Myth465

why would MSFT do it. Do to rates being low? They have so much cash, but I can understand if you can borrow at less than 4%

What would you tell that boy today? I'd tell him to set up a server in NJ colocated with the exchanges and let it make the money for the class. Hold shares for nanoseconds, buy and sell at the same price, and collect your quarter cent per share each way. Lol - I am not quite doing that. But can see where you are coming from.

What would you tell that boy today?

I used to own PennWest a few years back and sold due to a lack of direction. I made a bit of money because I bought right after the trust tax announcement I like Nunns, and like how they are refocusing. I am however not a big fan of the CEO. While I owned it the company had no vision and kept selling shares to pay the dividends. They also kept talking about Peace River but had no real plans to develop it. The swift towards a Corporation, and away from a dividend and towards growth should do well for them. With that said, I prefer ATPG and SD because they have great near term catalysts and are dirt cheap from an asset perspective. I will have to relook at PWE though. It has popped up a bit on Gurufocus and now here.

It all spends the same, as long as I get 20% - I am a happy camper. My bet is on 2 and 3 at this point, BRK is too big.

I dont think the end is near (I keep food on a just in time bases, dont own a gun, and have no gold) and I would never bet against America - but I am not optimistic. What you said is true but America has been coasting on its past accomplishments for quite sometime. We were and might still be the Greatest nation (in terms of opportunity, and accomplishments), my question is will be still looking out 50 years? I think we will muddle through, but I am not seeing sanity out of Washington nor the electorate. Winston Churchill had it right - “You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else.” We are working through some options, and will eventually get it right. We will muddle through, but I dont think it will be pretty.

I see it happening now. The US just looks different, feels different, and smells different (it also has more honest accounting). In my opinion though its the same s[it, dispute the different smell. Basically its not paying for the Government and services you have (or want), and as the poster a few posts above said - screwing the tax payers (yourself). You want lower taxes, fine do it by demanding lower services, but no one does that. Everyone feels they are overtaxed but under-served. The liberals are well liberals (at least they want to pay for things), and the Conservative party platform is starve the beast (basically pushing us into a Greece like situation where we have to cut). People complain about the deficits but then want to extend 10 year old tax cuts for those who need it the least. One cant be a true fiscal hawk, yet want there tax cuts, no can they. It seems that ideology trumps sanity. This is one of my favorites. From Alexander Tyler. No, he wasn't writing about the United States. This quote is well over one hundred years old. Tyler was writing about the fall of the Athenian Republic. "A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury, with the result that a democracy always collapses over loose fiscal policy followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's great civilizations has been two hundred years. These nations have progressed through the following sequence: from bondage to spiritual faith, from spiritual faith to great courage, from courage to liberty, from liberty to abundance, from abundance to selfishness, from selfishness to complacency from complacency to apathy, from apathy to dependency, from dependency back to bondage." I would say we are towards the end of that list of things. Greece to her credit has probably made it round trip 2-3 times and is working its way around 3rd base again.

My understanding is the cash is trapped abroad. I think WD can buy there way into SSD, and I see the business as a Oligarchy type business. I don't think it is as commodity as most people think. You cant just tell Dell or HP you want to make HDDs. You dont have the name, relationship, or reliability to easily get into it. As far as the shares issued, options, and low insider ownership - thats what would make this a value trade. I would sell at around $45 - $50. My main issue is what do they do with the cash. They cant effectively repatriate it without having to pay taxes. So that eliminates dividends and buybacks. I would hope they would make a reasonable acquisition in Asia with the excess cash or perhaps buy there way into the SSD market. Either that or just let it pile up until something presents itself. These two articles provided alot of color. http://seekingalpha.com/article/217987-western-digital-seagate-technologies-questioning-the-outlook-of-the-hard-disk-industry http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=102514

Besides the SSD fears, and the issues accessing their cash what am I missing? Im still looking into it.

Playing Devils advocate - We tend to know who each other is talking about, and what about freedom of expression? Personally I think its lame to dawn another mans name letter for letter.

Very interesting read. This is probably our future. http://www.vanityfair.com/business/features/2010/10/greeks-bearing-bonds-201010?currentPage=all The future of Starve the Beast, this is what happens when spending goes up and taxes go down indefinitely.

I think that article is BS. We however reach the same conclusions. Government wages are a bit out of hand, especially when combined with benefits.

