Uccmal

1) market price 2) discounted cash flow models I suspect the secret with railroads is the partial moat, and the assets not on the annual filings such as real estate written down decades ago. Rail is the cheapest way to transport bulk goods.

I wouldn't rush. It's still good value and you probably wont regret it, long term, but its proven to be volatile, that's for sure.

Nice summary. Probably echos my reasons. I have sold about 25% of my FFH holdings, to both raise cash, and invest elsewhere, notably AIG, and JPM recently. I have been selling JPM, BAC, and AIG leaps very slowly into the rally. Mostly just raising cash, albeit slowly.

Over the past year Ffh volality has been about 4% either side of $400. If any of your 4.15 stocks went down to 3.87 you wouldn't miss a beat.

Vinod, those are very valid points about RCA and millionaire employees who exit for more fun elsewhere. The biggest bear case for Apple for me is their success. To quote a friend of mine "that's an awfully attractive honey pot they are sitting on".

Interesting article Sanjeev, I was thinking of linking it to the Apple thread as an illustration of how fast things can change, in a ten thousand year old industry.... :-X

valueinv, Lets try inverting this. Approaching it as a value investment: My answers are in brackets. 1) What is AAPLs intrinsic value - or book value - or sale value? ( book value is easy to find). - the rest I have no idea). ( book value is nearly entirely made up of cash at the moment - patents and real estate are worth marginally more than at Rimm) 2) what is its PE (12-14 - not unreasonable - say fairly valued assumming of course that earnings continue to maintain). 3) What is Apple's growth rate/ or shrinkage rate going forward? (no idea again - and you wont convince me of any number you produce unless it is a negative number) 4) They have alot of cash - once that is dividended out or blown away on bad investments, what will happen to the stock price? 5) Who are Apples competitors and what is their status. (extremely powerful existing competitors in EVERY field AAPL is in - then there are the unknown up and comers). In every piece of analysis on Apple there are assumptions that they will continue to be a superior marketing machine, and that consumers will continue to love their products. This is not possible. It has never, ever occurred for any company in history. At various times in history companies have been ascendant for various reasons: Motorola, Nokia, Msft, Dell, The Nifty 50 of the 1970s, Ibm, GE, HP, Aol, Netscape, RCA, Standard Oil, etc., etc, etc. No one has ever defied the law of gravity indefinitely, and APPL wont, no matter what. Will Apple live on for a long time. Of that I have little doubt, but more like MSFT or IBM - i.e. Half its present value. And no, I wont bet you.

Very good article from NP: http://opinion.financialpost.com/2012/06/11/book-excerpt-lipophobia-and-the-bad-science-diet/ A.

Valueinv, there was nothing short term, or specific about my predictions. I was very clear in my analogy that I was looking 3-10 years out, and saying that it was not predictable where AAPL would be, hence, not a value investment from my perspective.

Valueinv, My own dirty tricks being used against me. I recall offering Peter Burke a similar bet about subscribers to RIM increasing. He passed, I was actually right, but I wouldn't make the same bet now, only 8 months later. :). Betting against you with cash is the same as shorting AAPL which I wouldn't do either. No telling how long it will kick around this stock price before coming down a little. The fact its share price is no longer rising says something to me, as a value investor. The market is unwilling to price in a greater risk premium that they can continue to pull rabbits. I stick to my assertions in that past post that there is alot more that can go wrong for AApL going forward than right. BTW, I love my IPad. I also love my house but wouldn't buy it at 2012 prices in Toronto.

People seem to foget how much can change in a few years. I was out for a run this weekend and got to thinking about my life. I spend the bulk of my days when not at work with 3 other people I did not know a little over ten years: my wife, and two kids. My way of saying that neither the tech industry, nor Apple will be the same in ten years, or even three years for that matter. Either, internal, or external factors will normalize Apple at some point. As a value investor I wouldn't touch that stock with a barge pole.

Cardboard et al, I am glad your doing my worrying for me... Seems to me that the worst outcome is now in the stock price which is off nearly 20 B since this came up again.

