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tol1

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Everything posted by tol1

  1. Tx - Not sure what you are referring to, but steel production (Europe) is growing.
  2. Well, you have certain thresholds depending on the country for long positions, but they are at higher thresholds (3% / 5%). Short positions you can fairly easy pull.
  3. Thanks, he has a great track record, indeed. Are you referring to Marathon Asset Management? Don't they only do credit and RE?
  4. Under standing the demand/supply dynamics and industry players better. More about the implied economics and understanding the cycle. Wiki is not quite there yet.
  5. Keen to hear about more longer-term oriented fundamental investors in equities in London. Thanks
  6. Hey, looking for good primers on steel and aluminium markets, production and by-products. Can anyone recommend decent reports? Thanks
  7. Quality on VIC used to be significantly better years ago. Nowadays, members just post something quickly to remain member. Many small-cap and illiquid ideas. Also, I have seen some write-ups on investments I had made before. There have been mistakes and I would suggest to do your own work. Pulling a full-blown idea from VIC for interviews is outright lazy btw (unless you just get the ticker and do your own thinking / work). They used to have 250 members, so no surprise applications get rejected all the time.
  8. Hey, As one of the initial steps of my research process I look at the industry in-depth. There is some well-known concentrated industries in Europe and that include companies such as Airbus and LVMH. Are there others including more niche areas that you have looked into and liked?
  9. I had a go with the excess return and EPV method in a mature, competitive industry. As per excess return method the implied value was in line with the current share price, whereas the EPV showed a value 30% below the current price. To me it seems that the methods only work for businesses with a LT historically stable margin / asset base.
  10. Does anyone know Orbis and or Oldfield Partners? In particular, annualized return since inception, culture, etc. - thanks
  11. Thanks all - I concur that the concept is very good (on paper), in particular, the method of deriving a margin of safety. - Do you use appraisers for assessing the reproduction value? In particular, PP&E excluding land and Greenwald's goodwill adjustments by adding a multiple of SG&A are subjective IMO. - Regarding the EPV I am sceptical as historical earnings, even if they were consistent, do not necessarily apply going forward. Usually, there is a reason why a stock is cheap, and that is that the future ability to achieve the same level of earnings is impaired.
  12. Hey, Some of you may have come across the EPV method to derive an adjusted NAV and so called earnings power value. Greenwald is one of the advocates of the method. I like the concept, but still struggle with it from a practical point of view: 1. Reproduction value: heavily depends on assumptions, ideally done by appraisers 2. EPV: starts off with a 'sustainable' operating profit; simply taking historical averages can skew valuation results heavily and I rather understand how P&L drivers impact the profit in the next 2-3 years instead of relying on historical means What are your thoughts on those 2 points and if so, how do you apply the EPV method?
  13. Hey, Plenty of well known US fundamental long/short equity investors, but what about European ones based in London? TCI, Egerton and Lansdowne fall into the category - anyone else with a rather concentrated portfolio?
  14. Appreciate if anyone has some practical knowledge in this equity capital markets area. Thanks
  15. Hey, A company is likely to raise equity in a large amount (30% of market cap) and has 1 large shareholder (20%) on its register. A few questions please: - How does a company decide whether to do a rights issue or a capital increase? Can the large shareholder block either? - Does the discount of either to the current share price differ? - How much is a usual discount in both processes? - A 3-for-10 rights issue implies the share count increases by 30%. Does that mean that the EPS automatically decreases by 30% at the same time? Thank you
  16. Tx - all fair / relevant points, in particular regarding Co-PMs. At the ending of the day there is so many moving parts that can lead to one not accepting an offer. Hence, I may opt for starting my own fund at some point.
  17. Tx - Anything regarding the structure of the fund itself? Is there certain red flags when it comes to discretion and or profit sharing?
  18. I think you may have misread my post. I am an investor myself and may join a start-up hedge fund.
  19. It is a relatively small industry per strategy and people reach out.
  20. Hi everyone, I am speaking to start-up hedge funds (I am a fundamental equities investor) that I could potentially join as Partner and was wondering what the key questions are. So far, I have focused on LP composition, overall size and lock-up for LPs, discretion for me, profit share, investment strategy and work streams, and vision. Appreciate every comment or advice. Thanks
  21. I want to look at AMZN on a country-by-country level and get data such as number of items offered, number of AMZN prime members, price comparisons vs peers by country etc. - Anyone come across a reliable provider or source? Thanks
  22. Am looking for a reliable source for data on European hedge funds / investment firms that invest in public equities. If there is any please let me know. Thanks
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