Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase • MP3
Hank Greenberg, American International Group, Inc. (Part 1-3) • MP3
Bill Gross, PIMCO • MP3
George Soros, Soros Fund Management, LLC • MP3
John Stumpf, Wells Fargo • MP3
Paul Volcker, Federal Reserve Board • MP3
Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Board • MP3
Yesterday I heard the term Hypothecation during an interview. [New to me.] I am now able to amaze and impress my friends with the new term. I am going to try the term on my beautiful wife and see what it gets me.... ;-]
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This is a great resource. I happened on the Michael Burry [The Big Short Investor] FCIC interview below and it is really good. Not just about how he figured out his trade but about his psychology and opinion of Wall Street, Banks, Government, and other investors.
But, MR.B's post includes all of the interviews. <Amazing Resource>
Here is the individual Dr. Michael Burry interview:
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Book Rec's?
in Books
I am presently reading Guns, Germs and Steel. Charlie Munger recommendation.
I have recently read and enjoyed- The Undoing Project, Chaos Monkeys and Outsiders by Thorndyke.
Non-business- Clockwork Orange and The Great Gatsby [i am catch up on a few classics that I missed.].
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I have read the first book, most of the memos, and I am about 1/2 way thru the new book, Mastering Market Cycle.
I agree with what has already been said about this new book. It is a little slower for me as I am familiar with Marks thoughts and ideas.
Now, I am a huge fan of Howard Marks. He is brilliant, and gifted as a teacher. He can explain complex economics and ideas in a way that I fine simple and effective. He is a MASTER!
The fact that he took the time to write a book, compels me to read it. The time that I invest in reading the book would have otherwise been spent on less valuable pursuits, like Game of Thrones and Reality TV. ;-]
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John, thanks for sharing this link to Austin Value. I am SUPER impressed with the Michael Burry letters. I know who he is from The Big Short, but his letters are OUTstanding! Great resource!
There is also Joel's monster Buffett compilation made available on the Austin Value Capital website and on Twitter.
That sucker of a file [4,821 pages [<-!]] is a compilation of everything Buffett: partnership letters, Berkshire Hathaway letters, annual meeting transcripts, memos, and articles.
The file is a searchable pdf-file, with a directory. Use the directory to find the first AGM transcript and place the cursor in the beginning of that transcript, and you can thereby use the search function to search through all transcripts in the file.
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Guys,
Based on a quick DCF, making loads of assumptions, I arrive at a B share value around $230. I am being more conservative than not, to be honest. And, I ignore the marketable securities loss. I took the value of the securities at $173B and assumed 5% return added to the operating company FCF.
I think the assumed growth rate of FCF over the next 10 years has the most variability on the value, but based on a quick and dirty of the FCF reported today, I end up a little above $230.
I am a fan, and so I could believe a story that gets the per share price significantly higher than that, for sure..
I will put on my helmet now and let you guys CLUB me.
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Thanks GFP. Really appreciate it.
CoBF is an outstanding community!!
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If it is permitted, would someone provide the PDF shareholders letter. I am having a devil of a time getting it with all of the server demand.
Thanks.
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Wow.. That put the electronic/microscopic science "smart meter" into the RED. But, I loved it!
I didn't understand the micro level of semiconductors, but I got the big picture concepts. Very interesting explanation, slides, and the speaker kept it moving.
Liberty, I don't know how or where you found that video, but Thanks for Sharing it!
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What is the answer to why the experiment using the best idea of each PM every year did not work?
I think I’ve heard Charlie say that the reason it didn’t work is that each manager picked the idea they had done the most work on. He was illustrating a bias that we supposedly have to value most what we have invested the most in. In this case time.
Rod is correct. And human nature being what it is, we cease to be objective, rational and detached/open. We become the man with the hammer seeing most situations as a Nail [our solution]. Better to be open to other ideas, or open to change our own mind even though we have fallen in love with the work that we did to prove our conclusion. Facts and results make us Right. People agreeing with us does not make us right and love of our idea does not make us right. Only Facts/Results.
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Amen! Parsad and I are OUT!
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$10B amount. Good questions guys. You guys might know the annual limit, I was just guessing at a reasonable number.
I know we are limited by daily volume, % that BRK is allowed to purchase, etc I understand that they can purchase from large holders also.
My quick logic was that they purchased $2B before, and if they were to purchase $2-3B per quarter = $8-12B per year.
Their largest holding presently in their public company holdings is with Apple for $42B. If BRK was to purcahse $10B per year, it would take them 4 years to get to this level.
I understand that they could tender offer, etc. Buffett is a value guy at heart and he likes to accumulate without giving up his value arbitrage advantage. [He prefers not to tender offer, as he would have to specify his upper price.]
What do you guys think the reasonable upper limit is? Thanks!
How to Increase Berkshire Share Price?
in Berkshire Hathaway
Posted
You guys have some great, wonderful, outstanding opinions and thoughts. Exceeding my expectations.
You are my TRIBE!
I have another question. Is it the 13-f or 13-d that we are waiting to come out from BRK?
When will it come out? 5/14, 5/15 or 5/16?
Will said form [13-f or 13-d] have any note of the outstanding A and B shares of BRK at the time of the form issue [For example 5/15/19], like the 10K has a note of the outstanding shares at the time of issue of the 10-k?
I am basically trying to see if we will be able to determine if BRK repurchased any of its own shares in the last 2 weeks.
Thanks.