Uccmal

Tbv before Christmas. Didn't we think it might hit TBV by Eric's birthday which I think was April 20th, ot was it the 10 th. lol FWIW, I am expecting some bumps in the road, perhaps this week coming. Although I dont really see how institutions can avoid buying. Wouldn't want to be left out on the pick of the year, eh?

Just for context. BAC stock price last year at this time was around 14.75. A year ago we were steeped in the Greek/Eu crisis - not much changed there. But everything else has changed since for BAC, most of it positive, as outlined on this board, over and over. Since the stress test institutional buyers appear to have clearance to start accumulating again. The not so smart money is just starting to buy. Soon to be followed by the real dumb money.

say10-15% at just above 8 in BAC spread between $7 2013s, 7.50 2014s, $10 2014s, and $12 2014 s I got earlier this week. sold my 10 2013 s in the last couple of days as a risk man. exercise. Some warrants and some common in the RSP. another 10-12 % in WFC And JPm together. I hadn't seen a pitch like this since 2009 spring. My problem now is leaving things alone. The WFC and JPM are all in the money significantly. The BAC is such a huge position but then I have waited nearly 2 years to double the investment in 2 or 3 weeks. Should it rapidly rise above TBV I will have to look at further risk reduction, either through selling or buying low value puts to stave off the tax issue.

FT, Ben Graham at the senate committe circa 1970: And Mr. Graham, how do you know these special sitations will rise to intrinsic value? G: that is one of the mysteries of our business. I must find the proper quote - its been rattling around in my head all day today.

Back up the truck was several months ago, when a handful of us were backing up the truck. Now it's stay the course on BAC and WFC, and look for other ideas for capital. Cheers! You could do worse than putting money into BAC or WFC at current prices. Actually, it sort of depends on the rate of return you're expecting from investing and how concentrated you already are in those names. I likely will not be adding to those particular names. I was still buying options in and around 8. I think this will sprint to TBV now. I bet its past $9 tomorrow, and $10 by weeks end. But then, My powers of prediction aren't as good since I lost my tin foil hat. Well, weve made $9.00 on schedule. :P

blah, blah, blah, blah.... This was cleared years ago.

Thanks for the info. I hadn't actually checked. Unless they offer me a substantial premium I will hang onto mine.

The prospectus for the warrants is on EDGAR, in or around Spring 2009. The warrants are dilution potected, in the case of a common stock issue. They are not buy back protected. In the event of a buy back you get a larger pie piece if you keep the warrants, same as holding the common. It would not surprise me if these banks buy in some warrants at some point in time through the open market, probably closer to conversion dates. For now, I cant imagine a CEO forgoing his bonus to reduce dilution 6 years down the road.

Your reasoning is sound. 30 days transaction free both directions and you can claim the tax loss.

Back up the truck was several months ago, when a handful of us were backing up the truck. Now it's stay the course on BAC and WFC, and look for other ideas for capital. Cheers! You could do worse than putting money into BAC or WFC at current prices. Actually, it sort of depends on the rate of return you're expecting from investing and how concentrated you already are in those names. I likely will not be adding to those particular names. I was still buying options in and around 8. I think this will sprint to TBV now. I bet its past $9 tomorrow, and $10 by weeks end. But then, My powers of prediction aren't as good since I lost my tin foil hat.

The dividend has to hit 0.34/q before the strike adjusts. It will be at least two years before that. My warrants are now trading positive from my purchase price. I can live with itw the awesome resukts for now. If WFc goes above 34.01 in the near future (tomorrow maybe) then these warrants will be in the money.

Well C probably would pass if Pandit only took 3 million instead of 53 million, considering his "awards" come out of tier one.

kraven, & oddball, both excellent posts. I have noticed over the years that some people get caught in details. I maintain, as per Klarman, that every company has black box components to it. No one, even Buffett can know even a fraction of the details of a company they dont control. And no one can control for all factors. At a certain point you invest, or dont invest, and handicap according to your experience and confort.

Its an interesting question. The better question to ask myself is when do I get the best results? The answer is when I have gotten to know a company over time. I first held BAC warrants nearly 2 years ago, shortly after they were released. I have read something about BAC nearly every day since then, including last years 10k, and this years 10qs. I also follow all of the discussions on the board here about the investment. Another example is Seaspan which I have held for over 3 years. I have bought on dips and sold some on rises over that time. Examples of inadequate research or too hard pile are Yellow Media, or RIM.

Indeed, I for one think that being a megabank with a rock solid blance sheet may not affect ROE as much as people seem to believe. There will be as yet unseen benefits to being a SIFI bank. The invisible hand will work it out one way or another. If their ROE collapses then shareholders will pressure them to become non SIFI banks through spinoffs, or splitting up regionally. The regulators have to hand them some good juicy bones to make all this work. I noticed recently that BAC and WFC have a whole new business involved in health care accounts related to Obamacare. Both are now into the hundreds of millions with these. I dont have the details, unfortunately.

