Myth465

Thanks, when things slow down I plan to dig into this, Sears, and LUK.

What do you mean about incentive? Are they too focused on finding the next big thing? I dont know, Microsoft has spent the last ten years earning there way out of overvaluation (aided by a share price drop). Now they are a value play but will they pay a bigger dividend and act like it. This is a sucky business strategy but they should partner on things and give up on search and phones. No real work will be done on phones for quite a while and no one is switching to bing (unless Google stumbles over privacy issues), or doing any real value added work on phones. Microsoft lost cool along time ago (minus the xbox), and is a Corporate company. Open office is more of a threat then Google Docs. Every major corporation has key pieces of there finanals based on real old excel files. They wont want to put those online and probably wont want to switch over to something free. Its just not worth it. First go non profits and cheap people (schools, and me), then the masses, then finally after quite a while the corporations.

I believe he is saying that a currency needs to grow as wealth does, and gold is not likely to keep up due to it being so scarce. Its a pretty simple argument. I dont think you will find even 1 person on this board who thinks holding dollars is a viable investment option so you can drop that straw man. Also as he said a little inflation keeps the masses at ease, even I (who I consider fairly intelligent) likes a 3 percent raise year over year. I would be pissed if the CEO or CFO said the currency is stable and there is no inflation so we decided to keep your earnings flat.

and because old people run businesses, the kids they hire will have to adapt and learn to love MSFT. :D Lol I agree, this is a large cap I would love to own. I just know they will blow that cash flow. They should put the business in run off and just acquire smart small caps. I bet they wise they had bought google when it was 10 - 20 billion. I think all of these companies are chasing the next big thing which may not come. I get the thesis on tablets, and phones but think we will always have PCs, at least for the next 20 years just due to the way corporate business is done. Outside of design companies, most making over $75,000 - $100,000 have to use windows in there day to day lives and are usually too old to try anything else out. I am 27 and my MS phone just broke, and it pains me to have to figure out Android (it would take all of 2 weeks to get used to it). When I am 50 it just wont happen.

Looks like we have dilution of $85 million. The question is, is it at $5, $10, $15, or $20. At $15 and above it seems ok, but below that is quite painful. I need more details, but am not sure how to view this. I am guessing Appleseed may be lending them the cash, since they own 10% or so. I hope its 10% yield at with a convert at $15 - $20. They would be giving up alot but a new shareholder would do well. Anyone who bought at $20 would be pissed. Those with a basis of $5 would be fairly happy. I would hope for them to take the cash, pay down debt, and pay a dividend of 20 - 40 cents to allow for the share price to recover. I hoped they would have gotten a waiver, and then pay a dividend of 45 cents, and then sell shares at $15 - $20 which would be about the same. Hopefully we dont get raped on the terms. The stock should take a dive tomorrow. Interesting times. http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/100830/20100830006512.html?.v=1

Do you plan on buying vanilla shares?

Microsoft seems retardedly cheap. Its at 7.5 - 8 x CF. The question is what will they do with that cash, I get the Ipad and Google Docs thing but if you were to put the business in run off, I think they would do just fine. The only problem is they will likely do something stupid with that cash at some point. I think search and phones are both a lost cause. There moat is that old people run businesses and old people wont change.

I am looking to buy back FFH (now that Hurricane season is passing and they are fully hedged) and dont mind the shares, but would prefer 2 year leaps. Are these going out to 2012 or 2013 going to be available at any point. If they are in Canada how can a US investor buy them.

Here you go http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/trillianmedia/JVWE/~5/C6RoLAyUnLs/WealthTrack_709_08-27-10.mp3

Bruce Berkowitz talked about Bank of America, and its peaked my interest. I may have to start looking at the banks / warrants as a small speculative play. The still seem like big black boxes to me though.

You can now download the interview. I am listening to it now instead of studying.

