Desert_Rat
-
Posts
305 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Desert_Rat
-
-
Putin is interested in undermining American institutions (e.g., elections), so it's probably reasonable to assume that he would want to underline the 30-year fixed price mortgage, which, after all, is crucial to supporting the ability of the middle class to own their own home.
Well fancy that, so is America! As far as what he thinks of our 30 year, I doubt his interest runs that deep. Disposing of war-mongering Hillary was enough.
-
Because the preferreds could have 5x upside to the commons no upside, but not the reverse. To reject the safety moat offered by the preferreds for an imaginary higher upside is foolish, imo.
As far as Ackman, I'd bet he'd prefer the preferreds as well (probably owns a bunch now too), but the math in accumulating them at the time over just buying the heavier traded common shares didn't work for him. Most preferreds trade very sparsely.
-
Wife and I looked at beds this weekend - looking to upgrade to a king and take advantage of the holiday sales. Mattress Firm will price match and give 10% off, which can be fairly lucrative. Similarly, if there isn't a comparable bed at a competing place, they quoted us ~33% off the initial sticker price.
Some of my friends like Casper, but I'm concerned about the durability of the bed. The mattress industry is certainly ripe for disruption.
I've had a king Casper for over a year and can attest to the quality and comfort of it. I've read that a Cocoon is similar so I'd strongly recommend either product. Best mattress I've ever owned.
-
NAR Asks FHFA to Allow GSEs to Build Capital; Treasury and Panels Get CC’d
Short Takes: Uncle Sam will be $5B Richer on Friday (GSE Money) /Zilch for the Others / Break Up Fannie and Freddie? / Something to Ponder / A Promotion at Guild Mortgage
"In its 2016 figures, the Center for Responsive Politics ranked the National Association of Realtors as the 2nd largest top spender in lobbying after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. On the total spending, the largest share—46% -- has gone to Republicans."
Maybe NAR can move the needle?
That could be the most informative thing I've read on this thread for months (except my posts of course). Forget the courts, people, this is all about politics and the money that drives it. I happen to think we're ahead there.
-
Cut n paste protected.
-
Looks like they are precisely timing this one. I wish Mel Watt does a one 'on-your-face-senators' this time.Won't you think Corker, Mark Warner, Hensarling, Crapo and Watt would give up at some point? Looks like they won't. How can they have one sided biased opinion panel in these hearings? Why does senate call Stevens 'The Honorable David H Stevens "? Is he some kind of king of banks?
https://www.banking.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2017/6/principles-of-housing-finance-reform
Watt: Now there's a near-term catalyst for you. Presently has the power to do whatever he pleases.
-
Yeah, cause that always works ::)
Tell me you're glad you didn't dump your whole position on the Feb verdict now that it's been halved. One wrong statement from Mnuchin and this goes on sale again. Like I said, kept half of a large position. Either my downsides limited, I'm successful with half or I get an opportunity to buy at lower price if that seems intelligent at the time. Makes pretty good sense IMO.
I've spent way to much of my life trying to time stocks, but I made most of my money sitting on a few. That's where I'm at. I'm good with the odds here.
-
Yeah, cause that always works ::)
-
Link
I don't think the Sweeney case is doomed. It might take a while though. Also, the DE stuff isn't doomed, wait and see.
I did downsize. I now have exactly $1 m of preferreds (redemption value). I'm optimistic about that position doing well eventually.
The Sweeney case is most likely (very likely) doomed; resolution may take 5 or more years; Berkowitz has whined. Still at a loss as to why you're selling. Maybe it's because you have more confidence than I do about finding better opportunities, but riddle me this: Suppose 10 years. What is the most likely return and what return would that generate?
I'm convinced that we get face value, which works out to about a 20% annual ROI.
-
Add the position of translator to the list: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/06/19/earpiece-can-translate-foreign-languages-speak/
-
fannie freddie talk starts round 24:50. said they haven't yet talked to this administration about f&f but yet they had talked to the last administration. kinda seemed weird
Schatzker explains why this 5-bagger remains a 5-bagger.
