philippoc93

25.29 % for my first year as an investor net of expenses but pre-tax. Biggest contributors to this gain were DVN and PLBC Laggards have been BXE, STNG, and GILD Best luck to everyone in 2017 :)

Thanks for the reply on that TwoCities

That macro play makes sense in this current environment. A few questions if you don't mind answering? 1) What length contracts are you using? LEAPS or options? 2) How do you select your strike price? Do you base it off a 10%,15%,20% decline or is it a certain return you are looking for? 3) What percent of your portfolio do you attribute to this? 4) Finally, do you view this as insurance for your long portfolio or are you using a barbell approach? Thanks a lot. I'm still learning about options and it's only my first year to properly running my own portfolio. Still saving up the funds to have enough to utilise options effectively.

ISNS - I expect revenue to decline to steady and begin growing in 2017, expenses are under control and A.Berger owns just under 20%. He knows what he's doing and is the Executive Chairman of the board now

....for $17.80 per share in preferred units of Steel Partners aha - thank you sir

It hasn't moved? :o

Thanks for the link Phil. I read through few of his articles. It is a very viable strategy, and as he says relatively cheap. Basically he picks companies that are heavily leveraged in some way to the economy, and buys way out of the money puts. He allows them to expire worthless, unless there is a significant market pullback. He spreads them across industries. The bulk of his 'normal' portfolio is in dividend growers, which he mostly leaves on autopilot unless they become way overvalued, and it seems unsustainable. So, recently he has shorted (via puts) capital one financial (cof) the premise here is that in a recession/pullback credit defaults in cards will rise. The stock always tanks with the general market. Ual - United Airlines parent - heavily leveraged to all sorts of good economic news - very vulnerable in a downturn - It is near cyclical highs and always crashes with the markets. Why anyone would ever buy this company is beyond me. Gt - goodyear tire and rubber - leveraged to the auto industry Maasco - levered to home sales and home repairs marriot hotels - levered to a healthy economy Generally all the companies he has picked also have greater than industry financial leverage as well. He has several more suggestions. I have been looking for ideas to protect my assets without going to cash, and am exploring this. In the past I have tried index puts, with little success - they tend to be expensive and decay quickly. Uccmal, Happy you found it useful. I learned something also - how to write a perfect summary ;D Phil

https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/smf_addin/info This baby is a gem

An author I follow on SA has been talking about hedging his positions by 30% for the last year or two. Instead of buying puts on the SPY, he buys them for specific companies that have tight margins, are over valued and have performed poorly in recent recessions, all at a cost below 3%. Hes actually had the insurance for free for the last two years and the proceeds have paid for his 2016 insurance. http://seekingalpha.com/article/2177103-the-time-to-hedge-is-now-do-it-for-less-part-i?source=author_profile_page He spreads the puts out among the weakest companies in the industries in which his holdings are operating. Interested to hear what you guys make of this strategy? Phil

Undervalued, Not one to knit pick, particularly when this thread seems to not have been stirred in a while, but the above quote might be a little inappropriate (unfortunate) in this particular instance: “And he was willing to borrow money to make money, whereas Buffett had never borrowed a significant sum in his life. “I need three million dollars,” Munger would say, on one of his frequent visits to the Union Bank of California. “Sign here,” the bank would reply.25 With these huge sums, Munger did enormous trades like British Columbia Power, which was selling at around $19 and being taken over by the Canadian government at a little more than $22. Munger put not just his whole partnership, but all the money he had, and all that he could borrow into an arbitrage on this single stock26—but only because there was almost no chance that this deal would fall apart. When the transaction went through, the deal paid off handsomely.” Its from the snowball effect by Schroeder I don't have the exact quote Munger made (I think it's the baseball pitch analogy), but I believe that it was along the lines of - when odds are and risk/reward (expected value) is incredibly in your favour, it's time to bet big. I think this is the time to use leverage. Now I can't offer any practical experience, because I have never used leverage in my long and prestiged 4 month investment career. However, I'm starting to absorb as much about options, non recourse leverage as I can now, so I'm ready to pounce when there is blood in the streets. I wouldn't be touching leverage now at such elevated valuations. Was considering it for some of the oil plays, but then thought that was a stupid move as they are already a massively levered play. My thoughts got ahead of me there so I'll stop now. Lovely to make your acquaintance everyone and I look forward to great discussion with you all. Phil

This is interesting to know - I've recently become quite a fan of Burry's contrarian and deep value style. I have started to study his old research reports and forum posts from back in his early days (1996 - early 00's before Scion and at the beginning at Scion in 01/02). He was an avid contributor to Silicon Investor and all his old posts can be still be seen here starting from when he was just 24 and still a junior surgeon - http://www.siliconinvestor.com/profile.aspx?userid=690845 One of his old research reports on Wellsford Real Properties -http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/306#description I have a number of other research reports and other material on him if anyone is interested. Just send me a PM as I can't seem to find the links but have the documents saved.

Why do you think this company has hope? Looking at yahoo finance it has $1.25 cash per share. sells for $0.79 per share and lost $0.45 last year. So another year like last year and the netnet margin is spent..... When I consider netnets the company has to be profitable $0.26 of that was a non recurring charge in 2nd Qtr of 2015 so that does reduce the normal deficit somewhat. With the likelihood of new management with a focus on cost cutting, margin improvement and realignment of the business, there is the potential for a significant turnaround story. Activist investors have also been increasing their % ownership recently. Earnings for Qtr 4 are out tomorrow and that will provide some more insight - estimates approx -$0.11 per share. I have not invested -just watching at the moment.

Hi Guys, New to the forum and just beginning my investment career. Looking forward to being part of a great community. My 10 cents - Support.com (SPRT) https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SPRT Market Cap - 39.39m with 68.49m in cash on the books. No debt! Negative EV of -0.35 Activist investors who control more than 15% of the firm and have notified the board in a recent SEC filing (13D) that they will aim to oust the current board at the next annual meeting in march. 13D filing - http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1104855/000092189516003068/ex991to13da510114013_012516.htm Currently in the red and getting through cash, but not an alarming levels. I think it could be a very nice turnaround story. Let me know what you guys think :) Phil