Uccmal

I especially like #1, #13, #4, and # 25 http://www.businessinsider.com/50-unfortunate-truths-about-investing-2013-11 Hereon referred to as rule 13. 13. You don't understand a big bank's balance sheet. The people running the place and their accountants don't, either. Cheers, A.

I think tipping should be banned in favour of higher wages for people in the "tipping" industries. No tip restaurants have a record of better service... look it up. I am not talking about low end places.

Life expectancy would improve by 3 years. The real problem isn't cancer -- it's that our cells divide 20 times and then die (I think it's 20, could be wrong on the number). EDIT: quick google search suggests 52 times Just about diddly squat. Matters to the individuals, but not in aggregate. In fact the effect may be a mass negative on employment.

I am going to give away all my money to create foundations for neutron bomb development, and biological weapons enhancement..... yaa, just kidding. Lets rephrase the question. How many of those who have commented on this thread given away 1% of their wealth this year? I know I haven't. Please dont answer that question. It is just food for thought. How about 10% of your time to some cause that doesn't pay you anything? I have likely done better in this department. At what personal dollar value do you think you can start giving away 1% per year. 1 million = 10000 10 million = 100000 etc. We all know how compounding works. The last 10 or 15 years the sheer dollar value of his wealth probably compounded faster than he could conceive, especially in his 80s and beyond.

This whole conversation is nuts. Preventing Iran from having nuclear capability wont do anything to prevent possible terrorism by nuclear. Worldwide intelligence is the only way. The farce of looking for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq has nothing to do with intelligence capabilities. I postulate that the number one and two objectives of the CIA,RCMP, and equivalents in the rest of the world, is prevention of nuclear terrorism, and biological terrorism. If anything I am far more worried about some nutcase rogue group developing a vicious form of influenza that kills 30 or 40 % of the populous in one year. As to Iran. I would say get that country into the worldwide fold as soon as possible. Stable middle class countries are alot less likely to go to war. This country is not North Korea. Finally, it is never the obvious things that take down the markets.

I vote for take the new opportunity. You never know where things lead. I think it would be exciting to spend time getting paid to study the economics of various countries. Maybe you could even negotiate some real life visits. In all my jobs except one, I was involved in working as a consultant/contractor or other capacity where I deal with industrial processes. This is priceless to my investing. I have probably been involved with a thousand different organizations over the years, in a totally non financial capacity. I have a very macro viewpoint of industry, and government as a result. I know how things are made from start to finish, include all about the regulation along the way. Very few people in the investment business can describe how a car bumper is made, and visualize it, and map out the entire process in a few minutes on a sheet of paper. p.s. I agree with removing your picture as your avatar. You never know. That is why I post under uccmal still, even though I have met dozens of board members in person.

I think I used to hold Pennwest when it was a trust. It is certainly messy right now. Rick George has bought around 7-8 million dollars in shares so far. Now, I am sure this is not all of his net worth by any means, but if anyone knows what this company's assets are worth he would be that person. About half price of its supposed NAV. Financials and production seems to have stabilized for now. Now, if I am right there should be alot of tax loss selling, starting i. a couple of weeks, especially in a year when everyone wants to offset gains made elsewhere. It is certainly on my watch list.

I have a question. Is the evidence that has led to the fine, and SACs expulsion, available for civil trials? Seems to me Lawyers are going to be sifting through it seeing what they can sue SAC for thats already been convicted upon. I wouldn't think this is anywhere near the end game for Steve.

Not really true. WEB is contributing to the obesity epidemic with his KO investment and as more studies come out and more people (as well as governments) recognize this, I think you will start seeing the first signs of evaporation in the coke moat in the coming decade. I'm not worried about the future of steak houses. Well, then he will be part of the cause of the greenhouse gas problem. I mean, come on, Prem, do something right! Kraven, I hate to be the one to break this to you... but you and Mrs. Kraven, and the little kravens are part of the greenhouse gas problem, especially after those bean burritos.... I think this is a good acquisition, finally. Although I never eat there - too pricey - the parking lots are always full. Did I say it was too pricey.... Kind of like Sees Candy.

Thanks Tom, Isn't it Munger who says Invert, always invert? My wife and I were discussing the role of luck in success. If you look at many of the recent Tech companies it is very hard to remove luck from the equation. From MSFT to Twitter and all points in between. Isn't the reason we are value investors easily demonstrated by the fact that the vast majority of mutual funds perform worse than the S&P 500. You need only look at what slightly below average does, not even spectacular failures. By studying value investing and the statistics around it, we are endeavouring to reduce randomness from the situation, or if you like, turn luck in our favour. And of course, leverage goes both ways, but its nastiest cut is on the way down.