I concur, Uv has been used for decades in health care settings such as dialysis rooms, where it is turned on all night. Also used in water treatment. Wands are in use for backcountry water treatment. In that case the camper is motivated to do it properly. I dont see hotel cleaners doing a good job (in general). 20 seconds is a long time to wait when you have a quota.

I cant speak to their newsletter specifically but Contra the Herd has an extremely good, close to 20 year track record. They only run their own money, and limit subscriptions to 1000, so their ideas dont get too diluted. I finally met Benj Gallander at this years FFH dinner. I believe that Norm R knows him quite well. I have no shortage of ideas right now, just a cash shortage, and a pile of badly performing stocks. The last time I was completely out of ideas was From summer 2007 to summer 2008. Next time I face that problem I will move to a very high cash level rather than going down the quality curve. And find something else to do.

Now, thats just gross... Lol.

Lol, I have used a couple of their products. They aren't bad. Expensive, but cheaper than a fast food meal. If you really worried you can dehydrate your own, and cool store it the way your grandparents did. I hear the other option is to buy McDonalds burger and fries and put it in a plastic container.

At this point in time Germany owes it to the rest of Europe to get on with a proper bailout. Germany is reporting Q after Q of stellar economic news. They are benefitting from the low Euro. If they want the system to stay together they need to further integrate. Otherwise, it all falls apart, and Germany loses because they are part of a shrunken Euro, that gets highly valued and kills their exports and their economy. and they completely lose the ability to export to Spain, Greece, Italy. Obviously, Spain's economic minister, and pretty much everyone else (Read: Obama) is fed up with Germany's selfish stance. Merkel is an intelligent woman. She knows all this and will make the concessions in some face saving manner. I expect there is alot of behind the scenes work going on to create a more integrated system. Its not as if everyone involved is sitting there Holding their breath waiting for Germany to suddenly decide it will embrace a wholesale bailout.

The premise of the balance sheet recession and sustained low rates strikes me as fairly sound at the moment. I would be disinclined to short any bonds for the reason that nothing may happen at all for years. An alternative is to buy shares of companies who can issue long bonds at close to the 10 or 30 year rates, turn around and make buckets of money off it. JPM did this last summer. I recall MSFT and GE doing this as well. I am sure there were others. Of course JPM squandered the advantage. Long leap pos: GE, JPm

Probably be a few law suits - ;D

No kidding Have a look at the housing headlines. Las Vegas bldg boom, house prices down, house prices up in 20 cities, rent to housing ratios back to 98-2000 levels.... Just way too many surveys and bad information. Never mind that everything everyone reacts to this week will be revised in 3 weeks.

Not really related to mouthwash, but these things will change billions of lives: http://www.steripen.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LifeStraw especially the life straw. No power required. And composting toilets while were at it. And the humble solar panel. I recently met a Navajo fellow who has lived off the grid his entire life. The Nation bought them some solar panels a few years ago and they now have electicity. Add a solar panel with rechargeable batteries and you can now use UV to treat your water.

Yes, another one of those oh so useful BS statistics. Up there with "100 % chance of worldwode recession".

Yes, there is the lower return method, especially when your currency appreciates 50% over 8 yrs against the USD.

Ya gotta love it. How do you define a "Global Recession". Please enlighten. Does it occur when: 1- 51% of the worlds countries are in recession 2- 100% (99% for Eric) of the worlds countries are in recesssion. 3- The worlds GDP or equivalent drops. And then, how do you define it according to duration: 1) 1 month 2) 1 Q, etc. And since we never actually know the real GDP/GNP stats until months into a recession, maybe its already come, and gone. Alot of Bullshit, if you ask me.

Lol, I pay up for a few things: Ultralight backpacking equipment Vehicles - I pay a reasonable price to get a High Quality Vehicle - There is nothing I hate worse than going to the repair garage and being forced to pay up when you dont expect it. Insurance - drivers & household - I dont buy it based on price so much as knowing the coverage will be unquestioned. My Ipad - the most useful tool I have ever owned. Vacations - Prefer adventure travel to cruises, or beach vacations. These days I look at online reviews for larger items I am looking at. Basically trying to get price for value Sex... Oooops...... :-).