-
-
I am not 'him' Rob Schain. What is wrong with you all? You all are into bullying too? You just named someone who is not me. It is not fair to this person whoever he is. I thought you all were smart and educated. Have I asked you to sell or buy anything? Have I said anything that has offended you personally? You have been pressuring me to sell my commons and buy preferreds without understanding of my situation even though I have told you multiple times that I understood but the Moelis plan doesn't make me comfortable in switching. None of you have told me why I would lose if I don't switch and all of you seem to support Moelis plan. I came here to find some support but you are stressing me out.
who is rob schain?I was thinking "Emily" is Rob Schain. Maybe not, but "she" sure sounds familiar...
But are you Emily Schain?
Seriously though, just ignore them. If you prefer the commons, that's your call. I may not agree with it, but with an outcome that's still up in the air, who knows.
-
Volume on prfds and price action absolutely sucks lately. Some positive comments/developments would be nice just to stop the slow bleed.
So a Buffett protege sold 200 FMCCJ today at a 12.5% discount. Like, that $1700 just had to be immediately reallocated. dumbasses
-
I'm sure there could be dozens of plans showing a massive capital raise as doable, each as good as the other, but I'm even surer that none of them mean squat without determination by Congress to act. As the FnF market will attest, it's doubtful they are anywhere near ready to.
That said, I still believe the prices these things are selling for lately is bizarre. I mean, I think it's obvious how this story ends, with Moelis plan being an example, but it's like the market is blowing it all off until it believes Congress is ready. How in its right mind could they blow it off though? Even at 10 years (possible) the annualized return is still in the 20% range, and I laugh at anyone who believes that type return is possible with market ETF's.
The market's wrong, I'm holding tight.
-
I'll take that as a yep!
-
-
When I said every news outlet, I did actually mean every.
Although it is supported by the Trump White House, the bill is unlikely to pass the Senate. Democrats have signaled their ongoing support for Dodd-Frank and view the Choice Act as letting banks “off the hook” for the financial crisis.Even Breitbart, hardly MSM, thinks the bill is unlikely to pass the Senate. (And yes, unfortunately, the byline on this one is John Carney, which I'm sure will spawn shouts of "fake news" here.)
The reason every news outlet is basically unanimous that this version of the bill will not survive the House is that the GOP does not have the 60 votes needed to override a filibuster. That's also why the Senate is moving ahead with its own version of the bill that's different than the House version.
It's a free country, though, so I suppose you can continue to believe what you want to believe.
To be clear, I'd love the FHFA modification to remain in the Senate version. I have no idea if it will or not. That's why I stated earlier:
It will fly through the senate, and Trump has already signed the bill as he suspects he'll be busy golfing that day.
It's not expected to pass the Senate in its current form -- though I'll be curious to see what parts of this bill are retained in the Senate version.
You're implying that all these different sources send their own reporters to research when you know that's not true. This opinion is based on one thing: That house Dem's won't support it or anything else from the GOP. That's an assumption. It's a real good one but I'm willing to bet that near 100% GOP support, which is a nice change, plus 6 figure 'donations' from the banking sector to a half dozen Dem's will get it done. The financial services industry has been itching for this for a long time, and even many Dem's hate its over-regulation.
Of course there will be minor changes because no bill has ever passed without pork being added or subtracted, but on the whole it should pass intact.
BTW, I just made a statement about the bill passing, which I think it will. That doesn't mean that I care if it does or doesn't re: FnF. Pres should have ability to replace Watt, else Watt could do whatever he pleases, but I don't think he would anyway. Watt seems to be doing a fine job. As far as Choice act eliminating bailouts Trump has already stated no more. So the CA specifically doesn't mean much to us, IMO, although any bill being passed into law should mean a substantial uptick in FnF because it suggests other bills, like housing, may succeed too.
-
Did you get that from WashPo or NYT? Bwahahahahaha!
Literally every news outlet.
