clutch
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Posts posted by clutch
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I'm not a Trump supporter... unlike other Canadians here I don't care much about US politics. But I like to dispute popular notions regarding Covid with facts... which likley also highlight Trump derangement syndromes. Probably because I'm a contrarian by nature. And I have fun doing so. :-)
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One might also surmise that a certain amount of the increase may well be also due to trans-border crossings. While the border is closed to tourism, there are still thousands (tens of thousands) truckers and other essential workers crossing the border every day. I believe that half the U.S. states are still seeing cases trending up. You can't share a 3,000 mile border with a country that has a widespread disease and not expect it to spread over that border.
Our government continues to tell that there are very few cases coming across the border... whether you believe it or not.
Our Minister of Health infamously had said "Virus knows no borders" in March a few days before the country shut down the borders... The same ministry didn't want to people coming from China in Februrary put in self-isolaiton because it might lead to stigmitizing Chinese... then they communicated the nonsense about not needing to wear masks... Yet she rarely gets a pushback (except from the conservative media). I wonder why?
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Then there are Canadians on this thread who criticize and scrutinize the US admin in every way they can when things were not looking good there... Similar thing with Sweden.
Now that Canada looks to be heading in the wrong direction, they don't say anything... lol
As a Canadian myself, I really don't understand in this kind of behavior... I really doubt they care at all about people dying due to COVID -- they just want to jump in on the political fights and express their disgust on Trump or whoever that don't agree with their views. It's kind of sad.
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Yes, the people who were saying that Denmark was the best model are pretty quiet these days. Denmark is at ~500 cases per day about now, for a population of a shade under 6 million people. So, take Denmark and multiply by about 60, and that would be similar to the US. So, 500 x 60 = 30,000 (still lower than the current number of new cases in the US, but not appreciably). All of the people claiming that Sweden was misguided and that Denmark's test and traceback approach was dialed-in are pretty quiet in September.
Do we need to talk about the Netherlands or France?
Where are all of the aggressive, partisan posts these days? BTW, Canada is rapidly heading the wrong direction too.
SJ
I think the US news cycle has moved past the coronavirus now. And people ain't THAT stupid to argue that Trump nor Democrat governors are causing these spikes in other countries. ::)
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Latest on the Swedish approach:
"Sweden spared European surge as coronavirus infections stay low:
Chief epidemiologist puts low number of cases down to light-touch ‘sustainable’ approach"
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Cases vs. Deaths in Canada
My personal take on the discrepency:
- The virus has already gone through those who were most susceptible (weak immune system + pre-existing condition), especially in nursing homes
- More younger people are getting infected recently and it's not lethal for them
- Better policy/control at nursing homes now
Case fatality rate seems to be much lower than 1% now in Canada. No sudden increase in hospitalization/ICU demands yet. Given these trends, I'd be surprised to see a similar form of lockdown imposed again here.
I'm actually quite optimistic. Once we have vaccines, I think this virus just becomes another form of seasonal flu.
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Looks like a lot of people here are buying today albeit no significant drops across the market... are you guys having a change in your thoughts on the general market?
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I must admit I don't understand how the Martingale system purports to work since it seems to imply that spins are not independent of the previous spin.
But the argument on Labouchere is actually the opposite. That spins are independent. The logic is simply to take your win off the table and double down every time you lose. By simple math, as long as a winning spin eventually comes up you will ultimately win back that original $1. Yes you could be betting hundreds of thousands of $ to win back $1 if enough spins go against you in a row but the math is sound.
Labouchere method spreads it out so you don't double every time but its the same logic and math.
The problem is when a long series goes against you, the table limit comes into play quickly and you lose a ton. Reverse Labouchere therefore switched it around to use that table limit in your favor. Instead of doubling down when you lose, you double down when you win. In a normal sequence you will continue to lose $1 each series but eventually a long run will put you at table limit where you stop, pocket the money and start over at $1. The risk you take is that the small losing bets while waiting for a long run of wins could exceed the amount you win over the long streak.
Whether you buy into it or not, I'd suggest the book. It's a fun read and goes into a ton more detail and reasoning than we are talking here.
There are people who game the table limit by forming a team -- when you reach your limit, another person comes in and places the max limit with you and so on. This can allow you to stretch the system by 3-4 runs I guess.
But the more important limit is your own bankroll...
If anyone is still convinced that there is a winning system, try your luck (without your precious money in play) with this simulator:
https://www.bettingsimulation.com/
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I'm also surprised to see someone om this board saying that Martingale works, let alone a professional money manager. More reasons to believe that buying s&p 500 index is the better choice than trusting some (irrational) human to beat the index...
