Foreign Tuffett
-
Posts
1,425 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Foreign Tuffett
-
-
You seem to be unable to distinguish between the gaming industry (which has never been better) and the equity prices (which are obviously doing poorly). Just because the stock prices are down doesn't mean the gaming industry is dying, as you heavily allude to.
With that fundamental bias, there's no point in continuing this conversation further.
Yeah, I agree with you that Castanza's post is all over the place. It conflates all sorts of different issues and games (Diablo Immortal hasn't even been released yet!) in ways that are not productive.
The ATVI thread has lots of clear thinking on the video game industry in general. If it were up to me (and it's not) I would confine all video game related posts exclusively to that thread.
Diablo Immortal is a huge disappointment before launch. They went against their entire player base by choosing to only launch it on mobile. That was my point. I recommend watching the Q&A.
But if I'm wrong then I'm wrong. That's how I view the gaming industry and it's enough to keep me out of it.
It's not that your conclusion is necessary wrong, it's that some of what you're posting doesn't make any sense.
In your initial post you listed games that were "highly anticipated", but proved to be disappointing on release. I could quibble with a number of these, but only mentioned one in my earlier post: Diablo Immortal.
Not only was Diablo Immortal not highly anticipated, Blizzard's core fan base didn't even want the game at all. They wanted a Diablo 4 announcement. Also, Diablo Immortal may prove to be a highly successful mobile game. As I mentioned before, it hasn't even launched yet. You seem to recognize most of this on some level, yet you are doubling down on your contention that it was a "highly anticipated" game that disappointed on release.
This will probably be my last response in this thread. I'd rather eat a bucket full of sand than continue this inane and largely pointless conversation.
-
You seem to be unable to distinguish between the gaming industry (which has never been better) and the equity prices (which are obviously doing poorly). Just because the stock prices are down doesn't mean the gaming industry is dying, as you heavily allude to.
With that fundamental bias, there's no point in continuing this conversation further.
Yeah, I agree with you that Castanza's post is all over the place. It conflates all sorts of different issues and games (Diablo Immortal hasn't even been released yet!) in ways that are not productive.
The ATVI thread has lots of clear thinking on the video game industry in general. If it were up to me (and it's not) I would confine all video game related posts exclusively to that thread.
-
HHC
Same here. That went well.
I pushed the sell button on this one a little too quickly this morning, which was an unforced error. That said, it's hard to complain about the results for a position I held less than 48 hours. I thought it was a little too cheap in the mid $90s, but I'm not nearly as bullish on HHC as some of this forum are.
I also sold my small Bayer position this morning.
-
KTB
"Cowboy hat from Gucci, Wrangler on my booty." I need to read that S-1, but I am lazy AF.
Posted a deep dive on this yesterday:
https://lowtideinvestments.com/2019/06/18/kontoor-brands/
Enjoyed reading that. Thanks for sharing. I suppose my similar, sort of opportunity cost for a KTB position might be CPRI or TPR.
Thank you for sharing your research. I have been working on KTB as well.
I was far from impressed with the Q1 results KTB released today. Not a total surprise that Q1 was weak though, since VF's Q1 earnings still included Kontoor.
-
David Webb has provided some thoughts on the current political situation in Hong Kong:
-
In the absence of anyone else, I volunteer to mentor you. We can start....right now!
"Drop and give me twenty DCFs!"
"What would Buffett say!? He would say that model is a pile of hot garbage!"
"Ben Graham would be disgusted if he knew that this is what value investing has become!"
"Even Munger can see that's poor work, and he's nearly blind!"
-
Crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and hear the lamentations of their women!
-
Joban Kaihatsu (1782) update based in 3/31/19 financials. All #s are Japanese Yen.
Stock Price: 5020
Per Share Dividend: 270
Market Cap: 3.936B
NCAV: 4.651B
Long Term Investment Securities: 1.364B
TTM Operating Profit: $1.706B
-
Anyone willing to help me get up to speed on this? Is there a bull case at the current price? If so, what is it?
-
Note that Japanese markets are going to be closed until May 7th.
