Desert_Rat
-
Posts
305 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Desert_Rat
-
-
This latest and greatest proposed solution sure is getting a lot of play here. I never even heard of Moelis before thursday, but has anyone determined what shareholders they're actually advising?
I'll be first: They're not advising me.
John Paulson and Blackstone, apparently. See below.
Definitive. Thanks.
The paper, "Restoring Safety and Soundness to the GSEs," is available here. It was written by Moelis & Company, as financial adviser to some Fannie and Freddie stockholders, including Paulson & Co. and Blackstone GSO Capital Partners.
-
This latest and greatest proposed solution sure is getting a lot of play here. I never even heard of Moelis before thursday, but has anyone determined what shareholders they're actually advising?
I'll be first: They're not advising me.
-
Thoughts on these filing's?
http://www.glenbradford.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Document.pdf
http://www.glenbradford.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Document-1.pdf
Particularly:
"In sum, because a purchase of stock, whether in an original issuance or on the secondary market, forms a new contract with the corporation rather than assignment of a past contract, the objections advanced in Class Plaintiffs’ Petition are without merit and do not warrant rehearing."
"In such a case, the owner presumably paid a discounted price for the property. Compensating him for a ‘taking’ would confer a windfall.”
They're pretty funny. They should have known they'd be ripped off is quite a defense!
-
I read a couple: Letter to Mnuchin and Pay us back. Well done and I have you saved.
-
It's gratifying-- and fun-- to read a plan like the "Blueprint," which complies with nearly everything that I laid out in my five most recent Seeking Alpha articles on FnF. Skeptics might say "just a coincidence." Fair enough. Maybe it's just that great minds think alike.
Searching 'Wayne Polson' didn't bring anything up. Care to share, I'd be interested in reading.
-
Hey, wait one damn second. I distinctly recall my parents saying I was a winner many times. You calling them liars?
-
Do you think market does not think much of the proposal? With $25 for pfd and $13 for common by 2020, at least they could have risen to 40% of value. That is like 4-5x gain over 4 years from today's prices, investors should be lining up.
The most liquid issue i own:
Watt declares withholding dividend in front of members of Congress: Up 7% on 2x volume
Another thinktank offers their opinion, and it's kinda favorable: Up 1% on 3x lower volume
No one cares
-
according to cnbc, ben carson recently said in an interview he wouldnt be opposed to investors getting paid
timing of moelis is a clue that things are heating up
Do you have a link?
it's not much.. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000623709
-
$7.95, huh. Right.
4 pages that haven't anything to do with the preferreds except another thinktank's opinion, which means as much to Congress as yours does. This board has gone to crap lately ;D
-
I'm skeptical that the senior's will be cancelled. I've been clear on that.
-
@cherzeca
To play devils advocate, do you foresee any risk that MBA proposals and Corker/Warner get what they want and hand over the business to TBTF banks? Or you are saying it's a systemic impossibility due to the $100bn capital hole as you describe it. And if it is a systemic impossibility, have you put your entire net worth into the preferred shares? Seems like a home run to me.
If I might be so bold...
NO
NEVER
NOT IN A MILLION YEARS
IT'S SILLY TO EVEN ASK
-
CC 6/1 10:30am by moelis, financial advisor to certain GSE preferred shareholders
"while realizing a significant financial gain for the U.S. taxpayer"
Yummy. RSVP requested. Thanks.
-
"Currently there is virtually no capital in the conventional secondary mortgage market (Treasury has taken it out), so our first priority must be to ensure we can attract sufficient capital for the $5 trillion in credit guarantees that already exist." https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2017/04/25/narrowing-the-differences/comment-page-1/#comment-3527
just think about it. forget about new mortgages and new guarantees on their MBS. there are $5T of guarantees in place without any capital support. corker says there is >$200B of capital in place in the form of treasury support, but everyone views this as either nonconstructive or absurd. no one in treasury and few in congress want to see another draw on this line; indeed, one of trump's first executive orders was to empower treasury to end bailouts, and this can only mean that the administration wants to replace the line, not use the line
so any proposal that calls for new monoline insurers, and a new guarantee backstop for housing finance going forward, does not address the current capital hole; let's call it $100B of capital.
all proposals call for private capital to fill this $100B hole, but CRT transactions dont provide capital, they just shift credit risk, and in fact watt was recently candid enough to admit that fhfa is uncertain how much credit risk is actually transferred...this is a function of how fast prepayments pay down the credit support tranches bought by investors.
the only way that $100B hole can be filled is to associate it with the guarantee fee income that the GSEs receive for incurring the $5T in liabilities...and that means eliminating the senior preferred, which conveniently enough, is about to be repaid in full on the basis of the original deal.
these are stark financial facts, imo.
