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rb

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Posts posted by rb

    Brexit-- Implications for Markets and Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    It is odd, UK didn't even use the Euro. I mean the only other pillars really are free movement and common regulations for the market and a membership fee to participate. Really the ultimate end of all this is you go to the Costco model. Just a membership fee and that's it since it appears even free movement is objectionable.

    That's not an option. You can't just do membership fee. You have to do membership and free movement. I should point out that they also had a problem with the membership fee which actually wasn't that big and the people campaigning for Leave were really dishonest about and inflated it a lot.

    What are you buying today?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    OTCM

     

    Markets everywhere are still expensive in my view. There really weren't as many bargins today as I had hoped. Hard to see how equities sell off significantly though. I'm not that strong with these determinations but looked at several European financials today and book values seem substantially over-inflated.

    Pretty much spot on. Things aren't really down that much, especially given yesterday's rally. So if you weren't wild about valuations last week, you don't really care much for them today. I personally was looking to pick up some Diageo. I thought both it and the pound will go down, but wasn't meant to be.

    Brexit-- Implications for Markets and Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I didn't position myself with a bet on one side or another either. Just sat in the side. I expect that I'll be taking torpedoes on my Rolls-Royce position but i have plenty or dry powder to take advantage of opportunities such as Wells, USB or cetrain tech names that will do just fine no matter what happens to the EU but will get crushed in the next few days.

    Brexit-- Implications for Markets and Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    When is it that the Brits have ever been European? What a made up issue that is!  :o

    The brits have always gone around acting like their shit don't smell. My guess is they're gonna live to regret this one.

    I can't really put my finger on it, but i think maybe it was something a bit more like slick. When i lived there i got the feeling like their view was that if they screwed someone it was just a natural thing, but is someone gets the upper hand on them then it was a tragedy. Jut a bit of unsung arrogance.

    If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I wonder how many people have died, are refugees, are hungry or are still being mistreated because of Hillary's actions? Even the potential destruction of the EU via Brexit is likely a consequence of her actions in Libya, Syria and Iraq.

     

    And we are fixated on a business failure in Atlantic City???

     

    But go ahead, vote for Hillary and feel like you are doing the right thing.

     

    Cardboard

    I know, I know, and the fact that I got stuck in traffic this morning is likely Hillary's fault as well and I think that she also had something to do with the super-hot coffee I got from the barista. I think that potentially she's trying to kill me. On second thought, the barista looked more like a Bernie dude. Ugh the whole democratic establishment hates me!

     

    Btw, people aren't fixated with the business failure in Atlantic City. That is just a very public and well documented case in a string of business ventures that paint a picture of Donald Trump as someone who's only looking out for himself and wants doesn't care how many people he has to cheat or step on as long as he makes a buck. Not exactly what people are looking for in a leader. Reminds me of that WB saying. When you're looking for a manager you're looking at three qualities integrity, intelligence, and energy. The first one is the most important because if they don't have integrity you really want them to be stupid and lazy.

    If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    One real test is who has created more jobs & wealth

     

    The other question you need to ask yourself do you want the status quo or do you want the government to provide a service and get something done.  Who do you think would get the most deals done, the guy who does it for a living or the gal whose worked in the government and uses identity politics to get elected?  We have tried the later and the only time he could get things done was when his party controlled Congress.  As to trusting what Trump vs. what Clinton says I think you can trust neither.  So, in my mind it is not a absolute standard that I measure Trump against (he would be very lacking & I chose Kasich over him in that contest) but a relative one against Clinton.   

     

    Packer

     

    How is wealth and number of people under employment a real test? By the way there are serious doubts about how much of either Trump has created. I definitely wouldn't say it was spades.

     

    If wealth creation is a real test for the presidency then why even bother to hold an election. Problem solved - Gates/Buffett 2016 and let's skip the circus. Also your test basically says that any candidate who comes from business is automatically a superior candidate. That test would basically take out all of the great presidents over the past 100 years. No FDR, no Kennedy, and definitely no Regan. But we still get to keep Hoover and Bush 2. Fantastic test that is. Oh and the president that presided over the greatest job creation in US history also didn't have a business background.

     

    As for changing the status quo, what are you really saying? That as a reward for their obstructionism republicans should receive the White House so they stop keeping the government hostage? Is this the new American way? Give into extortion and pay the ransom.

