DC.A is trading just under the lower end so I guess the market is expecting this to be fully subscribed around $1.40. I assume the expectation is that lots of Pref A holders will take this opportunity to jump ship.
They still carry UHIC on the books at $39m (as of Q3). The assumptions behind this valuation are outlined in their financials, but it strikes me that this almost certainly a 0. Delonex is in rough shape. Warburg Pincus was trying to unload their stake in the summer. Not sure of the current state.
Dundee has said they're in active discussions about selling Blue Goose and TauRX. The carrying value of Blue Goose was knocked down by $10m within the last year (Q1?) but TauRX has been carried at $41m for ages. I presume they've had some indicative bids for Blue Goose but not for the TauRX stake. In any case I expect Blue Goose to eventually sell at a 0-25% haircut to its current carrying value of $26m, and I'm skeptical they'll get anywhere close to $41m from TauRX. Frankly I wish they'd just unload TauRX at whatever price they can get before the current Phase 3 ends. I think its terminal value is 0. The chance of success in AD drugs in near 0.
Reported NAV at end of Q3 was $3.36. After marking things down as I've indicated above I arrive at NAV in the $2.60-2.70 range.
I support almost everything Jonathan Goodman has done since taking his turn on the family throne, including the idea of returning to their roots in mining. But it's hard to see how they'll start scale the business fast enough to cover their ongoing cash drain. They haven't articulated a plan in any detail and frankly it's not clear if they have one.
Didn't TauRX do a financing round last year for preferred shares that were convertible into ordinary share at a price of $ 200? Dundee still values their share at $ 30, a 50% discount to the financing round of 2016
so unless they come up with bad clinical results, I would say that their shares are probably worth at least double of what they are valued at on the books, so at least $ 82M, and if they were valued at $200, then they would be worth $ 270M
agreed, those are theoretical values, and they have to find a buyer to get that price, but I think that if they sell it in the coming months, we might be positively surprised by the price they'll get