It has been a great trading stock. I bought last week, and sold at least the same amount the last three days. Tax time is going to be hell, but there are worse problems. Now for the bad news....pleeeze!

I concur. The very biggest integrateds can buy good assets when they need to add reserves. They can cherry pick among the smaller companies. I dont own Exxon. If I wanted exposure to O&G it would be on my short list. I see it as an energy company rather than an oil company. As alternatives become a greater piece of the pie XOM will just redirect cash flow that way. I wonder if this is what Buffett sees. He would certainly have a good handle on the sector via Mid-American. He is also reaching the end game. The list of acquisitions that will move the needle is getting ever smaller.

Interesting topic, if a little premature. It takes deeper thinking than just whether people will have accidents or need insurance. Will we even need to own cars? Doesn't it make vastly more sense to operate as fleets. Today, you drive 40 miles to work,pay for parking, drive home, and park your car in your driveway where it sits for hours unused. Or, you drive to the train station, pay to park, take the train to work - the car sits idle most of the day. My family operates two cars, which sit in the driveway most of the time. With a fleet concept, you pre book a car to come get you, drive you to public transit, pick you up etc. The car goes on to take someone else for shopping during the day, and so forth. With all electric vehicles, and modern composite materials, the maintenance requirements become minimal, allowing the vehicle to run 18 hours a day, and then take itself to a cheap car park for recharging,or a garage for required maintenance. The mode switches dramatically from owner operators to cell phone type service plans, and pay per use. You can bet that somewhere in GE, and Google this idea is being worked up right now. GE is the world's largest car leaser. It is a paradigm shift that is underway, rather than just a change in the needs or ways that insurers operate. Obviously, it is still premature but I suspect it is on its way. I like driving okay, but on long trips or in heavy traffic I would be happy to do something else,while the car takes me somewhere, without the stress of dealing with a cabbie or a fat guy taking half my seat.

I agree whole heartedly with this. If a.person likes/loves practicing law then necessity will breed invention. This young lady who writes this blog was offered a job in something related to personal finance because someone saw her potential on the blog. http://my-alternate-life.com/ She has no formal background in the topic; i.e certifications, education. A friend of mine I met wanted to get into value investing as a profession. He moved to Toronto, got an unrelated job crunching numbers at a mutual fund shop. He produced numerous very pro analyses and basically pestered local value shops. He got a job. I personally think that living at home, and refusing to relocate stifles the creativity/ desperation needed to push forward. If she is still single, she needs to upset the apple cart, move to a place that needs lawyers, and get on with it. I would guarantee a positive outcome. Being in real duress unleashes creativity - all assuming no mental health issues or addictions. On the other topic: A marriage/long term committed relationship is also a business relationship. Couples who dont treat it as such, have problems. Not romantic but true. The best way for her to meet a good partner is also the same as above. Unless your George Costanza, of course. I am not talking about gold digging BTW, just a stable adult relationship.

Now, Parsad, do you really want to see Rob Ford in Miley's underwear? Mr. Ford is not really incompetent, or particularly dishonest. He is certainly a buffoon, who appears to have an elbow bending problem that gets him into all kinds of interesting situations. For the record, these problems go back for years, when he was a city councillor. That he got elected continues to amaze me. q107, the local radio station, did a hilarious run down the other day on mayors of major north American Cities, who have exited their office in far more dubious circumstances. Montreal and Detroit have had back to back crooks. Then of course there is Marion Berry, who, incidentally is still a councillor in Washington. Of course, there is a certain well regarded premier of BC who was arrested in Hawaii going back to his hotel, driving drunk, after spending time with his mistress. As to your comments about Leafs Nation. I grew up in Hamilton, was born in Montreal, so that made me a different type of Hockey Fan. Every season I listen to Leafs fans with utmost pity as they discuss whether their team will make the playoffs this year... Dont set your goals too high, now. But then why would the Leafs bother with a good team when they are sold out for decades ahead.

Fairfax raised the money because they had to. Fortunately, it was raised above whatever BV is at. They had to raise the money because the long shot bets aren't working well. I'll never understand why they didn't collar their equity hedges early on when the hedging would have been very cheap. If the general market sinks, Resolute, BBRY, BKIR, and nearly all of their other investments would go down. If FFH didn't drop immediately with the general market, it would soon enough when MTM losses are reported (within 3 months of the market crash). Never mind that crashing markets are preceded by excessive margin debt. People would be forced to sell down their FFh holdings to cover margin calls. No matter which way you look at this FFh will be much cheaper in a market crash than it is today. If you have moved to cash along the way you will get a hedged FFh at a lower price than today.

