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Steven B

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  1. It works even without a PAN card?
  2. IMHO there is a little misunderstanding w/r/t Buffett and Munger's 9% or treasury rate discount rate. They are using it as a way to compare all opportunities to each other. Most investors use it on a case by case basis to determine if a specific investment is undervalued. Then the discount rate should generally be your desired return (if you would be willing to buy it at the DCF price); you could be a prophet when it comes to forecasting cash flows but you'll still only earn your discount rate if everything goes perfectly.
  3. Hey all, I would love to get my hands on these-even willing to $$$ for them. If anyone would like to take me up on this please reply, or DM if you're worried about anonymity. Thanks.
  4. Thanks Parsad. I remember reading something along the lines of principal is backed by his personal guarantee and net worth, although can't remember where. What you said makes more sense though.
  5. I read somewhere that he did this, can anyone confirm? How long did he keep that up? What were the terms? All I can say is wow.
  6. Same as above. Besides for all the doomsayers you never know what might happen if they think your serious about fighting the "good" fight. Keep me posted as well. Actually, I'd like to hear more about the 20% for ten years part as well....
  7. But not only the CNBC guys, I'm talking investors who spend a lot of time getting face time and spinning tales of their "latticework of mental models" but brag that they don't spend a lot of time "marketing" because having AUM is so not what they want. Truth is, I'm conflicted but sometimes these guys come of as hypocritical, could be I'm wrong.
  8. Hey, Do the LPs of the so called Pop Culture Value Investors care that they don't spend any time on actual investing? There seems to be an awful lot of time "being generous with their knowledge (on TV etc.)". I understand the value of building a brand, I do. I'm just wondering what investors, some being rather sophisticated think about all that?
  9. Thanks everyone for the advance. I'll try a mixture of those strategies and I'll definitely look into preferred, though I don't understand yet how those won't lose value as rates rise as well.
  10. Yield. Yield. Yield. Everyone is searching for the elusive yield these days. Wanted to know what the board had to say about it, for instance do you believe that bonds are going to get destroyed with rising rates? What about alternative sources, say NNN REITS or online lenders such as prosper and lending club? Family members have given me their passive portfolios to manage along with the active part and they were in pretty vanilla 60/40s previously. Looking forward to hearing what y'all think.
  11. Snorky, If you're ever in Cleveland I owe you a beer. Thanks
  12. My wife works in the dentistry world. She's told me all about the Henry Schein and Patterson Companies. I was at a conference with her a while ago at the Javits Center and there are a ton of little guys with no name recognition trying to sell their products. There was a South Korean company that has gain market share for a "private label" style dental screws. 12) I would add Martin Marietta, Summit Materials, Vulcan Materials,etc. They are local monopolies protected by the cost of trucking. The barrier to entry is that it cost too much for competitors to truck their crushed rocks to their territory. Although a great business, they are cyclical. 13) Obvious the railroads would fall into these categories as it is nearly impossible to replicate the tracks, tunnels, and right of way. But it's a cyclical business nonethess Keep them coming guys, this is a great list to have BG, that's pretty funny about the Javits Center, I probably walked right past you. Patterson has been having trouble as of late but Schein keeps on plugging along. As Amazon (which was at the dental convention) starts to build market share that should further help Schein's iron grip on the dental market. I didn't go this year. But why would Amazon help Schein? What was Amazon doing there? They are getting into Dental products, and they would help Schein by taking out a lot of the little guys, especially the ones who try to be mini-Scheins (full service distribution and dental education and concierge). Speaking to a lot of these guys, they know it's coming. If you go next year drop a line. It gets pretty boring in between meetings.
  13. My wife works in the dentistry world. She's told me all about the Henry Schein and Patterson Companies. I was at a conference with her a while ago at the Javits Center and there are a ton of little guys with no name recognition trying to sell their products. There was a South Korean company that has gain market share for a "private label" style dental screws. 12) I would add Martin Marietta, Summit Materials, Vulcan Materials,etc. They are local monopolies protected by the cost of trucking. The barrier to entry is that it cost too much for competitors to truck their crushed rocks to their territory. Although a great business, they are cyclical. 13) Obvious the railroads would fall into these categories as it is nearly impossible to replicate the tracks, tunnels, and right of way. But it's a cyclical business nonethess Keep them coming guys, this is a great list to have BG, that's pretty funny about the Javits Center, I probably walked right past you. Patterson has been having trouble as of late but Schein keeps on plugging along. As Amazon (which was at the dental convention) starts to build market share that should further help Schein's iron grip on the dental market.
  14. The issue is this: he started with a few million bucks and had incredible performance. Most of the initial money was his own. On the back of that performance he raised a TON of money. That new money has under performed the indexes. This is called a money weighted return. His money weighted returns are poor. This is typical of most fund managers. They have a strategy that does well with small sums but fails to scale. The other issue is he is keeping alive the myth that he's compounded at 20% a year for 10 years plus. Yet that's not true, his performance isn't anywhere near that. Yet he does nothing to clarify the myth, he just lets it grow. I think the hero worship is overdone. He's just a guy. He had good ideas with smaller money, he's had trouble scaling. Maybe he'll bounce back, who knows. My own view is he's a brilliant business-person. He started with $0 and created $40+m of wealth for himself. If clients are dissatisfied they can leave, and some have. Regarding Klarman, his performance sucked for years as well, in the absolute gutter. In 2000 $50k invested in his fund for 10 years had turned into $169k verses $273k in the S&P. By 2007 he was up 337% over the past 10 years compared to 77% for the S&P. He made ALL of his returns on the back of the 2000 crash. But it's worth noting his style changed too. As assets and the market changed he changed as well, and eventually found a formula that worked. In 2007 he was 50% in cash going into the crash, he took advantage again by minimizing losses and then being able to scoop up bargains further juicing returns. I was partially joking and partially not about Pabrai's next 15 years of performance. Maybe he'll discover a formula that works for him. It took Klarman 10 years of under performance before he hit his stride. A lot of these guys have this myth that they're investing super-heros. And they keep their performance secret. Yet when you see the numbers the myth is shattered in a lot of cases. Another bone to pick I have is with managers who only release their letters and performance in good years. I will credit Pabrai for not shutting down and starting a new fund. That's the bottom of the barrel in my mind. Not to revive a dead thread (although I am), I agree with most of Oddball's comments save for the Klarman stuff. I'm pretty sure Klarman's uptick in returns weren't purely because of a "style" change. Sure he was evolving as an investor and always kept searching for less efficient markets but I think if you read his letters from the late 90's (http://www.safalniveshak.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Seth-Klarman-Baupost-Group-Letters.pdf) it's clear that he believed in his strategy and that eventually value would recover.
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