I know you don't talk much but would you care to support that a bit? In order for a $100b hole to be covered it would take a decade if tax reform goes through, or still a long time even if it doesn't. How is that a solution to building a capital buffer fast enough to ward off the next recession, which may already be overdue?
-
-
Crapo: hey, let's throw a carrot that we want to finally get this done after 8 years.
Corker: they will figure it out, it's a lie, we have done it enough times
Crapo: nah. we will debate it for many months, then go one recess, then to budget, then to tax reform and soon it will be 2020.
Corker: you are a genius.
Crapo: yes I am.
Corker: Let's get back to shorting it.
I don't doubt that the principles involved with FnF/housing reform want a solution, and fast, but when one side of the aisle is demanding govt involvement as an entitlement for the poor, and the other is demanding the govt exit completely, with a whole bunch of others are fearful of what any change to a successful 70 year program will bring, and another demanding no govt backstop, you get stalemate.
Eternal stalemate.
-
My understanding is that program has already been slated to end 1/1/2018. This admin has nothing to do with it.
?http://royce.house.gov/uploadedfiles/pay_back_the_taxpayers_act_of_2015.pdf
-
My understanding is that program has already been slated to end 1/1/2018. This admin has nothing to do with it.
-
$4.1 trillion budget, and I'm not secure because radicals are allowed to immigrate, the streets I drive are a mess, cost for healthcare is ridiculous, 40 years of investment will likely mean squat on SS, I have no interest in medicare and all its pitfalls, most inter-space innovation is not from NASA, apparently everything i do and say is recorded by social media, aka NSA, and I guess I should learn words like 'ze'.
All I want from my phucking govt is defense and infrastructure. THAT'S IT.
-
SPY Sept options. I've had $200 puts.
Game ends right prior to Comey 7/24 hearing, after which market will soar.
Complete opposite. Not only didn't the market care about all that fakenews, I mean, at all, but it looks like the hearing isn't happening either. As far as fakenews goes, this one was insanely fake.
Regardless, still accumulating SPY puts. Next time I'll temporarily close out EOD on this type news and reestablish after.
-
would dramatically restructure Fannie and Freddie
Nope
put in place a federal guarantee on certain mortgage securities. This protection would kick in after private investors
Nope. Would kick in before and, if need be, after PI.
-
Pretty much agree the Demo's are on our side and probably more vital to our wants than any other. Now excuse me while I go shower that off.
-
This may be Watt's point of contention and urge to retain dividends..."Trump budget estimates $fnma and $fmcc will give $142bn for "deficit reduction" over next 10 years under NWS; http://bit.ly/2rMPqj4 "
In addition, in 2014 FHFA directed the GSEs to set aside 4.2 basis points for each dollar of the unpaid principal balance of new business purchases (including but not limited to mortgages purchased for securitization) in each year to fund several federal affordable housing programs created by HERA, including the Housing Trust Fund and the Capital Magnet Fund. These set-asides were suspended by FHFA in November 2008 and were reinstated effective January 1, 2015. The 2018 Budget proposes to eliminate the 4.2 basis point set-aside and discontinue funding for these Funds, resulting in an increase to the estimated PSPA dividendsMy understanding is that Watt is not retaining dividends, he's delaying them. In the end they may wind up being the same thing though.
-
very cursory treatment by judge atlas of the collins constitutional claim. she knows collins will appeal, so she will let the apeals court handle this...likely after the dc circuit en banc in PHH...and maybe ultimately in scotus
You really there's a chance SCOTUS takes this, takes any of this? I don't. But if it did, that must mean freedom. No reason why it would take any of it unless against US govt.
-
Yep, I now recall that it was the wire transfer that had me pass. It had me question the legitimacy of it all.
Shocking state of law schools, when will ABA act?
in General Discussion
Posted
I laughed.
From what I read 75% of California black youth can't read at state level either, and that level, compared to the rest of America, must be ridiculously low.
Honestly, I don't hire lawyers but i do try hiring the kids of today. They're all unprepared to accomplish anything in life. Mostly idiots, mechanically illiterate, uncomfortable with basic tools. I bet they're good gamers and have substantial followers though! I say good luck, future generations - plural because I can't see why and how it will ever get better.