-
Below are two articles that I think are germane to this topic. As the founder of Varecs Partners, a Tokyo-based fund that specializes in small Japanese companies, Jiro Yasu has a good understanding of the types of companies mentioned in this thread.
http://www.varecs.com/en/2015/necessity-is-the-mother-of-invention/
http://www.varecs.com/en/2017/necessity-is-the-mother-of-invention-vol-2/
-
Annual report is out. Cliffs notes:
Trust fund assets and under management and revenues up +15% YoY after stagnating for a while
Earnings ~$70/share ( some extraordinary gains from 1031 swap of RE included)
Book value ~$1050/ share
~$600/ share in bonds and cash
Some investments in RE and startup ventures initiated ($20/ share)
$53 revenue/ share in real estate rents
0.52 acre/ share CA farmland
I am very pleased with the pickup of the trust business.
Thank you for the update on this.
-
I think in a prolonged period of low interest rates, many investors failed to recognize early on that the "multiple" used for valuation can be a bit more generous than during normal times... that's just my observation.
Very true. I would add that interest rates have stayed lower for longer, defying the expectations of many investors.
-
Possibly, but if it is a material amount of tax you would be double paying by doing it that way. All the tax paid to another state can be claimed as a credit on your home state, but only if you actually file the return in that state, not just paying taxes after the fact. Most LPs aren't that bad, like oil and gas ones usually throw off losses anyway, but some hedge fund K-1s can be terrible.
Fortress Investment Group
#NeverForgetNeverForgive
-
I owned it early 2018. What baffles me about this name: why did they do an IPO? According to their filings it was to raise cash for 'investments' or whatever it was but they haven't done anything since and are now paying out special dividends. Also the IPO was at (what seems to me) a low price. Not something I could get 100% completely comfortable with for the long term so I sold it after the run-up.
Looks like you may have been right to sell when you did, as the company has sold down by maybe ~15% over the past few trading days after an earnings report that featured
1) slowing revenue growth
2) weak gross margins due to higher raw materials costs and tariffs
3) A $0.06 HKD final dividend
4) more details on a plan to purchase four "nanospider" machines from a company based in the Czech Republic. These appear to be some sort of cutting-edge textile weaving machines that King's Flair thinks will provide them with a leg up (8 legs up?) on the competition. I'm skeptical of an asset light business making a large capital expenditure like this, but management seems competent, so I'm inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
I am going to hold, as my thesis isn't broken. This is still cheap and still cash generative.
-
This name has already been mentioned by mjohn707, rukawa, and Janeo, but I figured I would throw my two cents in.
Sanko Co (6964) (per Bloomberg) "manufactures, assembles, and markets metal molding, press, and mechatronics products. The Company also makes electronic power tools, precision parts for automobiles, air-conditioning units, and plastic moldings." Sanko is based in Shiojiri , Japan. If you've never heard of Shiojiri, that's probably because it's population is well under 100K. With all due respect to the residents of Shiojiri, this is a boring business based in a boring place.
@ 449 a share Sanko trades at a ~57% discount to $0 enterprise value. If you add the long-term investment securities it owns to current assets, it trades ~55% below NCAV. Company has been solidly profitable over the last several years. However, as mjohn707 mentioned earlier in this thread, results in fiscal years 2015 and 2016 were around break even. Finally, this is a very small company, the market cap is the equivalent of just over $36 million USD.
-
Joban Kaihatsu (1782) is a construction contractor based in Iwaki, Japan. Pays a decent dividend, is currently generating solid operating profits, trades at a ~23% discount to NCAV, and, once you factor the investment securities it owns, trades ~39% below enterprise value.
Hat tip to "Blue Tower Asset Management" for this idea.
-
I owned it early 2018. What baffles me about this name: why did they do an IPO? According to their filings it was to raise cash for 'investments' or whatever it was but they haven't done anything since and are now paying out special dividends. Also the IPO was at (what seems to me) a low price. Not something I could get 100% completely comfortable with for the long term so I sold it after the run-up.
That's an interesting point about the IPO. It looks like they planned on using nearly 50% of the proceeds to buy a HQ property, but never followed through. This is a rare example of company in Greater China not pulling the trigger on a real estate purchase.
Page #217 below
https://www.kingsflair.com.hk/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Prospectus-ENG.pdf
-
Hi guys,
I was wondering what is your approach to assessing a company from a qualitative standpoint short of calling the company directly, e.g. its industry, competitors, structural specifics of the business, its management, pricing power, cyclicality.
