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antao

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  1. I vote on special situations as well given Buffet's background.
  2. I am not a US citizen but contrary to the great majority of non-US citizens I am actually somewhat happy that Mr. Trump won the elections. I believe a Trump presidency may prove to be beneficial on the longer-term for the US economy. I am a little bit more concerned about the US foreign policy and its effect on the world as we know it but I expect that the Democrats will be able to refrain any rash decisions Mr. Trump may be inclined to make. As a side-note, it would be important to think about the results in recent elections around the globe - Mr. Tsipras in Greece, the Brexit vote in the UK, the extremist and non-conformity parties' ascent in Spain and France, just to name a few. Despite living in a globalized world (accelerated by advances in telecommunications and transportations, not because people truly felt they were world citizens, as is commonly advertised), most people tend to act in accordance to their self-interest first, then that of their family, their community, their country and lastly the world. This is more evident when things don't seem so favorable to them as we have been witnessing in developed countries for the better part of this century. For a re-distributing model to work it is first needed to have a growing working power and a wealth creation infrastructure in place - that means people are employed, goods are produced and services are provided. A re-distributing model based on a service-heavy economy has yet to be proved sustainable (as seen in so many western countries). As such, it is my opinion that either countries promote an economy based on a balance of goods production and service providing or if they are to be scattered internationally (i.e. some countries are mainly responsible for production of goods and other countries are in charge of providing services) then the re-distributing model should be thought of on a global scale. As a whole, the world has what it takes for a re-distributing model to work - increasing manpower and wealth creation capability - the challenge is to see if world leaders are able to cooperate towards the creation of such a model. And this, unfortunately, is for me more of an utopia than seeing each country trying to solve the equation on their own.
  3. HowMuchValue, Although your reasoning is theoretically accurate, in the real world this is not so straightforward. I will not even discuss the real-word difficulty to each and every time correctly assess owner earnings, return on invested capital, return on incremental invested capital, their respective future growth rates, unexpected developments in the company or in its industry, broad market corrections, and so much more. But even if this was possible and one could correctly know these factors in advance with 100% accuracy, market acknowledgment could be off by 1 year or 2 (to be generous), severely impairing your reasoning. I believe the problem with compounding at a 50% rate is not so much the theoretical possibility - which exists up until a certain point, no one doubts it - but the practical challenges of doing so. BTW, your post reminded me of an advice from Will Rogers about investing: "Buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it."
  4. I believe such returns are only attainable by either deep concentration (5 positions or less making at least 90% of the entire portfolio) and/or the use of moderate levels of leverage. For it to work security selection is of paramount importance and each new valid idea must come about only once a year or so on market conditions such as today's.
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