    Brexit-- Implications for Markets and Stocks

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I am thinking of buying a relatively long term (Jan 2017) put spread to protect my portfolio ahead of this event and to avoid paying too much for volatility. The SPY seems to be best based on this:

     

    Seems to me that we will get a relief rally if Brexit does not pass and a sharp selloff if it does or common thinking. However, Yellen's discussion around tightening will come back right away if it does not pass with a July rate hike and related fear ahead of time should bail my position.

     

    What do you guys think?

    I agree with you about the sharp selloff. Though I don't think there's going to be much of a relief rally if they stay in. Things haven't really gone down so much on fear of exit, that's why the selloff if exit happens. Also yesterday was a pretty good day for stocks. So i don't think there's really much to rally from.

    Why are the Chinese still accepting a communist regime?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The best way to understand China is to simply visit China and witness the transformations (good and bad) over the last 3 decades with your own eyes before making a judgement.  And if one visit isn't enough, then go there every year or even every month to see the changes!

    I've been to China on fairly long trips 7 times in the past 10 years. One thing I've learned is that when one comes along and tells you authoritatively that one knows China, one doesn't know anything about China.

    If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I don't know if this is sinking in or not, but this is an election for the president of the United States. It is not supposed to be hilarious. It is not supposed to be fun. It is not supposed to be entertaining. It's not pop culture and it's not reality TV. It's drop dead serious stuff that affects a shitload of people's lives.

     

    I dont see this as any different than what they do on SNL. Its funny. Relax or youre gonna pop a arterie.

    I guess it's not really sinking in. SNL is a comedy show. This is the election for the president of the United States. And you have a quote in your signature that says "If you're capable of understanding the world you have a moral obligation to become rational."

     

    By the way, the word you were looking for is artery.

    Why are the Chinese still accepting a communist regime?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    What's happening is China is very interesting. I don't know if it's the first time this happened but it's certainly unique now. What's for sure that China is not communist anymore despite the name. Communism is an economic system not a political one. A system where all people through the state own all the capital. While it hasn't been so in practice. In theory you could have a democratic communist country.

     

    However, since China shifted its economic system to capitalism it's definitely not communist anymore. Not sure what it is anymore. Maybe some weird dictatorial capitalism like Pinochet's Chile without the psychopathic angle.

     

    It's also possible that the Chinese simply don't care much if they're a democracy or not. In Eastern Europe for example people's problem with the communist gov't wasn't really the lack of democracy. It was the economic failure and shortage of goods and the extensive domestic spying on citizens. For now the Chinese gov't tries not to piss the people off too much and the money in rolling in and life gets better. So why mess with a good thing? It will be interesting to see what happens when China will inevitably go through an economic crisis. I suspect things will get dicier.

    If American - which presidential candidate will you vote for?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If the Americans and the Fifth Fleet leaves the Persian Gulf tomorrow, how long before Iran tries to invade Saudi Arabia and other Gulf allies? How many deaths and refugees is that going to mean?

     

    Obama has tried appeasement with Iran, leaving town (Iraq) and not getting "too" involved in the region. Look at Syria as an example of where we did not get fully involved or Libya. Is that progress, success or the right direction long term for U.S. foreign policy?

     

    Then if you meet a Muslim originating from the Middle East, tell them the name Israel instead of Palestine and see the reaction.

     

    The problem is a lot more complex than people make it to be. You can stop all the bombing and involvement that you want from the U.S. or the West and death, war will still be raging.

     

    By the way, is the U.S. involvement responsible for terrorism in the Kashmir, Philippines, Nigeria?

     

    So yes, the West certainly has a share of responsibility for the hate that it is receiving but, that is not 100% of the story.

     

    Cardboard

    Of course the problem is more complicated that what people are making it out to be. It's the Middle East. Is anything simple there?

     

    However I'm not so sure that it's only the 5th fleet that keeps Iran from invading other countries. For example, Saudi Arabia with almost half a million active duty armed forces personnel and another 250,000 in reserve and a huge arsenal should be able to defend itself and its allies quite well.

     

    In regards to Libya, would it have been better if the West didn't bomb the shit out of it? Btw, I don't know if the US should own that cause it was France that started the bombing and Obama looked seriously pissed when that happened. Also we don't know if western powers were supporting or helping the rebels. But without foreign intervention wouldn't Qaddafi have been able to put out the revolt? It probably would have been ugly but probably better than the mess that's there now. I guess we'll never know.

     

    But we really shouldn't be surprised that people don't really like us after we bombed their homes and their cities.

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