As an example, I was reading a Form 10 issued by Brunswick Corporation in regard of its fitness equipment division spinoff. The entire industry of commercial fitness equipment is estimated to be as small as 3 billions dolls, so there is not much information online regarding the industry specifics. Those researches that I stumbled upon cost north of 4000 USD, which I am obviously not going to pay.
I know this isn't answering your question, but I would be careful with this particular spinoff unless it sells off severely post-spin.
From the Form 10: "In fiscal year 2017, sales to our largest customer, Planet Fitness, made pursuant to an exclusive contract, accounted for approximately 12% of our total sales. In 2018, we were involved in contract negotiations with Planet Fitness. The resulting new contract with Planet Fitness is not exclusive to us, but allows Planet Fitness franchises to purchase from Life Fitness or two of its competitors."
-
Not a David Webb holding, but looks promising.....
Kings Flair International @ $1.69 -- trades ~50% above NCAV / 5.15X EV/TTM OP / ~8.3% TTM dividend yield. This business has consistently generated strong cash flows.
Forager Funds (no affiliation), an Australian asset management fund, owns shares. If you dig around their website you can find some brief commentary.
-
I've looked at some of them and went with Lion Rock Group which is a pretty significant position for me. While not as cheap on a NCAV basis etc. as some of the above, it's cheap AND growing value nicely. It's a high quality business in a boring and tough industry but with high quality management. Capital allocation is stellar, and management has a lot of skin in the game.
Would you care to expand on this? While I only spent about 5 minutes looking at it earlier this week, my first impression was that it is a more-or-less fairly valued. What's the special sauce here? Why is it a high quality business? What make the capital allocation so good?
-
Has anyone else gone through his list of holdings from late last year? He definitely holds some cheap stocks.
https://webb-site.com/dbpub/webbchips.asp
Sun Hing Vision @ 2.89 -- Trades ~40% above NCAV / ~6.5x EV/TTM OP / over 6% TTM dividend yield / Recently bought a property to use as its HQ starting in 2021
Lung Kee @ $3.48 -- Trades ~44% above NCAV / ~5.25x EV/TTM OP / ~11.5% TTM dividend yield / Also owns some excess real estate
Ming Fai @ $1.09 -- Trades ~28% above NCAV / ~4.6X EV/TTM OP / ~6.4% TTM dividend yield /
-
I never said we "knew". I simply said that based on the article it doesn't look like he's a great investor. I have no reason to believe that. In fact, there is plenty of evidence to suggest otherwise by "creating math" and making conservative assumptions.
Also as far as the 3 bailout stocks go. It looks like he under performed the market even with the 3 home runs. Just imagine what it would look like if he missed out on one of them? How bad must his other picks be if he had those and still didn't beat the market? It certainly seems more like luck than skill.
For what it's worth if someone had bought only berkshire (or the S&P 500!) with $50 million in 1981 and never sold, they'd be worth more (or a lot) than $2.3 billion. ;)
This hits on an issue I have with super concentrated buy-and-hold strategies: It's tough to figure out if you're generating actual alpha, or if you're just experiencing positive/negative variance.
-
Yeah - who knows why people think it's worth $17 million on an exchange and $13 million over the counter, but I got really interested today. I still think this company gets sold by next April. And I think they sell it for $50 million give or take. I wonder if they will quantify how much they believe SEC reporting is costing them beyond what publishing simple financial statements on their website will cost. SG&A is $2million a quarter so there may be a material savings. I owned some going in to today at $2.20 average cost. But I own a lot more coming out of today.
7.46 million shares outstanding. CEO has a bunch of his family's capital tied up in it and is getting old and tired. Sardar's put extension buys them a bit over a year of time.
Wow..stock was down 25% on delisting news.
CCA Industries, Inc. Announces Plan to Delist from NYSE American and Deregister Its Common Stock $CAW https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17402726
Would you be willing to share the thought process behind the ~$50 million # ?
IFRS 16
in General Discussion
Posted
I continue to use a ouija board to calculate EV.
All jokes aside, the economic reality hasn't changed, right? So I continue to calculate EV the same way.