What the f**k! You're a frickin' engineer and you've made investments in cryptocurrencies! Pot calling the kettle black. Cheers!
Think of it as Isaac Newton buying the South Sea stock... althought this time it hasn't crashed yet. ;)
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I'm also surprised to see someone om this board saying that Martingale works, let alone a professional money manager. More reasons to believe that buying s&p 500 index is the better choice than trusting some (irrational) human to beat the index...
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In many domains you have people signaling their intelligence by walking around and talking about their gambling exploits.
The question i would pose them is: If you're so good at gambling how come you don't do it full time?
The most likely answer is that if you gamble in a low-risk way with a strategy that gives you favorable odds you are making peanuts.
The only way to make big bucks is to play with big stakes, but due to the swings inherent in gambling you will most likely run out of money.
Even with big bucks, it's hard to beat casinos because of table limits. If you can somehow play in a high stakes game, with no table limits, then a good player can do well.
High stakes poker tables prove that there is a certain amount of skill involved and those abilities can distinguish between the good and great players. But unlike statically picking stocks, there is an element of luck with gambling...that does not exist in stock-picking, unless you are throwing darts at a list of the S&P500 and hoping one of them will be a 100-bagger! Cheers!
There is definitely luck in investing, even if you are the world's best stock picker. If it was all skills, we would see a lot more consistency among high performers which is quite the opposite.
Another way to look at it:
If you play 1-on-1 basketball against Michael Jordan at his prime 100 times, you will never able to meet him. Because it's 99.999% skills in 1-on-1 basketball.
On the other hand, if you have a stock picking competiton against the best stock picker in the world 100 times, you will be able to beat them a handful amount of times.
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Now compare USA to other countries and look at normalized deaths...
Congrats on living in such a shithole country. I'd leave and seek refuge immediately. ::)
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^ definitely more testing
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I expect one or two of the workspace technology companies to become the next FANG, e.g., TEAM, SLACK, ZOOM, etc. Some of these technologies will become as ubiquitious as MS office and every working person will be using them... Maybe some of them get consolidated or eventually get acquired by MSFT.
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No spike in deaths relative to the number of cases in the US.
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If the COVID deaths curve goes way up (meaning it is extremely widespread within the population) and then flatlines, the region probably has herd immunity. You can't remove the virus from the population when it is that extremely widespread. Too much noise in the data and people focus too much on where the theoretical threshold for herd immunity is. You know it when you see it, and that is when the deaths go away.
This is B.S. If this were true, there would not be the second wave phenomenon seen in past pandemics.
His/her description is true if there were no lock downs (as predicted by the SIR model). We get 2nd waves because of interventions.
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No matter how well the government responds, if the people act stupidly, this virus will spread like a wildfire.
"South Korea church coronavirus cluster causes alarm"
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This likely will be the case in many "model" countries...
"The Latest: S Korea fears infections getting out of control"
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/latest-man-20s-australias-youngest-052650868.html
Countries cannot have lockdowns forever (good luck NZ) and there is fatigue setting in the public which leads to less compliance. And since less people have been exposed to the virus, more likely the 2nd wave will spread quickly.
(Not justifying the lack of actions taken by other countries, but pointing out the realities of this pandemic)
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Basic stuff doesn't exist in the US, if they really wanted to improve democracy. Like, election day should be a national holiday. Otherwise, it's a lot harder for poor people who have to work than for wealthy people with more job security and flexible vacation time/etc.
Don't get me started on gerrymandering..
But anyway, the mail-in stuff was directly related to COVID. The rest is less on-topic, though just as important.
Curious -- are you American?
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Update on New Zealand:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/new-zealand-coronavirus-1.5684541
Personally, I found this situation absurd... Many experts are now saying the vaccine will not be the silver bullet and Fauci saying it might be only 50% effective. This means that even with the vaccine available, New Zealand would have to introduce level 3 lockdowns every time there are new cases... because there will be. Obviously at some point they will have to relax their draconian approach...
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New Zealand is back to lockdowns over 4 untraceable transmission cases. Some will say "yes, that is the way to control the virus". On the other hand, some will say "you are in this lockdown limbo until when?"
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I look at charts but not in the mind of "don't fight the trends". I look to buy quality stocks when it's beaten down and overshoots downward...
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Anyone shorting this?
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US death projections
Source: https://www.covid-projections.com/
Obviously, these models have adjusted death rates to be much lower to be predicting these numbers, considering the rise in the number of cases. Seems obvious that more people are getting tested and more young people are getting the virus now.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
Obviously, so that they can keep blaming Trump... ::)