Personally I think supply side econ is retarded, and it has been shown to not work. More importantly corporations are mobile and will find the lowest costs (generally labor, taxes, and regulation). We cant compete when you look at all three. We should A reduce Taxes and Regulation (more the red tape, and not the useful stuff, I am for streamlining, not butchering), while pushing to some world standard for minimums on both (I like 10% for taxes). Second we should enable corporations to move money more effectively to the US. Things will be more streamlined, corporations wont leave for tax heavans (Switerland, Carribeans, Ireland), and things will be more efficient. Now to close the shortfall I would tax the owners and consumers more (they are less mobile and the US taxes world wide income). I would have a VAT tax, or some sort of tax aimed at taxing access to the US market. Its not fair for everyone to leave America, but sell to America. It sounds good but like the paradox of thrift, it doesnt work when too many people play the game. Thats what I would do. It would be more streamlined, and revenue nutural. I would tax things that cant really move effectively (people and access to the markets) and would leave the corporations alone. I do agree with Brox though. Simply cutting the taxes of business in an effort to win them over, will just be a race to the bottom. Companies will do what they do now with states. - They play them against each other to get fully subsidized and free land. It helps no one at the end because all of them start doing it.

I dont know. It looks like Fortress was a home run (better then FBK), and I am looking into D Leather. I also like his website. http://www.valueinvestigator.com/en/valuefavourites/

Surprisingly I agree with you both. http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Taxes/Advice/why-your-tax-bill-is-higher-than-ges.aspx

http://www.bengrahaminvesting.ca/Resources/Video_Presentations/Guest_Speakers/2010/Michael_2010.htm I am halfway through and so far its pretty good.

I believe you have 2 major risks. 1 is the declining lines, you have to hope broadband compensates for the disconnections, and that eventually the disconnections slow or stop. 2 is integration risks. It looks like Verizon did this with another company which went bankrupt due to integration / performance issues. Frontier seems to have great management (they talk a good game and use the right verbiage). It also seems like Management has done this with a few companies. --- It also seems to have alot of upside. If they can get Verizon to where they are (margins, and decline rate), then shareholders win big and get paid to wait. If they bring Verizon online as is then we do quite well and get paid to wait. If Verizon drags the whole ship down then everyone losses. I dont know what will happen, but it seems like a good risk reward.

He used to work for Morningstar and became impressed with the importance of having a moat. Therefore, in his mind, the fact that MCF was a low cost producer may have trumped the risk of investing in a commodity business at the peak of the cycle. Lol, that's a a great asset (low cost producer) but gives me no comfort with natural gas (its vastly oversupplied). I like Contango and will watch, but they should move into oil.

I think we all make mistakes. KSP was one of mine. But I dont get it - If something is worth $100 and sells natural gas at $12, isnt it only worth $30 - $40 if natural gas goes to $5 and its unhedged. Thats one hell of a blind spot.

I was just thinking about this. Was about to read that article after a cup of tea. My first thought was focus on the downside - Isnt this the same guy who went all in on a commodity stock when it was at an all time high, with no hedges? With that said, I have learned alot from Sellers, it should be a good read.

I think its the debt. It looks like 1/1 debt to market cap. Makes one pause, but the cash flows are consistent and the story makes sense. I see more and more people signing up for broadband, but wonder how they will service the debt and maintain the dividend. Its not a big worry but between debt, dividends, and expansion I think they will likely have to push out some of those maturities. This seems like LNET, but with a dividend and some built in growth. Same story - Growth overtime as the economy recovers, and as debt is paid down IV grows. Plus 10% while you wait. --- Thanks alot. I really like this idea, originally I just dismissed it but I like the focus on FCF and the simple story. VIC also has a writeup - http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/32690

I dont think CEOs lie per-say. I think alot of them simple have a misunderstanding of there capital structure and purpose. Many see stock as pieces of paper, and shareholders as pests. I dont come across many who truelly believe they work for me and other shareholders. Usually its the other way around. I cant blame them, most shareholders have the same misunderstanding.

LOL, reminds me of the Ipod one which is on youtube. Its just as funny.

I actually dont see them being successful here. I just dont see what they bring to the table vs. HTC, Samsung, Sony, or other Manufacturers.

Wouldnt a skateboard company or a bike company have the same exposure? Wouldnt Wal-Mart have a similar exposure?