Lol This should say either you agree or you dont. I dont. Gold has a value just like corn, wheat, or labor but its not money to the vast majority of people walking around today. Im agnostic towards it from an investment perspective, but I would venture to say you are the minority in this argument.

Not me. I think Ashner wrote Concord down to zero to get everyone off his back. I view it as a free option. It seemed like a good idea, but they were too early. I believe they think it still has value but dont want it weighing down on the stock. I cant value it and consider it a free option, but doubt its worth zero. I also think it helped them get a leg up on the loan transactions and NY realty asset. They bought a few performing loans from Concord at a pretty good rate. I also dont really like the earlier Partnership investments. They consume a good chunk of capital but throw off very little cash. FUR was cheap at $8 - $9 when I bought it, and I like the loan transactions they have been doing. First REITs, then Senior Securities, and now Loans (performing and non performing). I plan to monitor them and will sell if things go South. They were mostly right. They raised cash and were waiting for a crash and are now putting capital to work in interesting ways and with smart people.

Texas has more pro teams than any other state. I think that has more to do with Texas (isnt everything bigger / more) then Hockey. Its probably just too hot in Houston. Ice / Snow are both confusing and scary for us. Though it is snowing 1 day a year down here fairly consistently.

Smallcap you have a beautiful family. Makes settling down not look so bad.

In todays word I dont think a strong dollar has the value it used to. Everyone wants a weak currency in this export driven world.

I like you guys, but Hockey just isnt a real sport below the Mason–Dixon line.

Parsad you are quite the busy man, you remind me of Sokol. You do more in the morning then I probably do all week. I like Travel (its about time for another trip), Cooking, Working Out, and Learning new things.

Thanks for the link. I think we have the right Jockey for this segment.

You beat me to it. Should be interesting. Also you can typically stream it on Saturday.

I dont think Sokol would sell Mid American.

I think Pabrai has it right / Zeke has it right. Diversity inmo depends on the number of options. I want at least 10 holdings and would prefer 20 with the top 5 making up 50% - 60% of my portfolio.

I agree with the sentiment of your post, but tend to side with the bears. I am 80% invested and will continue to hold my stocks. The issue for me is things are fairly uncertain (arent they always) and I dont see a large number of no brainers. There are plenty of dcent value ideas with 10% FCF yields but I want 20%. I aim to be rationale and think 10% return on cash is good for the risk of equities so naturally I want to buy at 20% FCF (taken from Pabrai) and sell for a double at 10% FCF to a guy who still gets a decent return. I hold a few stocks which appear to have a 20% FCF (KSP, ATSG, LNET, BYD.TO) or appear to be good asset plays with catalysts (SD, ATPG, ESV), or feature owner managers who hold or can find cash to keep investing in the downturn (FUR, L, LRE, SSW, FFH (will buy soon enough)). The issue at hand is each one of these companies (except for L, FFH, FUR, and LRE) is slightly damaged and I hold all I want. I dont see any real no brainer cant lose ideas (except for maybe FFH if you ignore the insurance risks). I think Americans are just starting to wake up to risks and are getting worried / annoyed again. They have had 10 years of no returns and always get shaken out of the market so they miss the recovery. I think many will continue selling if things continue to remain jittery and may exit the market for quite a while. I think one should be investing, but given the situation one must have great ideas to invest in. I dont see many of those, so why buy? Coke, JNJ, Wells Fargo, MSFT, GE, and others at 8% - 12% FCF yield wont make anyone rich. They will do a great job of protecting wealth though. I dont have wealth to protect, so I will wait for 2 - 5 x FCF with little risk before I part with the last 20% of my cash. Let me know if you have any recommendations.

Thanks Geoff, also I really enjoyed the Borders series. Regards,

I also own PVD. I think I found out about this based on posts on this board??? May have been you??? I like the moat of the business. Chile is growing fast (some say its very overheated), but long term should be solid. I picked up around 46. Earlier this year. At 54 now, +$3 dividend. I think Harry brought it up first. I plan to look into it and EBIX a bit more.