I dont see this as a bad thing for BAC or anyone else for that matter. The worst case is something like: BAC - you need to raise 10 B more or 20 B to protect your depositors. Then everyone knows where they stand. These tests will only strengthen a banks reputation. I see a rally across the board, however the results turn out. Except maybe JPM which is already returning to value - the market seems to see it as having no issues. The sooner this is all out in the open the better.

The oil/gas differential has been way out of whack for years now. Until more natural gas cogen plants are built or gas becomes a wodespread transport fuel that's not going to change. LNG would bring prices up but that is years away. The supply side needs to come under control. I have been looking at Encana. Wont buy until the hedges start to come off, and the dividend is getting squeezed. ECA is around $19 right now. I am thinking closer to $10. It is the second largest NA gas producer to XOM. Thanks for the tip on Peyto Biaggio. Will have a look. To all board members. It wasn't so long ago that Oil was close to 10 a barrel, and then along came peak oil etc. Nat gas could easily move into the sub 2 range for a long time. From my perspective as the US gains energy independence, and IT technology is integrated into transport, transmission, and alt energy sources the price of oil could very well come way down as well. So I wait. Got no cash anyway which keeps me from doing dumb things.

Upsetting news for Rick Santorum, on the other hand it does explain him and his voters a bit better: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-07/humans-and-gorillas-closer-than-thought-study-of-great-ape-genome-finds.html

shlo, dont blame you: Sanjeev Parsad - i think his call sign is Parsad. valuinv - Nearly every time I have sold (wrote) puts I have had to buy out of them at inopportune times - They are my single largest money losing strategy. I prefer my downside to be capped. When these move against you they really move. It is just not worth it to get an extra few percent. Easier and safer to buy something with a big fat dividend using leverage. Buying puts as protection has cost me some money but generally it has been useless and created drag on a rising position. Economically better to just reduce a position. That being said, If BAC goes to $20 by the end of the year, I might buy low strike puts to protect my 2014s. They have their uses.

I have learned from board members here and practice, practice, practice. As per Packer's comments I only use Leap calls, these days. Basically a levered bet based on a pre-assessed stock. Al's rules (apply only to me): 1) leap calls only 2) must have high liquidity and only in US optioms markets. 3) only for use with stocks that have already been determined to be undervalued by a significant margin - WEB's approximately right. 4) No writing puts 5) no buying puts any more (may break this one if another crisis is looking inevitable but that is a few years out). As to the WFC warrants any method of valuing them is useless. They are near the strike price these days. They are trading at 9.30. Basically its a 3:1 leveraged bet. You get exposure to 3 x as much stock holding the warrants. From my perspective the odds of Wells being below $43 dollars in 6 years is pretty low providing they dont do something colossaly stupid. So the downside is limited, and the upside is probably good. Will it be better than holding the common: anyones guess.

No kidding....

Tornados.... Another Billion hit to the industry = hard market. Not looking forward to my next insurance bill, mind you.

The stock will have recovered before they can put a meaningful dent in the share count. At the risk of setting off another round I would rather see the cash than stock buy backs any day, regardless of the tax implications.

I haven't read Turner's blog. Did see him speak many years ago. He puts on a hell of a show and makes alot of money on the circuit. Worth considering why he says what he says. I recently went through the circus of getting a Heloc, for an addition, and a renovation. My mortgage is held by a mortgage company, that doesn't do Helocs. We went to TD where all of our brokerage accounts are held. They assessed the house, conservatively, IMO, wanted to see pay records, tax assessments, the first lien mortgage paperwork. They ultimately agreed to give us a HEloc up to 80% of their assessed value minus the first lein mortgage owing. Imo, it was pretty stringent. We got no credit for the assets in the brokerage account which would cover the HEloc by at least 3 x in a down market. IMO, the big 5 will not lose much in a housing downturn. I really have no idea where people are getting this speculative money from. I am guessing it is financing through developers, and non-bank mortgage companies, and of course the CMHC. There seems to be an overbuild of condos in Toronto. Ultimately, there may be a correction but it will in no way equal what happened in parts of the US. The market is so tiny, and so much of the population just does not participate. Prices have risen faster than average the last few years but not enough that you could make money flipping properties. Prior to the recent runup prices here were stagnant from 1990 until 2003. As for housing as an investment, it is just not something that ever turned my crank. The frictional costs are too high, and I am not keen on being a landlord. For me the house we live in is a place to live, not an investment. I never hoped to do better than inflation. If the shit hits the fan in a big way it is nice to have a roof over your head thats mostly paid for.

As insiders Ffh, & Pabrai would have to announce they were exiting the stock. If they had simply announced this without the Abh agreement what does anyone here think the stock would trade at. My guess would be that they would have had to dump it way below $1 to get rid of their holdings. That would have killed everyone. We dont really know who received MERC's original offer or what it was. Keeping in mind that FFH speaks to Fair Friendly Acquisitions. This is not an acquisition. Prem has a reputation for being ruthless with his terms of acquisitions or financial support, similar to Buffett. I generally avoid investing along side FFH prefering to stay clear of things they hold. For me it makes more sense to invest with them. FBK was an exception since I held it before FFH was ever involved.