Packer16

I just have the web subscription which gets me 10-years of financial data for all firms and access to analyst reports and logic/rationale for ratings and moats. Packer

Maybe the question of whether his tax deferral is a tax dodge (even after death) can be added to the questions to ask Buffet at his annual meeting. It will be interesting to see if he would answer.

You are right Buffet is doing the same thing as Romney just in a different way (Cap Gains versus IRA) (form over substance). If he really wanted folks to pay a higher tax rate he would donate a portion of his wealth to Uncle Sam as if he earnied the investment income as ordinary income as an example instead of playing the games wealthy folks do. Packer

I would say either one as far as I know. I used to work for a Big 4 over 10 years ago and MBAs were there main recruiting place for associates. It is not the only way but it is the most common. Clients include corporate, hedge funds, banks or HNW individuals and their advisors (lawyers, tax advisors and accountants) depending upon engagement. Packer

The main source of our hires is from MBAs. We do hire non-MBAs but that is for our research support function. Accounting is relevant but finance is more important. PM me if you want to discuss in more detail your situation. Packer

I have the basic subscription. I subscribed to the others but found limited usefulness as I could find more data from other sources (i.e. Morningstar). The other source I purchase is Morningstar. Packer

I do what west recommends as I subscribe to the print edition and review every week. I also develop industry valuation sheets for the industries I follow. See Ask Packer thread for more details. I also re-read the classics the Intelligent Investor and The Most Important Thing by Marks and review the Investment Ideas section on this board, it is a great source for ideas. Packer

There are other alternatives you may want to consider. You can invest your own account and gain experience that way keeping your existing job. There are some folks on the board doing that right now. This will allow you the freedom to invest where you want not where the client wants. In some cases explaining why you are buying the cheap unloved stock to a client takes more effort than selecting the stock. I have done this and would not want to explain to someone why their money is in LinTV and Alliance Healthcare and the high weights in the portfolio. To a certain extent even when you get to the buy-side, you will be constrained by the buy-side firms constraints. There is a reason why mutual funds (even good value oriented funds) have a hard time beating the market by a significant amount, it's their constraints (including size). If you beat the index by a few percentage points you are considered a genius under these constraints. If you do your own account approach, you don't have those constraints and achieving better than market performance can be easier. Second, you can enter a field that is related where there is good demand but not as much supply. Business valuation is one area right now where that is the case. But as with a sell-side analyst you will be starting at the entry stage and it will take 18 to 24 months before you can start to feel confident in performing the analysis on your own. Just some thoughts. Packer

Gary Schilling has some data which shows we are about 50% done with deleveraging the US consumer. At this rate we will back to the average leverage in about 5 years. This was further than I thought. Packer

I agree on the broad market but specific segment most affected by leveraged finance probably have a way to go (radios/TVs, non-CBD real estate and oil and gas). Packer

What they will do is drive demand for high yield debt as inputs for the securitization to create tranches for yield hungry investors. The loans will be originated by banks to be securitzed in the CLOs. This will drive yields down for leveraged firms and provide cheap financing for takeovers. Packer

CLOs will drive debt financing of deals which will increase firm enterprise multiples. Just remind me in 18 months that if I use it justify high stock prices that I am getting long in the tooth. Packer

Another vehicle just starting to re-emerge is the CLO. This will drive equity prices higher for at least 6 to 12 month if not longer. They started to re-emerge in late 2012. I agree that prices will decline but as these pipes become unclogged it will be awhile yet. Packer

One thing not shown in the chart is net outflows from equity to MM and bond funds. There has been a small amount of inflows but we are nowhere near the levels that we were at the other tops noted in your chart. Packer

I think in Mark's latest memo he states we are in beginning of stage 2. Packer

Has anyone looked in this space? There appears to be a large valuation difference between the laggard The Pantry @ 5.8x EBITDA and 3x FCF and the star Getty Realty @ 19.4x EBITDA and 20x FCF. I don't see much difference between these types of businesses with potential of some of the laggards either being acquired turned into REITs. I am not overly familiar with this space but like the RE aspect of the business. Packer

Ross did mention that his fimrs are locking in long-term debt financing which is another way to play rising interest rates (buying firms with LT low cost financing). Packer

Nice evidence that sentiment is still low in addition to recent outflow of equity funds. The contrary play would to stay or increase commitments to stocks. Packer

You are correct until alternatives can be developed and given the history of markets I would not bet against them. We have already found fuel substitutes for wood and coal and as these resources increase in real terms the economics of alternatives becomes more compelling. Packer

Has any one found a tool to measure past performance by security? I have a TD Waterhouse account and they have my statements going back to 2003 but I have no easy way to see where my mistakes and winners are other than sorting through the hard copy monthly statements. TIA Packer

You have to remember being a closed system probably without a market economy what incentive/price was placed on the last trees, probably not too high. In our system the pricing mechanism provides incentives the Easter Island guys never had. Packer

My response is that the market has always provided the incentive to innovate. If the resources become too scarce then the price will go up and the incentive will be greater. His one time industrial revolution idea dismisses the notion that a global market will provide incentives to solve problems. How long has such a market been around? Maybe 200 to 300 years or so. Coincidence that this is time of the industrial revolution. I think not. Before that time just about all of humanity was based upon subsistence farming. In a market system, procrastination will only occur without an innovative incentive. So I am not only relying on science but the profit incentive to innovate. That is how we have Moore's Law and the decline PV cell pricing. The gov't can assist but only around the edges. When it tries to do major initiatives they will most likely be wrong but it is not because of the science is it because the future is not predictable. Packer

I think things like this are what Malthus and Grantham are missing by only look at today. I am surprised by Grantham however as he is suppose to be a student of history. Packer

Oil will still be needed for transportation. I think the oil sands will be fine until a new transportation fuel is developed/adopted (quite a few years IMO). Packer

I guess the real question about solar is will the installation cost also decline as fast as the panels. Interesting implications for electricity production as many of the coal plants and at some point nat gas plants may be replaced by solar. Thanks for the article. Packer