Here's the Journal:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/house-set-to-pass-bill-rolling-back-wall-street-rules-1496914205
The House of Representatives passed legislation Thursday that would unwind financial industry regulations. The bill isn’t likely to pass in the Senate.The pair haven’t announced any plan. Republicans and Democrats in the Senate so far have only been able to agree on relatively minor changes to Dodd-Frank.That means the Senate is unlikely to take up some of the more controversial provisions in House bill, according to a GOP Senate aide, such as the 10% leverage ratio for regulatory relief, reduced powers of the consumer bureau, and repealing the Orderly Liquidation Authority in Dodd-Frank for the government to unwind a failing financial firm.
Mr. Hensarling said he is looking for ways to push pieces of the plan through the Senate without Democratic support by attaching some measure to the annual budget bill, which passes on a majority vote. Some of those provisions include the Orderly Liquidation Authority measure, reducing the CFPB’s powers and eliminating the Office of Financial Research, created to study financial risks.“We’ll look for every opportunity to get as much of the Financial Choice Act on President Trump’s desk as is possible,” Mr. Hensarling said.
But hey, I'm sure you know more about the chances of the bill passing through the Senate in its current form than the author and main proponent of the bill. You should send Hensarling a note. Let him know everything is fine.
I don't know more, but when you compare my level of inside knowledge (zip) to MSM's deliberate attempts to undermine this administration, with apparently all information they have at their disposal reported opposite of truth, mine rules. They will always report failure. I, on the other hand, look at the GOP votes and see smooth sailing. Bet that's the case too.
-
Did you get that from WashPo or NYT? Bwahahahahaha!
-
It passed via an almost unanimous GOP vote - 233-186. If the GOP were as this together on every policy, Ocare would be dead, housing and tax reform would already be in effect, terrorists would be screwed, and this place on earth would be a much rosier place.
It will fly through the senate, and Trump has already signed the bill as he suspects he'll be busy golfing that day.
-
[i am just trying to rationalize mnuchin going from a (seemingly) gung ho quick (administrative) solution early on to a more deferential posture now.... if mnuchin and watt want to go with an administrative reform, the blueprint is ready to be adopted and executed.]
I realize it's your job to advocate for the Moelis plan, but I have to admit I'm a little bit skeptical.
Moelis is slow to deal with relisting and dividend restoration, probably to be palatable to the "optics."
Delisting caused banks and traditional fiduciary investors to exit FnF investments, leaving hedge funds to invest in the GSEs. The "beltway boys" use this as a way to try to disenfranchise GSE equity investors from participating in the GSE reform process.
Waiting on dividend restoration makes achieving the Moelis price targets a bit difficult.
Corker and the rest of the beltway boys have done everything to keep the GSE equity investors out of the process.
There are encouraging signs with respect to Watt. With Mnuchin, it's a lot more ambiguous.
Why is is cherzeca's "job"?
Secondly I think we need to make sure shareholders rights are respected way before we worry about a div. That has been hard enough to assure let alone any sweeteners. No reason to get greedy IMO.
Dividends. LOL. Not going to happen, ever. Not with today's equity anyway. Quality corporate preferreds are < 6% yet FNMAS' is going to remain, what, 10%? No.
-
There is also the pending debt crisis. Can the Rs plausibly take away the NWS from Tsy?https://newrepublic.com/article/143144/debt-limit-nightmares-coming-true
The theory was that the Trump error would be good for GSE equity investors. LOL.
Except this admin has specific priorities (build the freaking wall, for christ's sake; for one) that $100b would resolve. I've also read that Trump isn't much a balanced budget guy. Probably because he's aware today's ridiculously low interest on that debt makes it free money, but for whatever reason it doesn't appear as if he's all that concerned about it.
-
I'm in enough stock at the moment that most people don't give a rat's about, although their value is crystal clear, to realize that it actually doesn't matter what we think, or how awesome this latest and greatest idea is. It matters what they think. They're wrong but they also dictate the rules.
FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
in General Discussion
Posted
DR
There is no good info, there is only time. What you have to ask yourself is one question: "Do you have the patience?" Well, do you, punk?