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Nicholas

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Posts posted by Nicholas

    Semper Augustus

    in Berkshire Hathaway

    Posted

    Today I got confirmation from Chad Christensen for inclusion in the Semper Augustus client letter maling list [without being a client], and I replied with a "thanks a lot" and positive words about the BRK analysis also.

     

    Chad replied:

     

    Thanks for the feedback. We will have a follow-up on the BRK this week coming out.

     

    Chad

     

    So I'm eager to read whatever more to come, and will share it here.

     

    Nice one john. It'd be much appreciated if you could share it.

     

    Thanks

    Australia Favor

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Any board members live somewhat near here?

     

    34 Roger Street

    BROOKVALE NSW 2100

     

    I live in Seattle and am looking to get a small package from a store located there to me...I will prepay all costs.

     

    PM me for more details.

     

    I do. I live in the next suburb. Feel free to PM me and ill see if i can help.

    Nick

    100 baggers - Christopher Mayer

    in Books

    Posted

    BTW, for those worried about cost of admission to try out this guy's newsletter service, most reputable newsletter publishers offer a money back guarantee. Agora is doing a 30 day guarantee, here. I've seen up to multi-year guarantees for some of my employer's services.

     

    You're probably safe trying it out and just refunding if you don't like it.

     

    Hi scott,

    Have you read chris's book as yet? I quite like his ideas....im starting to fish around looking for quality businesses to keep/hold for forever and a day with great capital allocators at the helm.

     

    Chris made some suggestions (like softbank), have you got any thoughts on quality companies to look for at the moment?  Thanks

    Nick

    My portfolio of top capital allocators

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I would love to hear your thoughts on a portfolio I'm building.

    My goal for this portfolio, which is about 20% of my total invested assets, is to invest in the absolute best capital allocators/investors, and hold on to them for at least the next decade or two.

    This will be my main growth engine for the total portfolio, while the rest is mostly index stock/bonds based.

     

    My current picks are:

    BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway

    MKL - Markel Corporation

    FFH.TO - Fairfax Financial

    PSH.AS - Pershing Square Holdings

    TPOU.L - Third Point Offshore

    IEP - Icahn Enterprises

    BAM - Brookfield Asset Management

    HHC - Howard Hughes

     

    I plan to have them equally weighted (except maybe HHC, since it's related to PSH) and re-balance as the prices of each become more attractive.

     

    I've also considered many others, which for now I think I'll leave out:

    Y, WTM, WRB, LRE - all probably good insurers, but don't have great investors running the show.

    GLRE, TPRE - I don't like the added uncertainty of the reinsurance business (at least with MKL, FFH the business is solid). I would much prefer to invest directly with the investors (it's possible with Loeb, but not with Einhorn).

    L, LUK - both were great in the past but have severe management issues today. P/B is very attractive but I'm not looking for value/speculation in this segment of my portfolio, but to invest with the best of the best, so I'm leaving these two out.

     

    Others I'm still considering

    SIGB.L

    CRS.L

    RCP.L

    BH

    POW.TO

    SPLP

    HRG

    LMCA

    BVT

    SHLD

    OAK

    FRMO

    and whole bunch of others, but I'll cut off here.

     

    I think my main questions are:

    - Are my top picks solid? Do you think something is critically missing and should be removed?

    - Which companies can serve my goal besides the ones in my top picks (I'm considering adding a bunch of 2nd tier companies which might fit this criteria with a smaller stake for each).

    - Do you think these companies are worthy of holding for a decade or two? I don't want to switch/monitor them all the time.

     

    Adam,

     

    I'm currently going through a similar exercise myself...so it's great to read your post.

     

    It's interesting, FFH, BRK and MKL are all business that are predicated on the write insurance premiums and invest the excess float (that doesn't have to be reserved for prudential/payout requirements) model - ie get access to capital at low cost. I was reading something by Buffett the other day that highlighted, in his words, that not all Insurance businesses are actually able to write insurance premiums at a sufficient premium that ensure a float exists - he explicitly stated that he believed that GEICO was great at doing this...two thoughts going round in my mind:-

    1) "are FFH and MKL able to sustain insurance returns and thereby give themeselves access to the float better than BRK/GEICO can?"...

    2) Putting Point 1) aside, who out of FFH, BRK and MKL have better underlying operational longer term businesses that they have invested in? I don't know the answer to this....and would welcome thoughts.

     

    Even though Buffett is getting old, I'm getting the feeling that I'd rather overweight towards BRK rather than FFH /MKL.

     

    I'm also looking at GBLB - Groupe Bruxelles Lambert & HCHC (Phil Falcone ) -although I'm a little uncomftable about the debt position of HCHC (high)

     

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