Gio, Dating advice from nerds.... What were you thinking. ;) Its getting near evening over there. I hope it goes well. Cheers, Al.

Well, that equity issue is going to go over like a lead balloon. From number 4 above. Watsa has stated that 90% of his wealth is in FFH. He holds something just above 2 million shares. That puts him slightly above a billion. I have never figured where Journalists get the 4 or 5 billion numbers I have read. They are just plain wrong. He doesn't appear on the Forbes richest which has a cut off somewhere above a billion. You can easily reverse engineer Prems net worth considering he put himself through school selling vacuum cleaners. Its not really relevant to any discussion. He holds roughly 4 m BB shares on a look through basis. I haven't lost any respect for PW. Sometimes I question his choice of partners. Tom Ward gave me that slimy feeling when I first heard/saw him talk in person, as did the operator of Resolute. My background has taught me how to read people quickly. Of anything PW is too generous in his forgiveness of people's foibles. Fairfax is better off operating below the radar. The whole RIM debacle has been a completely unnecessary distraction. Of all the companies to get involved with, they had to choose the most high profile meltdown in Canada. Prem is honest, very capable, and has a fabulous track record. If The trading price was sub 300 I would be a buyer today. But it isn't. Its overvalued at the moment.

From Cardboard's post above: Now, let's consider some facts or the last 5 and 10 years returns in book value growth per share per the annual report: 5 year: 10.5% 10 year: 11.7% --–----------- This bears repeating since it is more redlective of where Fairfax is at Today. Where do you get 15% going forward? 10.5% would be more reasonable. This is why I sold out over a 2 year period, not the BBRY deal. That just got rid of the last 50 out of over 1000 shares.

Isn't it a little early to reach that conclusion? Show me how, given their present style?

Gio, follow on to that. I bought 100 shares of BMO around 6 years ago for 3100. It is now worth 7200, and has paid a 4.5 % dividend along the way. 100 shares of RBC. - also about 6 or 7 years : purchase: 3057; value today 7030. Similar dividend as well. An easy 15 % return. These are held in my kids RESP, untouched with no Drip plan.

Parsad, sorry, today I am bothering you… But I don’t think my expectations that FFH can grow BVPS at a CAGR of 15% for many years into the future are completely extravagant and unfounded… People on the board say “I am living in a bubble”, yet no one has convincingly explained why FFH should fail to achieve that goal. They must return circa 7% on their portfolio of investments, when historically they have returned 9.4%. I am not saying it will be easy, I am not saying they will succeed. All I am saying is I think my expectations are reasonable and don’t see why I should temper them. Here is, I think, something important: when you really want to invest in a business for the long-run, I mean you want to own a business for years, you can be neither too optimistic nor too conservative. Instead, you must be (at least vaguely) right. Why you shouldn’t be too optimistic is plain to see for everyone. Maybe, why you shouldn’t be too conservative, is less well understood. Yet, if you think of it, this also is clear enough: because, if you don’t know the true potential of a business, as soon as the stock rises, you will sell it. --TITAN giofranchi Gio, Sanj. said to temper your expectations ahead of the earnings when the stock was 10% higher. Gio, CAGR of 15% is nothing extraordinary. The Canadian banks have been doing this for 15 years. If you buy them at respective low points you could easily exceed 15%. And its not lumpy, and yu get paid well to wait. FFh used to outperform. There is no indication it will ever do so again.

Sanj, I dont disagree. In my case however, its not my emotions that got the better of me. The underlying investments by FFh are not thrilling me much. I have been selling down for 2 plus years. I was trying to hang onto the FFh shares in the Registered accounts but with very little growth potential going forward I had enough. I still maintain FFH needs to stabilize the cash flow with top notch operating companies, as Buffett has, and get rid of this lumpy earnings attitude. FFh is suffering from death by a thousand cuts right now. The combined ratios have turned some, but other investments are destroying gains made there. If they are going to operate a turn around shop, then they need to do what KKR does and take companies private, fix them up and IPO them. These half measures are availing them nothing in the end.

I concur. These are most of my reasons between your post, T-Bones, and Kravens.

I am out. No Fairfax shares at all for the first time in my investing career. Its just business.